Financial Performance: Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported total revenues of RMB8.46 billion (US$1.19 billion) for Q3 2025, a 20.6% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth in online music services and subscriptions, with net profit reaching RMB2.15 billion (US$302 million), up 36.0% from the previous year.
Operational Highlights: The company saw a 27.2% increase in revenues from online music services, with music subscriptions growing by 17.2%. Monthly ARPPU rose to RMB11.9, reflecting the success of the SVIP membership program and enhanced user engagement.
Content and Partnerships: TME expanded its music offerings by renewing contracts with popular artists and forming strategic partnerships with renowned labels, enhancing its catalog with diverse genres and live experiences, including successful concert tours for major artists.
User Engagement Innovations: The company introduced new features and membership offerings to improve user experience and loyalty, such as AI-generated content and enhanced sound features, contributing to increased SVIP adoption and user retention.
Wall Street analysts forecast TME stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TME is 26.13 USD with a low forecast of 21.00 USD and a high forecast of 29.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TME stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TME is 26.13 USD with a low forecast of 21.00 USD and a high forecast of 29.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.040
Low
21.00
Averages
26.13
High
29.00
Current: 16.040
Low
21.00
Averages
26.13
High
29.00
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$25
2025-12-22
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$25
AI Analysis
2025-12-22
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $25 from $27.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm reduced its bull case valuation by 17% to $28, given that approval of the Ximalaya deal may still take time, and increased its bear case by 1.8% to $16.80 as it rolled forward its valuation by three months, the analyst tells investors.
BofA
Neutral
downgrade
$25 -> $21
2025-11-26
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$25 -> $21
2025-11-26
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $21 from $25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after having hosted the company's investor relations team during the firm's AI Tech/Internet Conference on November 24. The firm, which lowered FY25-27 earnings forecasts and continues to believe the stock is fairly traded with no imminent re-rating catalyst, adds that it sees Tencent Music's core user-paying proposition as "untouched" by Bytedance's Soda Music.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for TME
Unlock Now
Benchmark
Buy
downgrade
$28 -> $25
2025-11-13
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$28 -> $25
2025-11-13
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Benchmark lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $25 from $28 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Tencent Music delivered "solid" Q3 results, but the firm trimmed its gross margin estimate as it believes a continued revenue mix shift toward lower-margin segments may intensify margin pressure in FY26. While the firm says it remains positive on the company's strategic positioning and growth outlook, it notes that the reversal of the company's multi-year margin expansion trend "could spark near-term investor debate."
Barclays
Overweight
maintain
$27 -> $28
2025-11-12
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$27 -> $28
2025-11-12
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $28 from $27 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q3 report. The firm believes Tencent's growth story is intact and sees a good entry point on the post-earnings selloff. Tencent in afternoon trading is down 8% to $19.01.
About TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group is a holding company mainly engaged in the provision and operation of online music entertainment platform. The Company is mainly engaged in the provision of online music services, social entertainment services and other services. The Company operates four major product brands, QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music and WeSing, through which the Company provides online music and social entertainment services to address the music entertainment needs of audience in China. The Company also offers Lazy Audio, the dedicated long-form audio app as a complement to the flagship music-centric product portfolio.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
