T. Rowe Price Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy TROW?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Miss: T. Rowe Price reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.44, falling short of expectations by $0.02, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth Weakness: The company generated $1.93 billion in revenue, a 6.0% year-over-year increase, yet it missed expectations by $10 million, suggesting challenges in sustaining revenue growth amid increasing market competition.
- Declining AUM: As of the reporting period, T. Rowe Price's assets under management (AUM) stood at $1.8 trillion, with a net client outflow of $25.5 billion, reflecting diminished client confidence in its investment products, which may impact future management fee income.
- Structural Issues: The structural challenges faced by T. Rowe Price are not easily rectified, potentially placing the company at a disadvantage in future market competition and affecting its long-term growth prospects.
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Analyst Views on TROW
Wall Street analysts forecast TROW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TROW is 113.83 USD with a low forecast of 102.00 USD and a high forecast of 128.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 94.580
Low
102.00
Averages
113.83
High
128.00
Current: 94.580
Low
102.00
Averages
113.83
High
128.00
About TROW
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. is a financial services holding company that provides global investment advisory services to investors. It provides a range of investment solutions across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternative capabilities for clients from individuals to advisors to institutions to retirement plan sponsors. It also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; trust services, and non-discretionary advisory services through model delivery. It distributes its array of active investment solutions through a diverse set of distribution channels and vehicles. These vehicles include an array of U.S. mutual funds, collective investment trusts, exchange-traded funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other sponsored products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
T. Rowe Price Stock Enters Oversold Territory
- Oversold Indicator Analysis: T. Rowe Price's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 29.7, below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating potential investment opportunities arising from recent stock price declines, particularly for dividend-seeking investors.
- Increased Dividend Yield: With the current share price at $97.073, TROW's annualized dividend stands at $5.08, translating to an annual yield of 5.23%, making it attractive for investors, especially in light of the recent price drop.
- Market Sentiment Shift: As the stock enters oversold territory, investors may perceive that the recent heavy selling is nearing exhaustion, prompting them to seek buying opportunities, which could lead to a future price rebound and bolster market confidence.
- Importance of Dividend History: While dividend predictability is often low, analyzing TROW's dividend history can assist investors in assessing the likelihood of continued dividend payments, thereby influencing their investment decisions.
See More
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- Earnings Impact: Super Micro Computer forecasts Q3 net sales significantly above expectations, leading to a stock price increase of over 13%, while Advanced Micro Devices saw its stock drop more than 15% due to weak Q1 sales forecasts, reflecting a cautious market outlook on tech stocks.
- Mixed Economic Data: The January ADP employment change rose by 22,000, below the expected 45,000, while the ISM services index remained steady at 53.8, stronger than the anticipated decline to 53.5, highlighting the complexities of economic recovery that could influence future monetary policy.
- Mortgage Applications Decline: MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.9% for the week ending January 30, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 14.4%, indicating weakened housing demand that may negatively impact the real estate market.
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T. Rowe Price Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Asset Management Growth: T. Rowe Price concluded 2025 with $1.78 trillion in assets under management, reflecting over 10% growth from the start of the year, despite $56.9 billion in net outflows, indicating resilience amid market volatility and challenges.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q4 was $2.44, bringing the full-year adjusted EPS to $9.72, which is a 4.2% increase from 2024, showcasing the company's ongoing growth in asset management and investment advisory revenue.
- Strategic Partnerships and Product Innovation: The firm established a strategic collaboration with Goldman Sachs, launched the first co-branded model portfolios, and plans to introduce an active crypto ETF in 2026, demonstrating its innovative capabilities in wealth management and retirement products.
- Expense Management Outlook: The company anticipates a 3% to 6% increase in adjusted operating expenses for 2026, with management emphasizing continued investment in ETFs, alternatives, and global partnerships to navigate market uncertainties and evolving client demands.
See More
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- Earnings Miss: T. Rowe Price reported an adjusted EPS of $2.44 for Q4 2025, falling short of the $2.46 analyst estimate and down from $2.81 in the previous quarter, although it improved from $2.12 a year ago, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Revenue Decline: The net revenue for Q4 was $1.93 billion, slightly below the consensus of $1.94 billion, despite an increase from $1.89 billion in Q3, reflecting a lack of robust revenue growth that could undermine investor confidence.
- Increased Client Outflows: The firm experienced net client outflows of $25.5 billion in Q4, primarily driven by $23.2 billion in equity outflows, significantly higher than the $7.9 billion outflows in Q3, which could negatively impact the firm's asset management scale and market position.
- Assets Under Management Fluctuation: As of December 31, 2025, assets under management totaled $1.78 trillion, up from $1.77 trillion at the end of Q3, but market appreciation and income added only $16.3 billion, a stark contrast to the $89.1 billion in Q3, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
See More
T. Rowe Price Stock Enters Oversold Territory
- Oversold Indicator Analysis: T. Rowe Price's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 29.7, below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating potential investment opportunities arising from recent stock price declines, particularly for dividend-seeking investors.
- Increased Dividend Yield: With the current share price at $97.073, TROW's annualized dividend stands at $5.08, translating to an annual yield of 5.23%, making it attractive for investors, especially in light of the recent price drop.
- Market Sentiment Shift: As the stock enters oversold territory, investors may perceive that the recent heavy selling is nearing exhaustion, prompting them to seek buying opportunities, which could lead to a future price rebound and bolster market confidence.
- Importance of Dividend History: While dividend predictability is often low, analyzing TROW's dividend history can assist investors in assessing the likelihood of continued dividend payments, thereby influencing their investment decisions.
See More
US Stocks Close Mixed: Nasdaq Hits Seven-Week Low
- Chipmaker Sell-off: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) plunged over 17% after analysts issued a weak Q1 sales forecast, raising concerns about AI demand and pressuring the broader tech sector, particularly high-flying stocks.
- Super Micro Computer Surge: Super Micro Computer's stock rose more than 13% after forecasting Q3 net sales of at least $12.3 billion, significantly above the consensus estimate of $10.25 billion, indicating strong growth potential in a competitive market.
- Mixed Economic Data: The January ADP employment change rose by 22,000, falling short of the expected 45,000, while the ISM services index remained unchanged at 53.8, exceeding expectations, reflecting the complexities of economic recovery that may influence future monetary policy.
- Improved Market Sentiment: Market sentiment improved following President Trump's signing of a government funding deal, although the agreement only funds the Department of Homeland Security through February 13, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in government operations.
See More
US Stocks Waver Amid Mixed Earnings and Tech Rotation
- Market Fluctuations: The S&P 500 Index is up 0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.54%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 0.56%, indicating the complexity of market sentiment amid mixed corporate earnings results.
- Divergent Corporate Performance: Super Micro Computer forecasts Q3 net sales of at least $12.3 billion, significantly above the $10.25 billion consensus, leading to a stock price increase of over 15%; conversely, Advanced Micro Devices' weak Q1 sales forecast results in a stock decline of over 13%, reflecting a reassessment of tech stocks.
- Labor Market Signals: The January ADP employment change rose by 22,000, below the expected 45,000, indicating weakness in the labor market that could influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Government Funding Plan: The funding package signed by President Trump extends funding for the Department of Homeland Security through February 13, while other departments are funded until September 30, alleviating concerns over a government shutdown and boosting investor confidence.
See More
Mixed US Stock Market with Pressure on Chip Stocks
- Market Divergence: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.11% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.05%, indicating a divergence in market sentiment, particularly with underperforming tech stocks potentially affecting investor confidence.
- Earnings Impact: Super Micro Computer forecasts Q3 net sales significantly above expectations, leading to a stock price increase of over 13%, while Advanced Micro Devices saw its stock drop more than 15% due to weak Q1 sales forecasts, reflecting a cautious market outlook on tech stocks.
- Mixed Economic Data: The January ADP employment change rose by 22,000, below the expected 45,000, while the ISM services index remained steady at 53.8, stronger than the anticipated decline to 53.5, highlighting the complexities of economic recovery that could influence future monetary policy.
- Mortgage Applications Decline: MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.9% for the week ending January 30, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 14.4%, indicating weakened housing demand that may negatively impact the real estate market.
See More
T. Rowe Price Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Asset Management Growth: T. Rowe Price concluded 2025 with $1.78 trillion in assets under management, reflecting over 10% growth from the start of the year, despite $56.9 billion in net outflows, indicating resilience amid market volatility and challenges.
- Profitability Improvement: The adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q4 was $2.44, bringing the full-year adjusted EPS to $9.72, which is a 4.2% increase from 2024, showcasing the company's ongoing growth in asset management and investment advisory revenue.
- Strategic Partnerships and Product Innovation: The firm established a strategic collaboration with Goldman Sachs, launched the first co-branded model portfolios, and plans to introduce an active crypto ETF in 2026, demonstrating its innovative capabilities in wealth management and retirement products.
- Expense Management Outlook: The company anticipates a 3% to 6% increase in adjusted operating expenses for 2026, with management emphasizing continued investment in ETFs, alternatives, and global partnerships to navigate market uncertainties and evolving client demands.
See More
T. Rowe Price Reports Q4 Earnings Miss Amid Client Outflows
- Earnings Miss: T. Rowe Price reported an adjusted EPS of $2.44 for Q4 2025, falling short of the $2.46 analyst estimate and down from $2.81 in the previous quarter, although it improved from $2.12 a year ago, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Revenue Decline: The net revenue for Q4 was $1.93 billion, slightly below the consensus of $1.94 billion, despite an increase from $1.89 billion in Q3, reflecting a lack of robust revenue growth that could undermine investor confidence.
- Increased Client Outflows: The firm experienced net client outflows of $25.5 billion in Q4, primarily driven by $23.2 billion in equity outflows, significantly higher than the $7.9 billion outflows in Q3, which could negatively impact the firm's asset management scale and market position.
- Assets Under Management Fluctuation: As of December 31, 2025, assets under management totaled $1.78 trillion, up from $1.77 trillion at the end of Q3, but market appreciation and income added only $16.3 billion, a stark contrast to the $89.1 billion in Q3, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
See More
