SiriusXM updates FCF outlook to reflect impact of Liberty Media deal (NASDAQ:SIRI)
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 10 2024
0mins
Should l Buy SIRI?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Sirius XM's New Chapter: Sirius XM Holdings has transitioned to an independent public company with a simplified capital structure after completing its transaction with Liberty Media, projecting approximately $8.75 billion in revenue and $1.0 billion in free cash flow for 2024.
Stock Repurchase and Dividend Plans: The company authorized a $1.166 billion stock repurchase program and plans to maintain a recurring dividend of about 27 cents per quarter, with its common stock set to trade under the ticker "SIRI" starting September 10, 2024.
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Analyst Views on SIRI
Wall Street analysts forecast SIRI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SIRI is 23.13 USD with a low forecast of 18.00 USD and a high forecast of 30.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 22.600
Low
18.00
Averages
23.13
High
30.00
Current: 22.600
Low
18.00
Averages
23.13
High
30.00
About SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is an audio entertainment company in North America. The Company has a portfolio of audio businesses, including its flagship subscription entertainment service SiriusXM; the ad-supported and premium music streaming services of Pandora; an expansive podcast network, and a suite of business and advertising solutions. Its segments include Sirius XM and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment features music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic and news channels and other content, as well as podcasts and infotainment services, in the United States on a subscription fee basis. Sirius XM's packages include live, curated, and certain exclusive and on-demand programming. The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates a music, comedy, and podcast streaming discovery platform, offering a personalized experience for each listener wherever and whenever they want to listen, whether through mobile devices, vehicle speakers or connected devices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SiriusXM Q4 Mixed Results, Subscriber Loss Weighs on Stock
- Earnings Overview: SiriusXM reported mixed fiscal Q4 2025 results with total revenue of $2.19 billion remaining flat year-over-year but slightly exceeding analyst expectations, while GAAP earnings significantly missed estimates, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Subscriber Loss Concern: The company lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers in Q4, raising serious concerns about future revenue stability and highlighting challenges in customer retention amid increasing competition in the streaming sector.
- Stock Performance: Following the earnings report, SiriusXM shares initially gained but fell 2.61% to $22.02 due to the subscriber loss revelation, reflecting market worries about the company's future outlook.
- Technical Analysis: Currently, SiriusXM's stock is trading 3.6% above its 20-day simple moving average but 0.2% below its 100-day average, indicating short-term strength while facing long-term challenges, with key support at $20.50, where a drop could lead to further declines.
See More
Sirius XM Reports Strong Earnings, Stock Surges
- Financial Recovery: Sirius XM reported revenue of $2.19 billion, a slight increase of 0.2%, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of revenue decline, indicating a gradual recovery in challenging times.
- Positive User Growth: The company added 110,000 self-pay net subscribers in the last three months of the year, showing progress in attracting new customers despite a decline in total subscribers from 35 million in 2019 to 33 million today.
- Record Retention Rate: The monthly churn rate for the fourth quarter hit a historic low of 1.4%, reflecting improved customer loyalty, while ad revenue increased due to better monetization of podcast and celebrity content.
- Increased Shareholder Confidence: Sirius XM's largest shareholder, Berkshire Hathaway, has been increasing its stake during the stock's decline, now owning over 37%, which demonstrates strong confidence and support for the company's future prospects.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings on Top Stocks
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several stocks, including upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, reflecting the latest market views and expectations for these companies.
- Market Reaction: While specific stocks were not mentioned, such rating changes typically influence investor decisions and may lead to price volatility in the affected stocks.
- Investor Focus: Investors considering buying PI stock should pay attention to analysts' opinions to better assess potential investment risks and returns.
- Source of Information: This information is provided by Benzinga, highlighting the significance of analyst ratings in investment decisions, especially in a rapidly changing market environment.
See More
Sirius XM Surpasses Quarterly Expectations, Shares Rise 11%
- Strong Financial Performance: Sirius XM reported fourth-quarter GAAP earnings of $0.24 per share and revenue of $2.19 billion, exceeding expectations and remaining flat year-over-year, indicating stability and profitability in the audio entertainment sector.
- Free Cash Flow Growth: The company achieved a 24% increase in free cash flow to $1.26 billion for 2025, surpassing prior guidance, primarily due to the elimination of transaction-related costs and reduced capital expenditures, showcasing effective financial management.
- Cost Savings Exceed Targets: Sirius XM delivered $250 million in incremental cost savings, exceeding its $200 million target, with a 16% reduction in sales and marketing expenses and a 9% decline in product and technology costs, further enhancing profitability.
- Stable Future Outlook: The company forecasts free cash flow of approximately $1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA of around $2.6 billion for 2026, indicating sustained growth potential over the next few years, despite overall revenue expectations slightly below market consensus.
See More
SiriusXM Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: SiriusXM reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.19 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA at $691 million, indicating robust performance in revenue and profitability, while management projects 2026 revenue to remain around $8.5 billion, showcasing cautious optimism for the future.
- Cash Flow Growth: The company achieved $1.26 billion in free cash flow for 2025, up year-over-year, with a target of reaching $1.5 billion by 2027, demonstrating ongoing efforts in cash management and investment returns.
- Content Expansion and Partnerships: SiriusXM signed a new three-year agreement with Howard Stern and launched new content channels including Metallica and Unwell Music, enhancing its competitive position in the audio content market while increasing user engagement.
- Cost Control and Efficiency Gains: The company realized approximately $250 million in incremental gross cost savings for 2025, with sales and marketing expenses down 16% year-over-year, reflecting SiriusXM's success in optimizing operations and improving efficiency, with expectations to maintain this trend in 2026.
See More
Sirius XM Reports Better-Than-Expected Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Highlights: Sirius XM reported $2.19 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $691 million for Q4 2022, both exceeding market expectations, showcasing the company's resilience amid a challenging earnings season.
- Subscriber Growth: The company added 118,000 net subscribers in Q4, a significant increase from 11,000 in Q3, indicating a potential recovery in its user base that could enhance future revenue prospects.
- Cash Flow Improvement: Quarterly free cash flow improved by 5% year-over-year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and providing stronger support for future investments and dividend payments.
- Dividend Appeal: With a forward-looking yield of 5.2%, Sirius XM may attract investors seeking safe havens in the current market environment, although short-term stock volatility remains a concern.
See More
SiriusXM Q4 Mixed Results, Subscriber Loss Weighs on Stock
- Earnings Overview: SiriusXM reported mixed fiscal Q4 2025 results with total revenue of $2.19 billion remaining flat year-over-year but slightly exceeding analyst expectations, while GAAP earnings significantly missed estimates, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Subscriber Loss Concern: The company lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers in Q4, raising serious concerns about future revenue stability and highlighting challenges in customer retention amid increasing competition in the streaming sector.
- Stock Performance: Following the earnings report, SiriusXM shares initially gained but fell 2.61% to $22.02 due to the subscriber loss revelation, reflecting market worries about the company's future outlook.
- Technical Analysis: Currently, SiriusXM's stock is trading 3.6% above its 20-day simple moving average but 0.2% below its 100-day average, indicating short-term strength while facing long-term challenges, with key support at $20.50, where a drop could lead to further declines.
See More
Sirius XM Reports Strong Earnings, Stock Surges
- Financial Recovery: Sirius XM reported revenue of $2.19 billion, a slight increase of 0.2%, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of revenue decline, indicating a gradual recovery in challenging times.
- Positive User Growth: The company added 110,000 self-pay net subscribers in the last three months of the year, showing progress in attracting new customers despite a decline in total subscribers from 35 million in 2019 to 33 million today.
- Record Retention Rate: The monthly churn rate for the fourth quarter hit a historic low of 1.4%, reflecting improved customer loyalty, while ad revenue increased due to better monetization of podcast and celebrity content.
- Increased Shareholder Confidence: Sirius XM's largest shareholder, Berkshire Hathaway, has been increasing its stake during the stock's decline, now owning over 37%, which demonstrates strong confidence and support for the company's future prospects.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings on Top Stocks
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several stocks, including upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, reflecting the latest market views and expectations for these companies.
- Market Reaction: While specific stocks were not mentioned, such rating changes typically influence investor decisions and may lead to price volatility in the affected stocks.
- Investor Focus: Investors considering buying PI stock should pay attention to analysts' opinions to better assess potential investment risks and returns.
- Source of Information: This information is provided by Benzinga, highlighting the significance of analyst ratings in investment decisions, especially in a rapidly changing market environment.
See More
Sirius XM Surpasses Quarterly Expectations, Shares Rise 11%
- Strong Financial Performance: Sirius XM reported fourth-quarter GAAP earnings of $0.24 per share and revenue of $2.19 billion, exceeding expectations and remaining flat year-over-year, indicating stability and profitability in the audio entertainment sector.
- Free Cash Flow Growth: The company achieved a 24% increase in free cash flow to $1.26 billion for 2025, surpassing prior guidance, primarily due to the elimination of transaction-related costs and reduced capital expenditures, showcasing effective financial management.
- Cost Savings Exceed Targets: Sirius XM delivered $250 million in incremental cost savings, exceeding its $200 million target, with a 16% reduction in sales and marketing expenses and a 9% decline in product and technology costs, further enhancing profitability.
- Stable Future Outlook: The company forecasts free cash flow of approximately $1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA of around $2.6 billion for 2026, indicating sustained growth potential over the next few years, despite overall revenue expectations slightly below market consensus.
See More
SiriusXM Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: SiriusXM reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.19 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA at $691 million, indicating robust performance in revenue and profitability, while management projects 2026 revenue to remain around $8.5 billion, showcasing cautious optimism for the future.
- Cash Flow Growth: The company achieved $1.26 billion in free cash flow for 2025, up year-over-year, with a target of reaching $1.5 billion by 2027, demonstrating ongoing efforts in cash management and investment returns.
- Content Expansion and Partnerships: SiriusXM signed a new three-year agreement with Howard Stern and launched new content channels including Metallica and Unwell Music, enhancing its competitive position in the audio content market while increasing user engagement.
- Cost Control and Efficiency Gains: The company realized approximately $250 million in incremental gross cost savings for 2025, with sales and marketing expenses down 16% year-over-year, reflecting SiriusXM's success in optimizing operations and improving efficiency, with expectations to maintain this trend in 2026.
See More
Sirius XM Reports Better-Than-Expected Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Highlights: Sirius XM reported $2.19 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $691 million for Q4 2022, both exceeding market expectations, showcasing the company's resilience amid a challenging earnings season.
- Subscriber Growth: The company added 118,000 net subscribers in Q4, a significant increase from 11,000 in Q3, indicating a potential recovery in its user base that could enhance future revenue prospects.
- Cash Flow Improvement: Quarterly free cash flow improved by 5% year-over-year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and providing stronger support for future investments and dividend payments.
- Dividend Appeal: With a forward-looking yield of 5.2%, Sirius XM may attract investors seeking safe havens in the current market environment, although short-term stock volatility remains a concern.
See More
