Sees FY26 Adjusted EBITDA at $1.3B-$1.7B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
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Should l Buy BLDR?
Sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $1.3B-$1.7B.
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Analyst Views on BLDR
Wall Street analysts forecast BLDR stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 113.900
Low
109.41
Averages
124.28
High
150.00
Current: 113.900
Low
109.41
Averages
124.28
High
150.00
About BLDR
Builders FirstSource, Inc. is a supplier of building products, prefabricated components, and value-added services to the professional market segment for new residential construction and repair and remodeling. It provides customers with an integrated homebuilding solution, offering manufacturing, supply, delivery and installation of a full range of structural and related building products. Its product categories include Manufactured Products; Windows, Doors and Millwork; Specialty Building Products and Services, and Lumber and Lumber Sheet Goods. It serves customers from distribution and manufacturing facilities (some of which are co-located) that produce value-added products such as roof and floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, vinyl windows, custom millwork and pre-hung doors. It also distributes dimensional lumber and lumber sheet goods, millwork, windows, interior and exterior doors, and other specialty building products. It operates in 43 states with approximately 585 locations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Builders FirstSource Reports Weaker-Than-Expected Quarter
- Disappointing Earnings: Builders FirstSource reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.12, missing the analyst consensus of $1.22, indicating ongoing pressure in core markets that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Sales Decline: The company posted quarterly sales of $3.358 billion, down 12.1% year-over-year, falling short of the Street's expectation of $3.459 billion, reflecting dual pressures from lower core organic net sales and commodity deflation.
- Decreased Profitability: Gross profit was $1.0 billion compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with gross profit margin decreasing by 250 basis points to 29.8%, primarily driven by a below-normal starts environment, which could lead to sustained pressure on future profitability.
- Cautious Outlook: Builders FirstSource expects fiscal 2026 sales between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, while planning to deliver $50 million to $70 million in productivity savings in 2026, reflecting a cautious stance in an uncertain market environment.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Sales Decline: In Q4 2025, Builders FirstSource reported a 12% decrease in sales to $3.4 billion, primarily driven by weak core organic sales and commodity deflation, indicating a challenging sales environment that may negatively impact future performance.
- Significant EBITDA Drop: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $275 million, down approximately 44% year-over-year, primarily due to lower gross profit, reflecting increased financial pressure that could affect profitability.
- Capital Expenditures and Consolidation: The company invested $86 million in capital expenditures in 2025 and consolidated 25 facilities during the year, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through resource optimization, demonstrating efforts in cost management despite market challenges.
- Cautious 2026 Outlook: Builders FirstSource's guidance for 2026 indicates net sales between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment with expectations of flat single-family and multifamily starts, suggesting limited growth prospects.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Decline: Net sales for Q4 2025 decreased by 12% to $3.4 billion, with single-family and multifamily sales dropping by 15% and 20% respectively, highlighting the direct impact of market weakness and ongoing housing affordability challenges on the company's performance.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company executed several acquisitions in 2025, including Pleasant Valley Homes, aimed at addressing challenges in the housing industry by providing cost-competitive factory-built options, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Digital Transformation: The digital platform processed nearly $7 billion in quotes through 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of over 130%, indicating that the company's ongoing investment in digital transformation has become integral to its operations, improving business efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Guidance for 2026 includes net sales projected between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion; despite a persistently weak market environment, the company is laying the groundwork for future growth through strategic investments and cost controls.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Disappointing Earnings: Builders FirstSource reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.12, missing expectations by $0.16, indicating a significant decline in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company's Q4 revenue of $3.4 billion represents a 10.5% year-over-year decrease, falling short of market expectations by $60 million, reflecting a weak demand environment for building materials.
- Significant EBITDA Drop: Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 44.3% to $274.9 million, primarily driven by lower gross margins and reduced operating leverage, highlighting challenges in cost management.
- Cautious Outlook: The company projects net sales for 2026 to range between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion, indicating potential growth but necessitating close monitoring of market fluctuations' impact on performance.
See More
Key Companies to Monitor This Week: PCE, Walmart, Palo Alto, Analog Devices, Deere, and Others
- Market Performance: Equities experienced a decline last week, with all three major indexes falling by at least 1.2%.
- Economic Indicators: This downturn occurred despite a better-than-expected jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a relatively stable inflation report.
See More
Builders FirstSource Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement: Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 17 before the market opens, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.28, reflecting a 44.6% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $3.46 billion, down 8.9% year-over-year.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, BLDR has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a strong track record of financial performance.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have also experienced one upward revision and six downward revisions, suggesting a cautious market outlook for the company.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Despite analysts maintaining a neutral stance on Builders FirstSource, suggesting it is neither worth shorting nor overly exciting, there remains a level of market interest regarding the company's future profitability.
See More
Builders FirstSource Reports Weaker-Than-Expected Quarter
- Disappointing Earnings: Builders FirstSource reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.12, missing the analyst consensus of $1.22, indicating ongoing pressure in core markets that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Sales Decline: The company posted quarterly sales of $3.358 billion, down 12.1% year-over-year, falling short of the Street's expectation of $3.459 billion, reflecting dual pressures from lower core organic net sales and commodity deflation.
- Decreased Profitability: Gross profit was $1.0 billion compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with gross profit margin decreasing by 250 basis points to 29.8%, primarily driven by a below-normal starts environment, which could lead to sustained pressure on future profitability.
- Cautious Outlook: Builders FirstSource expects fiscal 2026 sales between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, while planning to deliver $50 million to $70 million in productivity savings in 2026, reflecting a cautious stance in an uncertain market environment.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Sales Decline: In Q4 2025, Builders FirstSource reported a 12% decrease in sales to $3.4 billion, primarily driven by weak core organic sales and commodity deflation, indicating a challenging sales environment that may negatively impact future performance.
- Significant EBITDA Drop: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $275 million, down approximately 44% year-over-year, primarily due to lower gross profit, reflecting increased financial pressure that could affect profitability.
- Capital Expenditures and Consolidation: The company invested $86 million in capital expenditures in 2025 and consolidated 25 facilities during the year, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through resource optimization, demonstrating efforts in cost management despite market challenges.
- Cautious 2026 Outlook: Builders FirstSource's guidance for 2026 indicates net sales between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment with expectations of flat single-family and multifamily starts, suggesting limited growth prospects.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Decline: Net sales for Q4 2025 decreased by 12% to $3.4 billion, with single-family and multifamily sales dropping by 15% and 20% respectively, highlighting the direct impact of market weakness and ongoing housing affordability challenges on the company's performance.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company executed several acquisitions in 2025, including Pleasant Valley Homes, aimed at addressing challenges in the housing industry by providing cost-competitive factory-built options, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Digital Transformation: The digital platform processed nearly $7 billion in quotes through 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of over 130%, indicating that the company's ongoing investment in digital transformation has become integral to its operations, improving business efficiency.
- Future Outlook: Guidance for 2026 includes net sales projected between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion; despite a persistently weak market environment, the company is laying the groundwork for future growth through strategic investments and cost controls.
See More
Builders FirstSource Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Disappointing Earnings: Builders FirstSource reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.12, missing expectations by $0.16, indicating a significant decline in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company's Q4 revenue of $3.4 billion represents a 10.5% year-over-year decrease, falling short of market expectations by $60 million, reflecting a weak demand environment for building materials.
- Significant EBITDA Drop: Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 44.3% to $274.9 million, primarily driven by lower gross margins and reduced operating leverage, highlighting challenges in cost management.
- Cautious Outlook: The company projects net sales for 2026 to range between $14.8 billion and $15.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion, indicating potential growth but necessitating close monitoring of market fluctuations' impact on performance.
See More
Key Companies to Monitor This Week: PCE, Walmart, Palo Alto, Analog Devices, Deere, and Others
- Market Performance: Equities experienced a decline last week, with all three major indexes falling by at least 1.2%.
- Economic Indicators: This downturn occurred despite a better-than-expected jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a relatively stable inflation report.
See More
Builders FirstSource Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement: Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 17 before the market opens, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.28, reflecting a 44.6% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $3.46 billion, down 8.9% year-over-year.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, BLDR has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a strong track record of financial performance.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have also experienced one upward revision and six downward revisions, suggesting a cautious market outlook for the company.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Despite analysts maintaining a neutral stance on Builders FirstSource, suggesting it is neither worth shorting nor overly exciting, there remains a level of market interest regarding the company's future profitability.
See More
