Royal Caribbean (RCL) Lowers Q4 EPS Estimate to $17.95 Amid Capacity Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 14 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RCL?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Downgrade: Citi Research has lowered Royal Caribbean's Q4 EPS estimate by $0.06 to $17.95, reflecting concerns over FY26 yield guidance likely falling below expectations, which may impact investor confidence.
- Supply-Demand Pressure: Analysts indicate that oversaturation in the Caribbean market and a slowdown in demand could lead to a decline in Q4 performance, with Q1 expected to face even greater challenges affecting overall industry performance.
- Revenue Forecast Adjustment: Royal Caribbean's Q4 is projected to generate $4.28 billion in sales, a 13% year-over-year increase, but capacity issues have led to a yield estimate reduction to 2.65%, below the market consensus of 3.0%.
- Increased Stock Volatility: Royal Caribbean shares fell another 4% on Wednesday, extending a three-day decline to 10%, reflecting market concerns about the company's future performance and negative investor sentiment.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy RCL?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on RCL
Wall Street analysts forecast RCL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RCL is 327.80 USD with a low forecast of 275.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 348.000
Low
275.00
Averages
327.80
High
400.00
Current: 348.000
Low
275.00
Averages
327.80
High
400.00
About RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a cruise company, which owns and operates three global cruise brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises. It also has an interest in TUI Cruises GmbH, which operates the German brands TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. Its ships offer a selection of worldwide itineraries that call on approximately 1,000 destinations on all seven continents. Royal Caribbean International offers cruises and land destinations that generally feature a casual ambiance, as well as a variety of activities and entertainment venues. Celebrity Cruises offers a range of itineraries to destinations, including Alaska, Asia, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, the Galapagos Islands, Hawaii, New Zealand, the Panama Canal and South America, with cruise lengths ranging from three to 14 nights. It also offers a range of private land destinations through Perfect Day at CocoCay, includes full water park, zip line course, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Royal Caribbean Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid Strong Demand
- Earnings Meet Expectations: Royal Caribbean reported adjusted earnings of $2.80 per share for the fourth quarter, aligning with Wall Street expectations, which reflects the company's stable profitability and enhanced market confidence.
- Revenue Growth Drivers: The company experienced net yield growth of approximately 2.5% on a constant-currency basis, with reported net yields increasing over 3%, indicating that higher pricing and strong onboard spending have boosted revenue per passenger.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management guided for 2026 adjusted earnings to be between $17.70 and $18.10 per share, slightly above current market projections, reinforcing the view of robust demand for cruising, with net yield growth expected to outpace cost inflation.
- Strong Stock Recovery: Royal Caribbean shares rose 5.52% to $344.16 at the time of publication, indicating strong short-term momentum, with the stock trading 14.3% above its 20-day and 20.1% above its 50-day simple moving averages, reflecting a sustained market recovery.
See More
Trump Signs Tariff Order Against Cuba Oil Suppliers
- Tariff Policy Implementation: President Trump signed an executive order last Thursday imposing tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, aiming to sever the island's ties with alternative suppliers like Mexico and Russia, thereby further isolating its economy.
- Economic Crisis Intensifies: Following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Cuba has lost its primary source of subsidized oil, leading to a near-collapse of its economy and a drastic reduction in oil supplies, exacerbating the hardships faced by its citizens.
- Political Transition Expectations: Traders in the market are betting on a power transition in Cuba by the end of the year, with a 55% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be replaced, while the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Cuba stands at only 26%, indicating confidence in achieving regime change through non-military means.
- Cruise Market Potential: A reopening of Cuba could fundamentally alter the Caribbean tourism landscape, as demand for Cuba sailings was 20% higher than for Bahamas cruises between 2016 and 2019, and a democratic transition could present significant profit opportunities for U.S. cruise lines.
See More
Royal Caribbean Launches River Cruise Business with Expanded Fleet
- Strong Market Demand: Royal Caribbean is launching a river cruise business through its upscale Celebrity brand, and due to surging demand, the cruise line has doubled its expected fleet size from 10 to 20 ships, indicating a significant interest in high-end river cruising that could reshape the industry landscape.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With Royal Caribbean's entry, long-time river cruise leader Viking may face heightened competitive pressure, prompting a reassessment of its market strategy to maintain its market share in the evolving landscape.
- Investor Attention: Investors in Viking should closely monitor Royal Caribbean's expansion plans, particularly regarding their potential impact on the high-end market, which could influence Viking's stock performance and future growth expectations.
- Shifting Industry Dynamics: This move by Royal Caribbean not only reflects a rising consumer interest in river cruising but may also compel other cruise lines to reconsider their product offerings and market positioning to adapt to the new market demands.
See More
Amazon's Huge Capital Spending Leads to Futures Losses and Bitcoin Bounce
- Market Volatility: Futures markets pared losses after the stock market broke key levels, indicating investor concerns about future economic prospects, which could lead to short-term market instability.
- Amazon's Capital Spending: Amazon's stock fell due to significant capital expenditures, reflecting the company's aggressive strategy in expansion and infrastructure investment, which may impact its short-term profitability.
- Bitcoin Bounce: Despite overall market pressure, Bitcoin saw a slight bounce, indicating a demand for digital assets as a safe haven in uncertain market conditions, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Investor Sentiment: The market's strong reaction to Amazon's spending may lead investors to reassess the risk and return of tech stocks, influencing overall investment strategies.
See More
Stock Market Plummets Amid Amazon Earnings Miss
- Market Decline: The stock market experienced a significant sell-off on Thursday, with major indices declining broadly, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, which have dampened market confidence.
- Bitcoin Crash: Bitcoin prices fell sharply, driven by a bearish market sentiment as investors rushed to sell off crypto assets, likely due to concerns over increased regulation in the crypto market and a general rise in risk aversion.
- Amazon Earnings Miss: Amazon's stock price dropped following its earnings report, primarily due to concerns over its massive capital spending plans, which raised investor apprehensions about future profitability, highlighting the tension between expansion and earnings.
- Capital Expenditure Impact: While Amazon's capital expenditure plans aim to drive long-term growth, they may negatively affect cash flow and shareholder returns in the short term, leading to lowered market expectations for its future performance.
See More
Stock Market Plummets as Amazon Reports Disappointing Earnings
- Market Decline: The stock market experienced a significant sell-off on Thursday, with major indices declining broadly, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook, which may dampen market confidence and influence short-term investment decisions.
- Bitcoin Crash: Bitcoin prices fell sharply, contributing to a gloomy market sentiment, as investor confidence in cryptocurrencies wanes, potentially leading to further capital outflows from this asset class and affecting the stock performance of related companies.
- Amazon's Disappointing Earnings: Amazon's stock dropped following its earnings report, primarily due to concerns over its massive capital spending plans, which may prompt a reassessment of its long-term growth potential by the market.
- Impact of Capital Expenditure: While Amazon's capital expenditure plans aim to expand its business, they may exert pressure on cash flow in the short term, thereby affecting its stock performance and investor confidence.
See More
Royal Caribbean Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid Strong Demand
- Earnings Meet Expectations: Royal Caribbean reported adjusted earnings of $2.80 per share for the fourth quarter, aligning with Wall Street expectations, which reflects the company's stable profitability and enhanced market confidence.
- Revenue Growth Drivers: The company experienced net yield growth of approximately 2.5% on a constant-currency basis, with reported net yields increasing over 3%, indicating that higher pricing and strong onboard spending have boosted revenue per passenger.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management guided for 2026 adjusted earnings to be between $17.70 and $18.10 per share, slightly above current market projections, reinforcing the view of robust demand for cruising, with net yield growth expected to outpace cost inflation.
- Strong Stock Recovery: Royal Caribbean shares rose 5.52% to $344.16 at the time of publication, indicating strong short-term momentum, with the stock trading 14.3% above its 20-day and 20.1% above its 50-day simple moving averages, reflecting a sustained market recovery.
See More
Trump Signs Tariff Order Against Cuba Oil Suppliers
- Tariff Policy Implementation: President Trump signed an executive order last Thursday imposing tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, aiming to sever the island's ties with alternative suppliers like Mexico and Russia, thereby further isolating its economy.
- Economic Crisis Intensifies: Following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Cuba has lost its primary source of subsidized oil, leading to a near-collapse of its economy and a drastic reduction in oil supplies, exacerbating the hardships faced by its citizens.
- Political Transition Expectations: Traders in the market are betting on a power transition in Cuba by the end of the year, with a 55% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be replaced, while the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Cuba stands at only 26%, indicating confidence in achieving regime change through non-military means.
- Cruise Market Potential: A reopening of Cuba could fundamentally alter the Caribbean tourism landscape, as demand for Cuba sailings was 20% higher than for Bahamas cruises between 2016 and 2019, and a democratic transition could present significant profit opportunities for U.S. cruise lines.
See More
Royal Caribbean Launches River Cruise Business with Expanded Fleet
- Strong Market Demand: Royal Caribbean is launching a river cruise business through its upscale Celebrity brand, and due to surging demand, the cruise line has doubled its expected fleet size from 10 to 20 ships, indicating a significant interest in high-end river cruising that could reshape the industry landscape.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With Royal Caribbean's entry, long-time river cruise leader Viking may face heightened competitive pressure, prompting a reassessment of its market strategy to maintain its market share in the evolving landscape.
- Investor Attention: Investors in Viking should closely monitor Royal Caribbean's expansion plans, particularly regarding their potential impact on the high-end market, which could influence Viking's stock performance and future growth expectations.
- Shifting Industry Dynamics: This move by Royal Caribbean not only reflects a rising consumer interest in river cruising but may also compel other cruise lines to reconsider their product offerings and market positioning to adapt to the new market demands.
See More
Amazon's Huge Capital Spending Leads to Futures Losses and Bitcoin Bounce
- Market Volatility: Futures markets pared losses after the stock market broke key levels, indicating investor concerns about future economic prospects, which could lead to short-term market instability.
- Amazon's Capital Spending: Amazon's stock fell due to significant capital expenditures, reflecting the company's aggressive strategy in expansion and infrastructure investment, which may impact its short-term profitability.
- Bitcoin Bounce: Despite overall market pressure, Bitcoin saw a slight bounce, indicating a demand for digital assets as a safe haven in uncertain market conditions, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Investor Sentiment: The market's strong reaction to Amazon's spending may lead investors to reassess the risk and return of tech stocks, influencing overall investment strategies.
See More
Stock Market Plummets Amid Amazon Earnings Miss
- Market Decline: The stock market experienced a significant sell-off on Thursday, with major indices declining broadly, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, which have dampened market confidence.
- Bitcoin Crash: Bitcoin prices fell sharply, driven by a bearish market sentiment as investors rushed to sell off crypto assets, likely due to concerns over increased regulation in the crypto market and a general rise in risk aversion.
- Amazon Earnings Miss: Amazon's stock price dropped following its earnings report, primarily due to concerns over its massive capital spending plans, which raised investor apprehensions about future profitability, highlighting the tension between expansion and earnings.
- Capital Expenditure Impact: While Amazon's capital expenditure plans aim to drive long-term growth, they may negatively affect cash flow and shareholder returns in the short term, leading to lowered market expectations for its future performance.
See More
Stock Market Plummets as Amazon Reports Disappointing Earnings
- Market Decline: The stock market experienced a significant sell-off on Thursday, with major indices declining broadly, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook, which may dampen market confidence and influence short-term investment decisions.
- Bitcoin Crash: Bitcoin prices fell sharply, contributing to a gloomy market sentiment, as investor confidence in cryptocurrencies wanes, potentially leading to further capital outflows from this asset class and affecting the stock performance of related companies.
- Amazon's Disappointing Earnings: Amazon's stock dropped following its earnings report, primarily due to concerns over its massive capital spending plans, which may prompt a reassessment of its long-term growth potential by the market.
- Impact of Capital Expenditure: While Amazon's capital expenditure plans aim to expand its business, they may exert pressure on cash flow in the short term, thereby affecting its stock performance and investor confidence.
See More
