Palo Alto Networks Shares Plummet After Earnings Report
- Stock Volatility: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) experienced a significant decline of up to 11.3% over the past week, with shares still down 9.9% as of 1:11 p.m. ET on Thursday, indicating strong market reaction to its earnings report and management guidance.
- Earnings Beat: While the company's fiscal 2026 second-quarter results exceeded Wall Street expectations, management's Q3 forecast fell short, prompting analysts to lower their price targets significantly.
- Analyst Target Adjustments: At least 11 Wall Street analysts have reduced their price targets, with BMO Capital's analyst cutting his target from $230 to $200 while maintaining an outperform rating, reflecting concerns over uncertainty in the broader software sector.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Despite growing fears that artificial intelligence may impact software providers' future prospects, analysts believe that the cybersecurity sector remains resilient, as enterprises continue to view cybersecurity as mission-critical, with expectations for double-digit organic growth ahead.
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- Earnings Report: Palo Alto Networks is set to release its second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday afternoon.
- AI Disruption: The company is also focusing on the impact of artificial intelligence on various industries, indicating a strategic shift in their approach.
- Earnings Expectations: Palo Alto Networks is set to release its Q2 earnings report after the market close on February 17, with analysts forecasting earnings of $0.94 per share, an increase from $0.81 per share in the same quarter last year, indicating ongoing improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth: The company is expected to report quarterly revenue of $2.58 billion, up 14.2% from $2.26 billion a year earlier, reflecting strong demand and an increase in market share within the cybersecurity sector.
- Acquisition Completion: On February 11, Palo Alto Networks announced the completion of its acquisition of CyberArk for $45 per share in cash plus 2.2005 shares of Palo Alto stock, which will enhance its product offerings and competitive positioning in the market.
- Stock Performance: Following the latest news, Palo Alto's stock rose by 2.6% to close at $166.95, indicating positive market sentiment regarding the company's growth potential moving forward.
- Stock Volatility: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) experienced a significant decline of up to 11.3% over the past week, with shares still down 9.9% as of 1:11 p.m. ET on Thursday, indicating strong market reaction to its earnings report and management guidance.
- Earnings Beat: While the company's fiscal 2026 second-quarter results exceeded Wall Street expectations, management's Q3 forecast fell short, prompting analysts to lower their price targets significantly.
- Analyst Target Adjustments: At least 11 Wall Street analysts have reduced their price targets, with BMO Capital's analyst cutting his target from $230 to $200 while maintaining an outperform rating, reflecting concerns over uncertainty in the broader software sector.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Despite growing fears that artificial intelligence may impact software providers' future prospects, analysts believe that the cybersecurity sector remains resilient, as enterprises continue to view cybersecurity as mission-critical, with expectations for double-digit organic growth ahead.
- Investor Concerns: Wedbush Securities analysts highlight that investor fears regarding AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic displacing enterprise software and cybersecurity providers stem from a 'fear of the unknown,' with capital expenditures nearing $700 billion this year yet lacking proof of tech monetization.
- Budget Cutting Risks: Analysts warn that IT budgets could potentially cut 70% by opting for cheaper AI tools, although this theory appears sound on paper, the complexity of modern enterprises renders such a goal nearly impossible to achieve in practice.
- Cybersecurity Industry Landscape: The U.S. cybersecurity sector boasts nearly 9,000 companies, thriving despite numerous mergers and acquisitions, with a projected 33% increase in information security analyst jobs from 2023 to 2033, indicating robust industry growth.
- Palo Alto's Market Positioning: Palo Alto Networks is strategically positioned at the forefront of cybersecurity, expected to monetize the AI cybersecurity total addressable market through its CyberArk deal over the next 12 to 18 months, even as investors remain skeptical about its long-term AI vision.
Earnings Guidance Update: Palo Alto Networks' recent earnings guidance has sparked interest among analysts, highlighting growth potential despite a trimmed outlook for 2026 earnings due to integration costs impacting margins.
Market Response: The stock has seen mixed reactions from analysts, with 42 rating it as a moderate buy, indicating confidence in its recovery potential, particularly as institutional investors are likely to capitalize on current price dips.
Strong Financial Performance: The company reported a solid quarter with a 15% revenue growth to $2.59 billion, outperforming expectations, driven by strong performance in next-gen security and recurring revenue streams.
Future Outlook: Despite some concerns over integration costs affecting profits, Palo Alto's balance sheet remains robust, with expectations for continued growth and potential share buybacks as market conditions improve.
- Muted Earnings Reaction: Although Palo Alto Networks (PANW) results and guidance did not please investors, Citi analyst Fatima Boolani emphasized that this is merely a 'short-term speed bump,' with the overall narrative remaining intact.
- Growth Deceleration: PANW's net new growth services annual recurring revenue (NNARR) has decelerated to 11% YoY, while subscription and support growth has slightly slipped to 13%, raising concerns about the company's future growth potential.
- Acquisition Impact: Despite reaffirming its organic growth targets for FY 2026 and transparently disclosing the impact of acquisitions on annual recurring revenue (ARR) and revenue backlog (RPO), the market perceives insufficient core business growth, leading to stock pressure.
- Rating and Price Target Adjustment: Boolani reiterated her 'Buy' rating on PANW but lowered her price target from $235 to $210 to reflect a reduced earnings multiple, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its long-term growth prospects.










