OTA Platforms Decline as TONGCHENGTRAVEL Falls by Approximately 2% in Tail Market; Reports Indicate China Urges Travel Agencies to Limit Tourist Numbers to Japan | Intellectia.AI
OTA Platforms Decline as TONGCHENGTRAVEL Falls by Approximately 2% in Tail Market; Reports Indicate China Urges Travel Agencies to Limit Tourist Numbers to Japan
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Travel Restrictions: Chinese authorities have reportedly instructed travel agencies to limit the number of tourists visiting Japan during the Christmas holiday, reducing visa applications to 60% of previous levels.
Market Impact: Following the news, travel OTA platforms like TONGCHENGTRAVEL and TRIP.COM experienced declines in their stock prices, with significant short selling activity noted.
Airline Performance: Despite the travel restrictions, three major Chinese airlines saw stock increases of 0.8-2.5%, while CATHAY PAC AIR faced a decline in its stock price.
Sino-Japanese Relations: Tensions between China and Japan have been exacerbated by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's previous comments on Taiwan, contributing to the travel restrictions.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00293 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00293 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00293 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00293 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 12.290
Low
Averages
High
Current: 12.290
Low
Averages
High
UBS
maintain
$14
Al Analysis
2025-12-23
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$14
Al Analysis
2025-12-23
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for CATHAY PAC AIR was influenced by the company's management's expectation that its 2025 consolidated financial performance will exceed that of 2024. UBS viewed this guidance as better than expected, leading them to believe that the company's earnings for FY2025 will be higher than anticipated. This positive outlook suggests that the company's dividend per share (DPS) may also surpass estimates, as the company typically distributes about half of its profit (excluding non-cash special items) as dividends. Consequently, UBS anticipates a favorable reaction in CATHAY PAC AIR's share price due to the profit guidance exceeding consensus, which led them to reaffirm the stock as a top pick in the APAC airline sector, assigning a target price of $14 and a rating of Buy.
CLSA
CLSA
Hold
maintain
2025-11-06
Reason
CLSA
CLSA
Price Target
2025-11-06
maintain
Hold
Reason
The analyst rating from CLSA for CATHAY PAC AIR is "Hold" due to the following reasons:
1. Net Negative Impact: The repurchase of shares from Qatar Airways at a 4% discount to the last closing price is viewed as a negative move because there is no indication that the repurchased shares will be canceled; they will be held as treasury shares instead.
2. Public Float Concerns: The repurchase will reduce CATHAY PAC AIR's public float to about 20.53%, which is below the minimum requirement of 25%. However, the waiver from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regarding this requirement alleviates concerns about potential equity financing in the future.
Overall, while the share buyback is at a discount, the implications for the company's public float and the lack of clarity on the future of the repurchased shares contribute to the "Hold" rating.
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JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Neutral
to
Overweight
upgrade
2025-10-03
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-10-03
upgrade
Neutral
to
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by several factors:
1. Market Underperformance: The Hong Kong and China aviation sectors have underperformed the market year-to-date due to cost pressures, intensified competition, and weak pricing power, which have negatively impacted profits.
2. Limited Impact of Regulatory Actions: The broker believes that the impact of anti-involution and related regulatory actions is limited, as these initiatives are currently not effective in materially improving pricing levels.
3. Flattish Price Forecast: JPMorgan maintains a forecast of flattish prices from 2025 to 2027, attributing this to ongoing demand dilution from High Speed Rail and a weak economy.
4. Optimism for Specific Stocks: The broker is most optimistic about SPRING AIRLINES and CHINA EAST AIR due to their positioning to benefit from a recovery in inland tourism, particularly following CHINA EAST AIR's divestment of its cargo business to focus on passenger transport.
5. Target Price Adjustments: JPMorgan upgraded CATHAY PAC AIR to Neutral based on its attractive valuation and dividend yield, while also upgrading CHINA EAST AIR's A-shares to Overweight and increasing its target price. SPRING AIRLINES was also rated Overweight with a target price increase.
Overall, the ratings reflect a cautious outlook on the aviation sector while identifying specific stocks that are better positioned for recovery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
