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News

3.5

01-13aastocks

CATHAY PAC AIR Embraces Peking University Research to Advance CN SAF Development

7.0

01-09aastocks

CX Anticipates Slower Growth This Year and Considers Cost-Cutting Strategies, Including Layoffs: Report

8.5

01-06aastocks

Ronald Lam Predicts Air China Will Remain a Long-term Strategic Investor in Cathay Pacific, Views Share Reduction as a Tactical Decision Only

4.5

01-06aastocks

CEO Ronald Lam: CATHAY PAC AIR to Invest Over $100 Billion to Improve Customer Experience and Acquire 100+ New-Generation Aircraft

8.0

01-06aastocks

CX: AIR CHINA Lowers Stake and Finishes Off-Market Share Buyback, Increasing Shareholding to 29.98%

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is -82.11M, with retail investors contributing -2.72M and major investors adding -65.92M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

UBS

maintain

$14

2025-12-23

Reason

The analyst rating for CATHAY PAC AIR was influenced by the company's management's expectation that its 2025 consolidated financial performance will exceed that of 2024. UBS viewed this guidance as better than expected, leading them to believe that the company's earnings for FY2025 will be higher than anticipated. This positive outlook suggests that the company's dividend per share (DPS) may also surpass estimates, as the company typically distributes about half of its profit (excluding non-cash special items) as dividends. Consequently, UBS anticipates a favorable reaction in CATHAY PAC AIR's share price due to the profit guidance exceeding consensus, which led them to reaffirm the stock as a top pick in the APAC airline sector, assigning a target price of $14 and a rating of Buy.

UBS

Price Target

$14

2025-12-23

maintain

The analyst rating for CATHAY PAC AIR was influenced by the company's management's expectation that its 2025 consolidated financial performance will exceed that of 2024. UBS viewed this guidance as better than expected, leading them to believe that the company's earnings for FY2025 will be higher than anticipated. This positive outlook suggests that the company's dividend per share (DPS) may also surpass estimates, as the company typically distributes about half of its profit (excluding non-cash special items) as dividends. Consequently, UBS anticipates a favorable reaction in CATHAY PAC AIR's share price due to the profit guidance exceeding consensus, which led them to reaffirm the stock as a top pick in the APAC airline sector, assigning a target price of $14 and a rating of Buy.

CLSA

Hold

maintain

2025-11-06

Reason

The analyst rating from CLSA for CATHAY PAC AIR is "Hold" due to the following reasons: 1. Net Negative Impact: The repurchase of shares from Qatar Airways at a 4% discount to the last closing price is viewed as a negative move because there is no indication that the repurchased shares will be canceled; they will be held as treasury shares instead. 2. Public Float Concerns: The repurchase will reduce CATHAY PAC AIR's public float to about 20.53%, which is below the minimum requirement of 25%. However, the waiver from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regarding this requirement alleviates concerns about potential equity financing in the future. Overall, while the share buyback is at a discount, the implications for the company's public float and the lack of clarity on the future of the repurchased shares contribute to the "Hold" rating.

CLSA

Hold

Price Target

2025-11-06

maintain

The analyst rating from CLSA for CATHAY PAC AIR is "Hold" due to the following reasons: 1. Net Negative Impact: The repurchase of shares from Qatar Airways at a 4% discount to the last closing price is viewed as a negative move because there is no indication that the repurchased shares will be canceled; they will be held as treasury shares instead. 2. Public Float Concerns: The repurchase will reduce CATHAY PAC AIR's public float to about 20.53%, which is below the minimum requirement of 25%. However, the waiver from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regarding this requirement alleviates concerns about potential equity financing in the future. Overall, while the share buyback is at a discount, the implications for the company's public float and the lack of clarity on the future of the repurchased shares contribute to the "Hold" rating.

JPMorgan

Neutral

to

Overweight

upgrade

2025-10-03

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by several factors: 1. Market Underperformance: The Hong Kong and China aviation sectors have underperformed the market year-to-date due to cost pressures, intensified competition, and weak pricing power, which have negatively impacted profits. 2. Limited Impact of Regulatory Actions: The broker believes that the impact of anti-involution and related regulatory actions is limited, as these initiatives are currently not effective in materially improving pricing levels. 3. Flattish Price Forecast: JPMorgan maintains a forecast of flattish prices from 2025 to 2027, attributing this to ongoing demand dilution from High Speed Rail and a weak economy. 4. Optimism for Specific Stocks: The broker is most optimistic about SPRING AIRLINES and CHINA EAST AIR due to their positioning to benefit from a recovery in inland tourism, particularly following CHINA EAST AIR's divestment of its cargo business to focus on passenger transport. 5. Target Price Adjustments: JPMorgan upgraded CATHAY PAC AIR to Neutral based on its attractive valuation and dividend yield, while also upgrading CHINA EAST AIR's A-shares to Overweight and increasing its target price. SPRING AIRLINES was also rated Overweight with a target price increase. Overall, the ratings reflect a cautious outlook on the aviation sector while identifying specific stocks that are better positioned for recovery.

JPMorgan

Neutral

to

Overweight

Price Target

2025-10-03

upgrade

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by several factors: 1. Market Underperformance: The Hong Kong and China aviation sectors have underperformed the market year-to-date due to cost pressures, intensified competition, and weak pricing power, which have negatively impacted profits. 2. Limited Impact of Regulatory Actions: The broker believes that the impact of anti-involution and related regulatory actions is limited, as these initiatives are currently not effective in materially improving pricing levels. 3. Flattish Price Forecast: JPMorgan maintains a forecast of flattish prices from 2025 to 2027, attributing this to ongoing demand dilution from High Speed Rail and a weak economy. 4. Optimism for Specific Stocks: The broker is most optimistic about SPRING AIRLINES and CHINA EAST AIR due to their positioning to benefit from a recovery in inland tourism, particularly following CHINA EAST AIR's divestment of its cargo business to focus on passenger transport. 5. Target Price Adjustments: JPMorgan upgraded CATHAY PAC AIR to Neutral based on its attractive valuation and dividend yield, while also upgrading CHINA EAST AIR's A-shares to Overweight and increasing its target price. SPRING AIRLINES was also rated Overweight with a target price increase. Overall, the ratings reflect a cautious outlook on the aviation sector while identifying specific stocks that are better positioned for recovery.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

N/A

5Y Average PE

1.78

Current PE

9.90

Overvalued PE

17.32

Undervalued PE

-13.76

Forward EV/EBITDA

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

7.34

Current EV/EBITDA

5.52

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

11.34

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

3.33

Forward PS

5Y Average PS

0.65

Current PS

0.76

Overvalued PS

0.81

Undervalued PS

0.49

Financials

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