Oil prices post a loss in February as U.S.-Ukraine tensions feed uncertainty

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

CVX+0.04%

Source: MarketWatch

Updated: Feb 28 2025

0mins

Source: MarketWatch

Oil Prices Decline: Oil futures fell significantly due to concerns over the global economic outlook and escalating trade tensions from U.S. tariffs, resulting in the largest monthly losses since September.
Impact of Diplomatic Tensions: A meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky diminished hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could have led to the lifting of sanctions on Russia's oil sector.

CVX

$166.72+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on CVX

Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVX is 176.95 USD with a low forecast of 158.00 USD and a high forecast of 206.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

19 Analyst Rating

15 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 166.660

Low

158.00

Averages

176.95

High

206.00

Current: 166.660

Low

158.00

Averages

176.95

High

206.00

Barclays

Betty Jiang

Equal Weight

maintain

$158 -> $166

2026-01-21

New

Reason

Barclays

Betty Jiang

Price Target

$158 -> $166

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

New

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Betty Jiang raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $166 from $158 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.

JPMorgan

NULL

Overweight

initiated

$176

2026-01-20

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$176

2026-01-20

New

initiated

NULL

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan resumed coverage of Chevron with an Overweight rating and $176 price target. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.

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Scotiabank

Sector Perform

maintain

$165 -> $168

2026-01-16

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$165 -> $168

2026-01-16

maintain

Sector Perform

Reason

Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $168 from $165 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.

Piper Sandler

Ryan Todd

Overweight

downgrade

$178 -> $174

2026-01-08

Reason

Piper Sandler

Ryan Todd

Price Target

$178 -> $174

2026-01-08

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd lowered the firm's price target on Chevron to $174 from $178 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that entering 2026, while the chairs have shuffled around a bit, the song remains similar to twelve months ago - a bearish crude outlook that is likely to make it difficult for the sector to outperform the broader market. On the flip side, Piper sees the refining market as even better than 2025, driven by what it expects to be incrementally tighter S/D and crude differential tailwinds.

About CVX

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.