Oatly Group Reports First Full Year of Profitable Growth in Q4 2025
- Transformational Profit Growth: Oatly achieved its first full year of profitable growth in 2025, with a 19% revenue increase and a $275 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA, marking a shift from structural losses to structural profitability, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4, revenue grew by 9.1%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $11 million, which is $17.1 million higher than the same quarter last year, and gross margin improved to 34.5%, up 580 basis points, reflecting successful cost management and market demand.
- Positive Future Outlook: Oatly expects revenue growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $25 million and $35 million, despite a 200 basis point headwind from a large North American customer, indicating management's confidence in future performance.
- Market Expansion Strategy: The company is focusing on beverage innovation and targeting younger consumers, planning to reposition its products to increase market share, while also seeking new growth opportunities through a strategic review of its Greater China segment.
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- Transformational Profit Growth: Oatly achieved its first full year of profitable growth in 2025, with a 19% revenue increase and a $275 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA, marking a shift from structural losses to structural profitability, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4, revenue grew by 9.1%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $11 million, which is $17.1 million higher than the same quarter last year, and gross margin improved to 34.5%, up 580 basis points, reflecting successful cost management and market demand.
- Positive Future Outlook: Oatly expects revenue growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $25 million and $35 million, despite a 200 basis point headwind from a large North American customer, indicating management's confidence in future performance.
- Market Expansion Strategy: The company is focusing on beverage innovation and targeting younger consumers, planning to reposition its products to increase market share, while also seeking new growth opportunities through a strategic review of its Greater China segment.
- Strong Earnings Report: Oatly's Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.61 beats expectations by $0.22, indicating a positive signal in the company's recovery of profitability, although it remains in a loss position.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $233.78 million, a 9.1% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $17.73 million, demonstrating significant progress amid recovering market demand.
- Future Outlook: Oatly expects revenue growth in 2026 to range from 3% to 5%, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $25 million and $35 million, and capital expenditures anticipated to be between $20 million and $30 million, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- Stock Price Reaction: Despite the strong earnings report, Oatly's stock fell 3% in after-hours trading, indicating market caution regarding the company's future profitability potential.
- Earnings Announcement Date: Oatly is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 11 before the market opens, drawing significant attention to its performance amid increasing competition in the plant-based beverage sector.
- Expected Financial Metrics: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.42, reflecting a staggering 180% year-over-year decline, while the revenue estimate is $216.05 million, indicating a modest 0.8% growth, highlighting substantial challenges in profitability.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, Oatly has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, suggesting a lack of confidence in the company's future performance from the market.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Given the current financial outlook and historical performance, investors may react cautiously to Oatly's earnings report, particularly as its stock price has already faced significant pressure.
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Consumer Advocacy on Social Media: Anna Fleming's TikTok video about Honda's failure to replace her broken-down car sparked a wave of support from viewers demanding accountability from the company.
Impact on Brand Reputation: The backlash included comments from potential customers expressing their disappointment and reconsidering their purchase decisions due to Honda's perceived negligence.
Analyst Recommendation: DA Davidson has maintained a Buy recommendation for Oatly Group AB (NasdaqGS:OTLY) as of November 21, 2025, with an average one-year price target of $21.08/share, indicating a potential upside of 79.10% from its current price of $11.77/share.
Projected Financials: Oatly Group AB is projected to achieve annual revenue of $1,326 million, reflecting a 57.30% increase, while the expected non-GAAP EPS is -0.31.
Institutional Ownership: There are currently 76 funds reporting positions in Oatly, with a 5.56% increase in ownership over the last quarter, and total shares owned by institutions rising by 6.76% to 3,311K shares.
Market Sentiment: The put/call ratio for OTLY is 0.29, suggesting a bullish outlook, with notable changes in shareholdings from firms like UBS Group and Susquehanna International Group, which increased their allocations in the last quarter.







