Nvidia's 2026 Outlook and Challenges

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

NVDA+1.1%

Source: Yahoo Finance

Updated: 4h ago

0mins

Source: Yahoo Finance

Lackluster Market Performance: Nvidia's stock has not performed as expected in 2026, remaining flat since the start of the year due to concerns about an AI spending bubble, geopolitical uncertainties affecting sales to China, and some profit-taking.
Optimistic Sales Forecast: Despite challenges, Nvidia expects fourth-quarter sales for fiscal 2026 to reach $65 billion, with potential to exceed this estimate, reflecting strong performance amid ongoing growth in data center and AI infrastructure spending.
Chinese Market Potential: Nvidia has received U.S. regulatory approval to sell its H200 chips in China, and CEO Jensen Huang is set to visit China soon, with expectations that he will announce the resumption of business operations there, potentially driving additional sales growth.
Diminished Investor Confidence: Although the stock has surged nearly 900% over the past three years, investor enthusiasm appears to be waning, leading to reduced confidence in future investments, especially as Nvidia was not included in the analyst-recommended best stocks list.

NVDA

$188.52+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on NVDA

Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVDA is 264.97 USD with a low forecast of 200.00 USD and a high forecast of 352.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

41 Analyst Rating

39 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 186.470

Low

200.00

Averages

264.97

High

352.00

Current: 186.470

Low

200.00

Averages

264.97

High

352.00

Goldman Sachs

James Schneider

Buy

maintain

$280 -> $320

2026-01-09

Reason

Goldman Sachs

James Schneider

Price Target

$280 -> $320

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider raised the firm's price target on SanDisk (SNDK) to $320 from $280 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Sentiment remains very positive, driven by eSSD qualification progress, strong pricing momentum, and Nvidia's (NVDA) recent memory controller announcement, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Mizuho

Vijay Rakesh

Outperform

maintain

$245 -> $275

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Vijay Rakesh

Price Target

$245 -> $275

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the firm's price target on Nvidia to $275 from $245 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment group as part of its 2026 outlook. Mizuho sees continued upside for the group in 2026 due to "attractive valuations," but more modest than 2025. The analyst' top sectors in 2026 are AI accelerators and wafter fab equipment, Optical, and memory, while the firm remains cautious on electric vehicles, autos and analog as well as computers and handsets. Mizuho's top picks for 2026 are Nvidia, Lumentum and Broadcom.

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BofA

Buy

maintain

$300 -> $390

2026-01-07

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$300 -> $390

2026-01-07

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on SanDisk (SNDK) to $390 from $300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang presented "Vera Rubin" and co-developed chips that will drive significant improvement in performance for AI workloads at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Part of the performance increase coming from the ability to handle larger context windows for AI models through a dedicated storage tier connected via a Bluefeld-4 chip elevates NAND to a more prominent tier in AI workloads and allows for significant performance improvements, the analyst tells investors. Separately, demand remains strong and pricing robust, which should drive significant positive estimate revisions for SanDisk, the analyst added.

BofA

Buy

maintain

$119

2026-01-06

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$119

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA reiterated a Buy rating and $119 price target on Uber (UBER) stock. The firm continues to see Nvidia's (NVDA) autonomous vehicle initiatives as "critical" for Uber as it helps accelerate the adoption of L4 technology. Uber has a better opportunity to both purchase and lease autonomous vehicles for its network and offer consumers opportunities to monetize their autonomous vehicle on Uber's network, BofA told investors in a research note. Uber's valuation is only two to three turns higher than last year's low of around 12.5 times 2026 free cash flow, according to the firm. BofA added that it sees potential for multiple to expand to over 20 times free cash flow.

About NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.