Novo Nordisk Warns of Sales Decline Amid Price Pressures
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVO?
Source: CNBC
- Sales Warning: Novo Nordisk released its earnings report early, projecting a decline in sales and profit growth this year primarily due to lower prices in the U.S. and the loss of exclusivity for its weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic in China, Brazil, and Canada, which may dampen market confidence.
- Stock Reaction: Following the warning, Novo Nordisk's share price tumbled significantly, reflecting investor concerns about future performance, which could impact the company's competitiveness and investor confidence in global markets.
- Market Impact: European stocks are expected to open flat to higher, with the FTSE and DAX slightly up, and the CAC 40 rising by 0.24%, indicating a cautiously optimistic market sentiment ahead of upcoming earnings reports, despite overall sentiment being affected by a short-lived sell-off in cryptocurrencies and precious metals.
- Earnings Focus: On Wednesday, several companies including Novo Nordisk, Banco Santander, and GSK are set to report earnings, with the market closely monitoring these reports for their implications on overall economic and industry trends, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
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Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVO is 54.67 USD with a low forecast of 42.00 USD and a high forecast of 70.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 47.640
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 47.640
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Competitor Withdraws Drug
- Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares jumped 8% on Monday following Hims & Hers' announcement to withdraw its copycat weight-loss pill, indicating increased market confidence in Novo Nordisk's products.
- Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk and the FDA had threatened legal action against Hims & Hers, prompting the withdrawal, which not only protects Novo Nordisk's market share but may also reshape competitive dynamics in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Hims & Hers stated on social media that after constructive conversations with industry stakeholders, they decided to stop offering the treatment, a move that could further solidify Novo Nordisk's leadership in the weight-loss drug market.
- Commitment to Safe Care: Hims & Hers emphasized its commitment to providing safe, affordable, and personalized care, and while the withdrawal may impact its trust among consumers, it reflects a strategic pivot in response to regulatory pressures.
See More
FDA Moves to Restrict GLP-1 Ingredients in Compounded Drugs
- FDA Regulatory Action: The U.S. FDA announced it would take 'decisive steps' to restrict unapproved GLP-1 ingredients, a move that could significantly impact companies like Hims & Hers, leading to stricter compliance requirements and potential market disruptions.
- Hims & Hers Stock Volatility: After announcing a copycat GLP-1 drug, Hims & Hers' stock surged but quickly fell due to a patent lawsuit from Novo Nordisk, resulting in a more than 58% decline over the past year, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Revenue Growth Amid Legal Risks: Despite Hims & Hers achieving a 74% year-over-year revenue growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by demand for alternative weight-loss treatments, the FDA's regulatory actions and Novo Nordisk's lawsuit could undermine its market position and affect future revenue sustainability.
- Intensifying Market Competition: With rising demand for GLP-1 drugs and increasing competition, Hims & Hers may face greater pricing pressures, and although it thrived in the telehealth market during the pandemic, the current legal and regulatory landscape prompts investors to adopt a cautious outlook on its prospects.
See More
Capital Group Identifies Attractive Dividend Stock Opportunities
- Dividend Stock Appeal: Christopher Buchbinder from Capital Group highlights the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly those rated investment grade with a long history of income payments, which has allowed the CGDV fund to outperform the S&P 500 in down markets.
- Tech Sector Allocation: As of January 31, 26.8% of CGDV's assets are allocated to information technology, particularly semiconductor companies, reflecting the team's confidence in a sustainable AI investment cycle, with expectations that AI will dramatically change lives over the next 5-10 years.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: Although energy comprises only 6.4% of CGDV's portfolio, Buchbinder sees an upcycle in the oil field services sector over the next few years, particularly with Halliburton's collaboration with VoltaGrid to manufacture power systems for AI data centers, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Healthcare Investment: CGDV's largest healthcare holding is Eli Lilly at 3.86%, with Buchbinder believing that the long-term trend of GLP-1 drugs will transform the healthcare landscape in the U.S., positioning Eli Lilly as the market leader while awaiting FDA approval for its oral GLP-1 drug.
See More
Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has achieved remarkable results with its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating nearly $12 billion in quarterly sales and projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a growth rate as high as 27%, showcasing strong market demand and profitability.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: Novo Nordisk is facing intense competition, projecting a decline in adjusted sales growth of 5% to 13% this year, reflecting its unfavorable market position, and is currently engaged in a patent lawsuit against Hims & Hers to protect its market share.
- Significant Valuation Discrepancy: Eli Lilly trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46, while Novo Nordisk stands at just 13, indicating a stark difference in investor sentiment, which may suggest over-optimism for Eli Lilly and potential undervaluation for Novo Nordisk.
- Investment Outlook Analysis: Despite current challenges, Novo Nordisk's rollout of its GLP-1 weight loss pill offers hope for future growth, and considering its more attractive valuation, it may represent a better long-term investment choice compared to Eli Lilly.
See More
Bank of America Lowers Hims & Hers Price Target
- Price Target Reduction: Bank of America has lowered its price target for Hims & Hers, primarily due to FDA uncertainty and slowing GLP-1 sales, indicating market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
- Revenue Risk Warning: Analysts have highlighted that increasing uncertainty around FDA approvals may pose downside risks to Hims & Hers' revenue and profits, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Uncertain Profit Outlook: Ahead of the upcoming earnings report, Bank of America expresses concerns over Hims & Hers' profit outlook, suggesting that the current market environment may lead to performance falling short of expectations.
- Market Reaction Anticipation: Given the price target reduction and warnings about profit risks, the market may react negatively to Hims & Hers' stock performance, prompting investors to carefully assess its future prospects.
See More
Novo Nordisk Expects Earnings Decline in 2026
- Earnings Guidance Decline: Novo Nordisk's 2025 earnings report revealed a grim outlook for 2026, with sales and earnings expected to decline between 5% and 13%, primarily due to lower GLP-1 drug prices in the U.S., indicating significant market pressures and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
- Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Despite these challenges, the company's new GLP-1 pill attracted 170,000 patients within just four weeks of launch, far exceeding management's expectations, highlighting the potential growth opportunities in the weight-loss drug market.
- Increased Market Acceptance: The preference for oral medications over injections among consumers suggests that Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill could tap into a larger market, and the pricing agreement with the U.S. government further boosts demand, creating a favorable environment for sales growth.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk's stock has lost two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2024, the early success of the pill indicates that future volume could offset the pricing pressures expected in 2026, with the CEO's comments reflecting a positive internal outlook for the company's future.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Surge After Competitor Withdraws Drug
- Stock Surge: Novo Nordisk shares jumped 8% on Monday following Hims & Hers' announcement to withdraw its copycat weight-loss pill, indicating increased market confidence in Novo Nordisk's products.
- Legal Threats: Novo Nordisk and the FDA had threatened legal action against Hims & Hers, prompting the withdrawal, which not only protects Novo Nordisk's market share but may also reshape competitive dynamics in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Hims & Hers stated on social media that after constructive conversations with industry stakeholders, they decided to stop offering the treatment, a move that could further solidify Novo Nordisk's leadership in the weight-loss drug market.
- Commitment to Safe Care: Hims & Hers emphasized its commitment to providing safe, affordable, and personalized care, and while the withdrawal may impact its trust among consumers, it reflects a strategic pivot in response to regulatory pressures.
See More
FDA Moves to Restrict GLP-1 Ingredients in Compounded Drugs
- FDA Regulatory Action: The U.S. FDA announced it would take 'decisive steps' to restrict unapproved GLP-1 ingredients, a move that could significantly impact companies like Hims & Hers, leading to stricter compliance requirements and potential market disruptions.
- Hims & Hers Stock Volatility: After announcing a copycat GLP-1 drug, Hims & Hers' stock surged but quickly fell due to a patent lawsuit from Novo Nordisk, resulting in a more than 58% decline over the past year, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Revenue Growth Amid Legal Risks: Despite Hims & Hers achieving a 74% year-over-year revenue growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by demand for alternative weight-loss treatments, the FDA's regulatory actions and Novo Nordisk's lawsuit could undermine its market position and affect future revenue sustainability.
- Intensifying Market Competition: With rising demand for GLP-1 drugs and increasing competition, Hims & Hers may face greater pricing pressures, and although it thrived in the telehealth market during the pandemic, the current legal and regulatory landscape prompts investors to adopt a cautious outlook on its prospects.
See More
Capital Group Identifies Attractive Dividend Stock Opportunities
- Dividend Stock Appeal: Christopher Buchbinder from Capital Group highlights the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly those rated investment grade with a long history of income payments, which has allowed the CGDV fund to outperform the S&P 500 in down markets.
- Tech Sector Allocation: As of January 31, 26.8% of CGDV's assets are allocated to information technology, particularly semiconductor companies, reflecting the team's confidence in a sustainable AI investment cycle, with expectations that AI will dramatically change lives over the next 5-10 years.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: Although energy comprises only 6.4% of CGDV's portfolio, Buchbinder sees an upcycle in the oil field services sector over the next few years, particularly with Halliburton's collaboration with VoltaGrid to manufacture power systems for AI data centers, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Healthcare Investment: CGDV's largest healthcare holding is Eli Lilly at 3.86%, with Buchbinder believing that the long-term trend of GLP-1 drugs will transform the healthcare landscape in the U.S., positioning Eli Lilly as the market leader while awaiting FDA approval for its oral GLP-1 drug.
See More
Competitive Analysis of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has achieved remarkable results with its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating nearly $12 billion in quarterly sales and projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, indicating a growth rate as high as 27%, showcasing strong market demand and profitability.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: Novo Nordisk is facing intense competition, projecting a decline in adjusted sales growth of 5% to 13% this year, reflecting its unfavorable market position, and is currently engaged in a patent lawsuit against Hims & Hers to protect its market share.
- Significant Valuation Discrepancy: Eli Lilly trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 46, while Novo Nordisk stands at just 13, indicating a stark difference in investor sentiment, which may suggest over-optimism for Eli Lilly and potential undervaluation for Novo Nordisk.
- Investment Outlook Analysis: Despite current challenges, Novo Nordisk's rollout of its GLP-1 weight loss pill offers hope for future growth, and considering its more attractive valuation, it may represent a better long-term investment choice compared to Eli Lilly.
See More
Bank of America Lowers Hims & Hers Price Target
- Price Target Reduction: Bank of America has lowered its price target for Hims & Hers, primarily due to FDA uncertainty and slowing GLP-1 sales, indicating market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
- Revenue Risk Warning: Analysts have highlighted that increasing uncertainty around FDA approvals may pose downside risks to Hims & Hers' revenue and profits, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Uncertain Profit Outlook: Ahead of the upcoming earnings report, Bank of America expresses concerns over Hims & Hers' profit outlook, suggesting that the current market environment may lead to performance falling short of expectations.
- Market Reaction Anticipation: Given the price target reduction and warnings about profit risks, the market may react negatively to Hims & Hers' stock performance, prompting investors to carefully assess its future prospects.
See More
