Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge 15% Amid Poor Earnings Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVO?
Source: Fool
- Sales Outlook Downgrade: Novo Nordisk projects a 5% to 13% decline in adjusted sales for 2023 due to pricing pressures and increased competition in the GLP-1 market, leading to a nearly 15% drop in stock price and shaken investor confidence.
- Stock Performance: Following the earnings report, Novo Nordisk's stock fell from $50.30 to $47.30, resulting in a market cap of $169 billion, reflecting market concerns about future growth, particularly with its newly approved weight loss drug facing stiff competition.
- Investment Opportunity Analysis: Despite the bleak outlook, if demand for the weight loss pill exceeds expectations, there could be upward revisions to guidance, and with the stock trading at just 14 times trailing earnings compared to the S&P 500's 26 times, it presents a potential value buy.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Novo Nordisk maintains a strong foundation in diabetes and obesity markets, and as the weight loss pill rollout progresses, it could still be a solid investment for the long haul, suggesting investors should remain calm and consider this a buying opportunity.
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Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVO is 54.67 USD with a low forecast of 42.00 USD and a high forecast of 70.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 50.300
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 50.300
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge 15% Amid Poor Earnings Guidance
- Sales Outlook Downgrade: Novo Nordisk projects a 5% to 13% decline in adjusted sales for 2023 due to pricing pressures and increased competition in the GLP-1 market, leading to a nearly 15% drop in stock price and shaken investor confidence.
- Stock Performance: Following the earnings report, Novo Nordisk's stock fell from $50.30 to $47.30, resulting in a market cap of $169 billion, reflecting market concerns about future growth, particularly with its newly approved weight loss drug facing stiff competition.
- Investment Opportunity Analysis: Despite the bleak outlook, if demand for the weight loss pill exceeds expectations, there could be upward revisions to guidance, and with the stock trading at just 14 times trailing earnings compared to the S&P 500's 26 times, it presents a potential value buy.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Novo Nordisk maintains a strong foundation in diabetes and obesity markets, and as the weight loss pill rollout progresses, it could still be a solid investment for the long haul, suggesting investors should remain calm and consider this a buying opportunity.
See More
Novo Nordisk Plans Oral Ozempic Launch in 2026
- Oral Drug Launch: Novo Nordisk plans to launch its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Ozempic in Q2 2026, following the successful rollout of Wegovy, which is expected to meet the growing demand for oral diabetes medications.
- FDA Approval of New Name: The FDA has approved Ozempic as the name for oral semaglutide doses of 1.5 mg, 4 mg, and 9 mg, further solidifying Novo Nordisk's leadership in diabetes treatment.
- Market Demand Response: A senior executive noted that Ozempic's recognition has led to increased patient inquiries about oral options, with Rybelsus having been available since 2019, demonstrating the company's responsiveness to market needs.
- Label Expansion Application: Novo Nordisk has submitted a supplemental drug application to the FDA seeking to expand Ozempic's dosage to 25 mg, with a decision expected by year-end, which will enhance the competitiveness of its product line.
See More
Diverging Market Outlooks for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk
- Sales Outlook Divergence: Eli Lilly forecasts 2026 sales between $80 billion and $83 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $77.62 billion, with a projected 25% growth, highlighting its strong position in the obesity and diabetes drug market.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: In contrast, Novo Nordisk warns of a 5% to 13% decline in sales and profits due to falling prices in the U.S. and patent expirations in China, Brazil, and Canada, indicating pressure on its market share.
- Drug Competitive Advantage: Lilly's tirzepatide is superior in effectiveness and tolerability compared to Novo's semaglutide, and Lilly is actively driving global uptake, which is expected to further solidify its market leadership.
- Medicare Coverage Expansion: Lilly anticipates that Medicare coverage starting in July will open access for 40 million new beneficiaries to obesity treatments, potentially significantly increasing prescription volumes and driving sales growth.
See More
Diverging 2026 Outlooks for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Intensifying Market Competition: Novo Nordisk anticipates a sales decline of 5% to 13% for 2026, while Eli Lilly forecasts a 25% increase in sales, reaching $80 billion to $83 billion, highlighting the intensifying competitive landscape in the obesity drug market.
- Differential Drug Efficacy: Lilly's tirzepatide is considered superior in effectiveness and tolerability compared to Novo's semaglutide, with clinical trial results indicating a preference among prescribers, which will further drive Lilly's market share growth.
- Expanded Medicare Coverage: Lilly expects government Medicare to cover obesity treatments for the first time by July 2023, potentially opening access to 40 million new beneficiaries, significantly expanding market potential and increasing prescription volumes.
- Patent Protection Advantage: While Novo faces challenges from expiring patents in some international markets, Lilly's tirzepatide is expected to be protected into the late 2030s in major markets, providing a safeguard for future sales growth.
See More
Eli Lilly's Q4 Results Exceed Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, significantly surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $17.96 billion, highlighting the strong performance of its GLP-1 drugs, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, each exceeding $1 billion in sales and indicating robust future growth potential.
- Improved Profitability: Earnings per share (EPS) rose 42% year-over-year to $7.54, exceeding analyst estimates of $6.67, as management enhanced adjusted operating margins by nearly 300 basis points, further solidifying the company's financial health.
- Market Share Expansion: Zepbound captured nearly 70% of new GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S., while Mounjaro secured 55%, reinforcing Eli Lilly's leadership position in the GLP-1 market and demonstrating the competitive advantages of its products.
- Future Growth Potential: Management forecasts full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, above the Street's consensus of $77.62 billion, with the upcoming oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron expected to launch in 2027, further expanding market opportunities.
See More
Novo Nordisk's Stock Plummets After Weak 2026 Outlook
- 2026 Sales Guidance Downgrade: Novo Nordisk expects a sales decline of 5% to 13% for 2026, excluding $4.2 billion from the reversal of 340B provisions, primarily impacted by the U.S. 'Most Favored Nations' agreement and patent expirations, indicating heightened competitive pressures.
- Weight Loss Drug Sales: Sales of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic increased marginally by 1% to 31.83 billion Danish kroner (approximately $5.03 billion), while Wegovy sales jumped 17% to 21.86 billion Danish kroner (around $3.46 billion), demonstrating some market demand despite competitive challenges.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Novo Nordisk significantly increased its advertising spend on Wegovy and Ozempic in 2025, surpassing Eli Lilly, reflecting fierce competition for market share in the obesity and diabetes sectors, especially as Lilly's Zepbound has outpaced Wegovy in new prescriptions this year.
- Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock has plunged approximately 42%, while Eli Lilly's stock has surged around 34%, highlighting differing market expectations for the two companies' future prospects and exacerbating investor concerns regarding Novo Nordisk.
See More
Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge 15% Amid Poor Earnings Guidance
- Sales Outlook Downgrade: Novo Nordisk projects a 5% to 13% decline in adjusted sales for 2023 due to pricing pressures and increased competition in the GLP-1 market, leading to a nearly 15% drop in stock price and shaken investor confidence.
- Stock Performance: Following the earnings report, Novo Nordisk's stock fell from $50.30 to $47.30, resulting in a market cap of $169 billion, reflecting market concerns about future growth, particularly with its newly approved weight loss drug facing stiff competition.
- Investment Opportunity Analysis: Despite the bleak outlook, if demand for the weight loss pill exceeds expectations, there could be upward revisions to guidance, and with the stock trading at just 14 times trailing earnings compared to the S&P 500's 26 times, it presents a potential value buy.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Novo Nordisk maintains a strong foundation in diabetes and obesity markets, and as the weight loss pill rollout progresses, it could still be a solid investment for the long haul, suggesting investors should remain calm and consider this a buying opportunity.
See More
Novo Nordisk Plans Oral Ozempic Launch in 2026
- Oral Drug Launch: Novo Nordisk plans to launch its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Ozempic in Q2 2026, following the successful rollout of Wegovy, which is expected to meet the growing demand for oral diabetes medications.
- FDA Approval of New Name: The FDA has approved Ozempic as the name for oral semaglutide doses of 1.5 mg, 4 mg, and 9 mg, further solidifying Novo Nordisk's leadership in diabetes treatment.
- Market Demand Response: A senior executive noted that Ozempic's recognition has led to increased patient inquiries about oral options, with Rybelsus having been available since 2019, demonstrating the company's responsiveness to market needs.
- Label Expansion Application: Novo Nordisk has submitted a supplemental drug application to the FDA seeking to expand Ozempic's dosage to 25 mg, with a decision expected by year-end, which will enhance the competitiveness of its product line.
See More
Diverging Market Outlooks for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk
- Sales Outlook Divergence: Eli Lilly forecasts 2026 sales between $80 billion and $83 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $77.62 billion, with a projected 25% growth, highlighting its strong position in the obesity and diabetes drug market.
- Novo Nordisk's Challenges: In contrast, Novo Nordisk warns of a 5% to 13% decline in sales and profits due to falling prices in the U.S. and patent expirations in China, Brazil, and Canada, indicating pressure on its market share.
- Drug Competitive Advantage: Lilly's tirzepatide is superior in effectiveness and tolerability compared to Novo's semaglutide, and Lilly is actively driving global uptake, which is expected to further solidify its market leadership.
- Medicare Coverage Expansion: Lilly anticipates that Medicare coverage starting in July will open access for 40 million new beneficiaries to obesity treatments, potentially significantly increasing prescription volumes and driving sales growth.
See More
Diverging 2026 Outlooks for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
- Intensifying Market Competition: Novo Nordisk anticipates a sales decline of 5% to 13% for 2026, while Eli Lilly forecasts a 25% increase in sales, reaching $80 billion to $83 billion, highlighting the intensifying competitive landscape in the obesity drug market.
- Differential Drug Efficacy: Lilly's tirzepatide is considered superior in effectiveness and tolerability compared to Novo's semaglutide, with clinical trial results indicating a preference among prescribers, which will further drive Lilly's market share growth.
- Expanded Medicare Coverage: Lilly expects government Medicare to cover obesity treatments for the first time by July 2023, potentially opening access to 40 million new beneficiaries, significantly expanding market potential and increasing prescription volumes.
- Patent Protection Advantage: While Novo faces challenges from expiring patents in some international markets, Lilly's tirzepatide is expected to be protected into the late 2030s in major markets, providing a safeguard for future sales growth.
See More
Eli Lilly's Q4 Results Exceed Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, significantly surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $17.96 billion, highlighting the strong performance of its GLP-1 drugs, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, each exceeding $1 billion in sales and indicating robust future growth potential.
- Improved Profitability: Earnings per share (EPS) rose 42% year-over-year to $7.54, exceeding analyst estimates of $6.67, as management enhanced adjusted operating margins by nearly 300 basis points, further solidifying the company's financial health.
- Market Share Expansion: Zepbound captured nearly 70% of new GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S., while Mounjaro secured 55%, reinforcing Eli Lilly's leadership position in the GLP-1 market and demonstrating the competitive advantages of its products.
- Future Growth Potential: Management forecasts full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, above the Street's consensus of $77.62 billion, with the upcoming oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron expected to launch in 2027, further expanding market opportunities.
See More
Novo Nordisk's Stock Plummets After Weak 2026 Outlook
- 2026 Sales Guidance Downgrade: Novo Nordisk expects a sales decline of 5% to 13% for 2026, excluding $4.2 billion from the reversal of 340B provisions, primarily impacted by the U.S. 'Most Favored Nations' agreement and patent expirations, indicating heightened competitive pressures.
- Weight Loss Drug Sales: Sales of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic increased marginally by 1% to 31.83 billion Danish kroner (approximately $5.03 billion), while Wegovy sales jumped 17% to 21.86 billion Danish kroner (around $3.46 billion), demonstrating some market demand despite competitive challenges.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Novo Nordisk significantly increased its advertising spend on Wegovy and Ozempic in 2025, surpassing Eli Lilly, reflecting fierce competition for market share in the obesity and diabetes sectors, especially as Lilly's Zepbound has outpaced Wegovy in new prescriptions this year.
- Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock has plunged approximately 42%, while Eli Lilly's stock has surged around 34%, highlighting differing market expectations for the two companies' future prospects and exacerbating investor concerns regarding Novo Nordisk.
See More
