New alumina supplies in 2025 poised to rupture record price rally

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

AA-1.62%

Source: Newsfilter

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Source: Newsfilter

Bauxite Supply Disruptions Impacting Prices: Disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea and Brazil, along with output suspensions in Australia, have led to a 70% surge in alumina prices this year, reaching record highs. However, new alumina production capacities in China, Indonesia, and India are expected to alleviate tight supplies in the near future.
Forecast for Alumina Prices: Analysts predict a shift towards oversupply in the alumina market by 2025, with forecasts of lower average prices due to increased production capacity and potential demand slowdown, despite current elevated prices driven by high profit margins for producers.

$62.12+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on AA

Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AA is 46.00 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 58.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Analyst Rating

6 Buy

2 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 63.140

Low

33.00

Averages

46.00

High

58.00

Current: 63.140

Low

33.00

Averages

46.00

High

58.00

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

downgrade

$71 -> $64

2026-01-23

New

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$71 -> $64

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

New

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Alcoa to $64 from $71 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Despite strong aluminum prices, higher-than-expected cash uses could continue to inhibit long-awaited shareholder returns, the firm says. Wells stays on the sidelines as value looks appropriate at spot prices. Land sales or a Canada carveout could be positive catalysts.

Cantor Fitzgerald

Neutral

Overweight

upgrade

$310 -> $370

2026-01-08

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

Price Target

$310 -> $370

2026-01-08

upgrade

Neutral

Overweight

Reason

Stock futures are under pressure as investors reassess early-2026 optimism. After major indexes hit record highs in recent sessions, profit-taking and risk aversion have taken hold, in part because traders are positioned for key economic data later this week, including the January jobs report.Broader sentiment reflects a shift from the upbeat positioning seen at the start of the year to a more measured and selective market, with investors digesting geopolitical developments, mixed earnings cues and fresh macro indicators.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.14%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.18% and Dow futures fell 0.38%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -Alphabetup 1% after Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $370, up from $310UP AFTER EARNINGS -Neogenup 31%Commercial Metalsup 2%TD Synnexup 1%Simply Good Foodsup 1%UP AFTER TRUMP REQUEST FOR INCREASED MILITARY BUDGET -AeroVironmentup 10%Northrop Grummanup 7%Lockheed Martinup 6%L3Harrisup 6%Huntington Ingallsup 6%General Dynamicsup 4%RTXup 3%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Helen of Troydown 5%RPMdown 5%Acuity Brandsdown 5%Lindsaydown 4%LOWER -Alcoadown 4% after JPMorgan downgraded shares to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $50, up from $45

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JPMorgan

Neutral -> Underweight

downgrade

$45 -> $50

2026-01-08

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$45 -> $50

2026-01-08

downgrade

Neutral -> Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan downgraded Alcoa to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $50, up from $45. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade. JPMorgan continues to favor copper over aluminum due to supply disruptions and a weaker dollar. While Alcoa continues to execute on driving efficiencies and cost downs, the stock's risk/reward is skewed negatively at current valuation levels amid forthcoming supply additions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

NULL

Overweight

upgrade

$40 -> $58

2025-12-23

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$40 -> $58

2025-12-23

upgrade

NULL

Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Alcoa to $58 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says supply constraints can support copper and aluminum prices, especially through Q3 2026. Wells also points out that steep power costs and copper switching especially boost aluminum.

About AA

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, which generally include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company’s aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company’s energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of 26 operating locations across nine countries on six continents.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.