Management Performance: CEO Michael Occi reported solid performance in Q3 2025, with net investment income of $0.50 per share and a 23% increase in new investment commitments, highlighting a strong origination engine and a focus on principal preservation.
Financial Results: The total investment income for the quarter was $99.7 million, with net investment income at $43.7 million. The company maintained a stable portfolio composition, with a low nonaccrual rate and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17x.
Dividend Outlook: The Board declared a consistent $0.50 per share distribution for Q4, with management emphasizing a commitment to generating attractive risk-adjusted returns and addressing potential NII pressure from future Fed rate cuts.
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts maintained a neutral-to-positive tone, focusing on dividend sustainability and portfolio quality, while management expressed confidence in their selective investment approach and ongoing balance sheet optimization.
Wall Street analysts forecast MSDL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSDL is 19.90 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 21.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MSDL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSDL is 19.90 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 21.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 16.550
Low
19.00
Averages
19.90
High
21.00
Current: 16.550
Low
19.00
Averages
19.90
High
21.00
RBC Capital
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$19 -> $18
2025-11-26
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$19 -> $18
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital downgraded Morgan Stanley Direct Lending to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $18, down from $19. The firm believes Morgan Stanley Direct could generate net interest income return on equity closer to the lower end of the range for its business development company coverage in 2026. As such, RBC sees better relative value elsewhere in the group.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$16
2025-11-10
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$16
2025-11-10
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending to $16.50 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q3 report.
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Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
downgrade
$20
2025-11-10
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$20
2025-11-10
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending to $18.50 from $20 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
UBS
Neutral
downgrade
$18
2025-10-14
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$18
2025-10-14
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending to $18 from $19.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
About MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is an investment company. The Company is a non-diversified, externally managed specialty finance company focused on lending to middle-market companies. The Company’s investment objective is to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns via current income and, to a lesser extent, capital appreciation by investing primarily in directly originated senior secured term loans issued by United States middle-market companies backed by private equity sponsors. The Company invests primarily in directly originated senior secured term loans including first lien senior secured term loans and second lien senior secured term loans. The Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries include DLF CA SPV LLC (CA SPV), DLF SPV LLC (DLF SPV), DLF Financing SPV LLC (Financing SPV) and DLF Equity Holdings LLC. The Company’s investment adviser is MS Capital Partners Adviser Inc.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
