MP Materials Leads Effort to Rebuild Domestic Rare-Earth Supply Chain
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6h ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Market Performance: As of January 29, 2026, MP Materials has gained nearly 11%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% increase, reflecting robust performance in the rare-earth market and investor confidence.
- Strategic Partnerships: The company secured a critical $400 million deal with the Department of Defense and a $500 million long-term agreement with Apple, underscoring its strategic importance in the rare-earth supply chain and future growth potential.
- Production Capacity Enhancement: While MP anticipates ramping up magnet production at its Fort Worth facility in 2026, it remains a newcomer in magnet production and has yet to eliminate dependence on Chinese producers, making future expansion crucial.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: With rising demand for high-performance magnets and national support, MP Materials is positioned for significant revenue growth in the future, making it a solid long-term investment choice.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 62.160
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 62.160
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MP Materials Stock Drops Amid Price Guarantee Concerns
- Government Investment Background: Six months ago, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials and signed a 10-year supply agreement, guaranteeing a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for rare earth metals, securing a fundamental revenue stream for the company.
- Rising Price Concerns: Recent reports indicate that the Trump administration may not extend minimum price guarantees to new investment projects, raising market fears about the potential loss of MP Materials' price guarantee, which has led to a 9.4% drop in stock price by 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Contract Guarantee Analysis: Despite increasing market concerns about the price guarantee, sources confirm that MP Materials' price guarantee is already embedded in the contract, suggesting that fears regarding its future earnings may be overstated.
- Profitability Challenges: Although the company has government backing, MP Materials reported losses in both 2024 and 2025, with an expected earnings per share of only $0.31 in 2026, resulting in a nearly 200 P/E ratio at a share price above $60, indicating high valuation risks.
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MP Materials Outperforms S&P 500 in 2026
- Strong Market Performance: As of January 29, 2026, MP Materials has gained nearly 11%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% increase, reflecting robust performance in the rare-earth market and investor confidence.
- Strategic Partnerships: In 2025, MP signed a critical $400 million deal with the Department of Defense and a $500 million long-term agreement with Apple to supply recycled magnets, providing strong confidence for the company's future growth.
- Enhanced Integration Capabilities: Controlling the Mountain Pass mine in California, MP is transitioning from a pure mining operation to a fully integrated rare-earth company, with its magnetics segment generating $21.9 million in revenue last quarter, a significant increase from virtually no revenue in 2024.
- Future Growth Potential: Although MP has not yet achieved large-scale production, it plans to ramp up magnet output at its Fort Worth facility in 2026 and expects to commission a second facility by 2028, indicating significant revenue growth potential aligned with national demand for high-performance magnets.
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