Mizuho Cuts UnitedHealth Price Target Amid Medicare Rate Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Should l Buy UNH?
Source: stocktwits
- Price Target Cut: Mizuho has lowered its price target for UnitedHealth from $430 to $350 while maintaining an 'Outperform' rating, indicating a delayed earnings recovery that may undermine investor confidence in the stock.
- Medicare Policy Impact: The stock faced pressure after CMS proposed a mere 0.09% increase in Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027, significantly below the expected 4%-6% rise, leading to a 2% drop in premarket trading and an additional 3% decline in after-hours trading.
- Rising Medical Costs: UnitedHealth forecasts FY26 adjusted EPS to exceed $17.75, slightly below the consensus of $17.76, and anticipates revenue below expectations, reflecting the adverse effects of rising medical costs and policy headwinds on its financial performance.
- Membership Reduction Outlook: The company plans to scale back Medicare Advantage membership in 2026, expecting a decline of 1.3 to 1.4 million members, which could further impact its market share and profitability in the competitive healthcare landscape.
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Analyst Views on UNH
Wall Street analysts forecast UNH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UNH is 397.82 USD with a low forecast of 330.00 USD and a high forecast of 444.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 268.550
Low
330.00
Averages
397.82
High
444.00
Current: 268.550
Low
330.00
Averages
397.82
High
444.00
About UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is a healthcare and well-being company. Its segments include Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx, and UnitedHealthcare, which includes UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement and UnitedHealthcare Community & State. Optum Health offers comprehensive and patient-centered care, addressing the physical, mental, social, and financial well-being. Optum Health delivers primary, specialty and surgical care; helps patients and providers navigate and address complex, chronic and behavioral health needs. Optum Insight connects the healthcare system with services, analytics and platforms that make clinical, administrative and financial processes simpler and more efficient for all participants in the healthcare system. Optum Rx offers a range of pharmacy care services through retail pharmacies, through home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacies and the provision of in-home and community-based infusion services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Drug Cost Reduction: Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, retirees will see significant reductions in prescription drug costs starting in 2026, with price negotiations for the first ten drugs taking effect on January 1, 2026, alleviating financial burdens and improving overall financial health for retirees.
- Rising Medicare Costs: The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, while the annual deductible will rise by $26 to $283, negatively impacting retirees' disposable income, especially as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments may not keep pace with these increases.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, meaning more retirees will encounter higher healthcare costs, further straining their financial resources.
- Medicare Advantage Market Turmoil: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, leading to reduced services and limited networks, with CEOs warning that future payment increases may have a “profoundly negative impact” on seniors' benefits and access to care.
See More
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- Lower Drug Costs: Starting in 2026, the CMS can negotiate prices for the first time under the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially lowering costs for retirees on 10 key prescription drugs, particularly those for diabetes and heart conditions, thereby alleviating some financial burdens on retirees.
- Rising Premiums and Deductibles: The standard Medicare Part B premium has increased from $185 to $202.90 in 2026, with the annual deductible rising by $26 to $283, leading 54% of Social Security recipients to feel that the 2.8% COLA is insufficient to offset these increases, which may heighten financial stress for retirees.
- Impact on High-Income Retirees: High-income retirees will face a 9% increase in the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) in 2026, with income thresholds rising by about 3%, further straining their healthcare budgets and reducing disposable income.
- Medicare Advantage Chaos: Major insurers like Humana and UnitedHealth have withdrawn Medicare Advantage offerings in hundreds of counties, reducing benefits for additional services; CEOs warn that the proposed 0.9% payment increase for 2027 could have a profoundly negative impact on seniors' benefits and access to care.
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- Earnings Expectation Shift: Analysts forecast CVS's non-GAAP earnings for Q4 2025 at $0.99 per share, a decline from $1.19 in Q4 2024; however, expectations for a potential earnings beat remain, which could lead to a stock rebound.
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