McDonald's Reports Strong Q4 Sales Growth Amid Analyst Divergence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy MCD?
Source: seekingalpha
- Sales Growth Trend: McDonald's (MCD) reported a significant increase in comparable sales for Q4, although analysts are divided on whether the company has fully recovered, indicating mixed market confidence in future growth.
- Strategic Shift: Morgan Stanley analysts noted that McDonald's is entering a new cycle focused on faster unit growth and potential remodel waves, a strategy aimed at enhancing food quality and taste to counter emerging competitors.
- Market Share Recovery: Oppenheimer analysts highlighted that McDonald's underlying sales indicators are improving, with market share among low-end consumers rebounding, suggesting multiple levers for sales growth through 2026.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Mizuho Securities lowered its 2026 EPS estimate for McDonald's to $13.14, reflecting concerns over future margin expectations, although the overall sales performance remains strong, the need for continuous reinvestment may cap EPS upside.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MCD?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCD is 337.63 USD with a low forecast of 300.00 USD and a high forecast of 375.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 323.210
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 323.210
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment is comprised of markets, or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment is comprised of developmental licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
McDonald's Stock Rises Approximately 2% Following Strong Q4 Results, Multiple Brokerages Increase Price Targets
- Stock Performance: McDonald's shares increased by about 2% following the release of their Q4 results.
- Earnings Report: The company's earnings exceeded expectations, leading to positive reactions from several brokerages.
See More
McDonald's Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Analysts Bullish
- Earnings Beat: McDonald's reported an adjusted EPS of $3.12 for Q4, exceeding the $3.05 expected by analysts, with revenues hitting $7 billion, surpassing forecasts of $6.84 billion, indicating robust financial performance.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: U.S. same-store sales rose by 6.8%, significantly improving from last year's -1.4%, primarily driven by promotions like the Grinch Meal and Monopoly, which attracted more customers and boosted sales.
- Analyst Optimism: Wall Street analysts are generally bullish on McDonald's, anticipating continued benefits from value-driven strategies, with Citi analysts noting that franchisee profit growth will lead to strong system alignment around new initiatives.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although shares rose less than 1% on Thursday morning, they have increased nearly 6% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential, with multiple firms raising their price targets, indicating strong market sentiment towards McDonald's.
See More
McDonald's Q4 Earnings Expectations Highlight Consumer Trends
- Earnings Per Share Forecast: Analysts expect McDonald's Q4 earnings per share to be $3.05, indicating the company's ability to maintain profitability despite challenges from reduced spending among low-income consumers.
- Revenue Expectations: McDonald's is projected to generate $6.84 billion in revenue for Q4, demonstrating its capacity for stable income growth amid high-income diners shifting from fast-casual options.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: Analysts predict a 3.9% increase in same-store sales, with a notable 5.4% rise in the U.S., highlighting the effectiveness of promotional activities and value menu offerings in attracting more customers.
- Stock Performance: Despite the sales rebound, McDonald's shares have only risen about 4% over the past year, primarily impacted by broader concerns about consumer confidence and the rise of GLP-1 drugs, reflecting market apprehensions regarding the fast-food sector.
See More
McDonald's Reports Strong Q4 Sales Growth Amid Analyst Divergence
- Sales Growth Trend: McDonald's (MCD) reported a significant increase in comparable sales for Q4, although analysts are divided on whether the company has fully recovered, indicating mixed market confidence in future growth.
- Strategic Shift: Morgan Stanley analysts noted that McDonald's is entering a new cycle focused on faster unit growth and potential remodel waves, a strategy aimed at enhancing food quality and taste to counter emerging competitors.
- Market Share Recovery: Oppenheimer analysts highlighted that McDonald's underlying sales indicators are improving, with market share among low-end consumers rebounding, suggesting multiple levers for sales growth through 2026.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Mizuho Securities lowered its 2026 EPS estimate for McDonald's to $13.14, reflecting concerns over future margin expectations, although the overall sales performance remains strong, the need for continuous reinvestment may cap EPS upside.
See More
Wendy's Q4 Earnings Estimates and Analyst Ratings
- Revenue Decline Expected: Analysts forecast Wendy's Q4 revenue at $540.79 million, down from $574.27 million year-over-year, indicating performance volatility as the company has missed revenue estimates in six of the last ten quarters despite beating in the last two.
- Earnings Per Share Drop: The expected earnings per share for Q4 is 15 cents, significantly lower than 25 cents a year ago, which may undermine investor confidence despite the company having exceeded analyst expectations in two consecutive quarters.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Ahead of the earnings report, analysts have lowered their price targets for Wendy's, with Citigroup maintaining a Neutral rating and reducing the target from $9 to $8, while Morgan Stanley and Mizuho also cut their targets, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Wendy's earnings release coincides with McDonald's reporting strong quarterly results, which exceeded revenue and EPS estimates, highlighting its competitive edge, thus Wendy's must leverage this earnings opportunity to emphasize its value proposition to attract new guests and retain loyalty.
See More
McDonald's Analysts Update Ratings and Price Targets
- Analyst Ratings Maintained: TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles maintains a Hold rating on McDonald's with a price target of $320, noting that higher interest rates and capital expenditures could negatively impact quarterly results.
- Strong Quarterly Performance: BTIG analyst Peter Saleh highlighted that McDonald's fourth quarter was its strongest in two years, driven by mid-single-digit global same-store sales growth and positive traffic trends in the U.S., alongside double-digit earnings growth.
- Future Outlook: Charles anticipates around 3% U.S. same-store sales growth for McDonald's in 2026, with stronger performance expected in the first half of the fiscal year, as management commits to providing predictable value amid a challenging low-income consumer backdrop.
- Stock Price Surge: McDonald's stock rose 2% to $329.66 on Thursday, hitting an all-time high of $333.38 earlier in the trading session, with an 8.7% increase year-to-date in 2026.
See More
McDonald's Stock Rises Approximately 2% Following Strong Q4 Results, Multiple Brokerages Increase Price Targets
- Stock Performance: McDonald's shares increased by about 2% following the release of their Q4 results.
- Earnings Report: The company's earnings exceeded expectations, leading to positive reactions from several brokerages.
See More
McDonald's Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Analysts Bullish
- Earnings Beat: McDonald's reported an adjusted EPS of $3.12 for Q4, exceeding the $3.05 expected by analysts, with revenues hitting $7 billion, surpassing forecasts of $6.84 billion, indicating robust financial performance.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: U.S. same-store sales rose by 6.8%, significantly improving from last year's -1.4%, primarily driven by promotions like the Grinch Meal and Monopoly, which attracted more customers and boosted sales.
- Analyst Optimism: Wall Street analysts are generally bullish on McDonald's, anticipating continued benefits from value-driven strategies, with Citi analysts noting that franchisee profit growth will lead to strong system alignment around new initiatives.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although shares rose less than 1% on Thursday morning, they have increased nearly 6% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential, with multiple firms raising their price targets, indicating strong market sentiment towards McDonald's.
See More
McDonald's Q4 Earnings Expectations Highlight Consumer Trends
- Earnings Per Share Forecast: Analysts expect McDonald's Q4 earnings per share to be $3.05, indicating the company's ability to maintain profitability despite challenges from reduced spending among low-income consumers.
- Revenue Expectations: McDonald's is projected to generate $6.84 billion in revenue for Q4, demonstrating its capacity for stable income growth amid high-income diners shifting from fast-casual options.
- Same-Store Sales Growth: Analysts predict a 3.9% increase in same-store sales, with a notable 5.4% rise in the U.S., highlighting the effectiveness of promotional activities and value menu offerings in attracting more customers.
- Stock Performance: Despite the sales rebound, McDonald's shares have only risen about 4% over the past year, primarily impacted by broader concerns about consumer confidence and the rise of GLP-1 drugs, reflecting market apprehensions regarding the fast-food sector.
See More
McDonald's Reports Strong Q4 Sales Growth Amid Analyst Divergence
- Sales Growth Trend: McDonald's (MCD) reported a significant increase in comparable sales for Q4, although analysts are divided on whether the company has fully recovered, indicating mixed market confidence in future growth.
- Strategic Shift: Morgan Stanley analysts noted that McDonald's is entering a new cycle focused on faster unit growth and potential remodel waves, a strategy aimed at enhancing food quality and taste to counter emerging competitors.
- Market Share Recovery: Oppenheimer analysts highlighted that McDonald's underlying sales indicators are improving, with market share among low-end consumers rebounding, suggesting multiple levers for sales growth through 2026.
- Earnings Forecast Adjustment: Mizuho Securities lowered its 2026 EPS estimate for McDonald's to $13.14, reflecting concerns over future margin expectations, although the overall sales performance remains strong, the need for continuous reinvestment may cap EPS upside.
See More
Wendy's Q4 Earnings Estimates and Analyst Ratings
- Revenue Decline Expected: Analysts forecast Wendy's Q4 revenue at $540.79 million, down from $574.27 million year-over-year, indicating performance volatility as the company has missed revenue estimates in six of the last ten quarters despite beating in the last two.
- Earnings Per Share Drop: The expected earnings per share for Q4 is 15 cents, significantly lower than 25 cents a year ago, which may undermine investor confidence despite the company having exceeded analyst expectations in two consecutive quarters.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Ahead of the earnings report, analysts have lowered their price targets for Wendy's, with Citigroup maintaining a Neutral rating and reducing the target from $9 to $8, while Morgan Stanley and Mizuho also cut their targets, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Wendy's earnings release coincides with McDonald's reporting strong quarterly results, which exceeded revenue and EPS estimates, highlighting its competitive edge, thus Wendy's must leverage this earnings opportunity to emphasize its value proposition to attract new guests and retain loyalty.
See More
McDonald's Analysts Update Ratings and Price Targets
- Analyst Ratings Maintained: TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles maintains a Hold rating on McDonald's with a price target of $320, noting that higher interest rates and capital expenditures could negatively impact quarterly results.
- Strong Quarterly Performance: BTIG analyst Peter Saleh highlighted that McDonald's fourth quarter was its strongest in two years, driven by mid-single-digit global same-store sales growth and positive traffic trends in the U.S., alongside double-digit earnings growth.
- Future Outlook: Charles anticipates around 3% U.S. same-store sales growth for McDonald's in 2026, with stronger performance expected in the first half of the fiscal year, as management commits to providing predictable value amid a challenging low-income consumer backdrop.
- Stock Price Surge: McDonald's stock rose 2% to $329.66 on Thursday, hitting an all-time high of $333.38 earlier in the trading session, with an 8.7% increase year-to-date in 2026.
See More
