Market Comparison: BigBear.ai vs. Palantir Technologies
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy PLTR?
Source: Fool
- Investor Interest Surge: BigBear.ai has gained attention from investors due to its reasonable valuations, with a 142% stock price increase over the past three years; however, it struggles to expand in the commercial market compared to Palantir, facing significant challenges.
- Strong Commercial Growth for Palantir: In Q3 2025, Palantir's commercial revenue surged 73% year-over-year to $548 million, contributing to an overall revenue increase of 63% to $1.18 billion, showcasing its robust performance among corporate clients.
- Customer Expansion and Contract Growth: Palantir added 742 commercial customers in Q3, signing 204 contracts worth over $1 million, indicating a significant increase in contract sizes and sustained demand for its AI platform.
- Financial Struggles for BigBear.ai: BigBear.ai's reliance on government contracts leads to a revenue forecast of $125 million to $140 million for 2025, down from $158 million in 2024, highlighting its lack of competitiveness in the commercial market.
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Analyst Views on PLTR
Wall Street analysts forecast PLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PLTR is 192.88 USD with a low forecast of 50.00 USD and a high forecast of 255.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
10 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 157.880
Low
50.00
Averages
192.88
High
255.00
Current: 157.880
Low
50.00
Averages
192.88
High
255.00
About PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc. is engaged in building software to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations. The Company has built four principal software platforms, including Palantir Gotham (Gotham), Palantir Foundry (Foundry), Palantir Apollo (Apollo), and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). Apollo is a cloud-agnostic, single control layer that coordinates ongoing delivery of new features, security updates, and platform configurations, helping to ensure the continuous operation of critical systems. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. Foundry transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. AIP enables responsible artificial intelligence (AI)-advantage across the enterprise by using primary, core components built to effectively activate large language models and other AI within any organization.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Palantir Reports 70% Revenue Growth Amid AI Adoption Gap
- U.S. Market Dominance: Palantir's fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.407 billion, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, with U.S. sales soaring 93% and accounting for 77% of total revenue, highlighting the strong growth and market leadership of the U.S. in AI technology.
- Global AI Gap: CEO Alex Karp emphasized that outside of the U.S., Europe and Canada are significantly lagging in AI adoption, reflecting a global divide in AI application, particularly with China and the U.S. leading in technological advancements.
- Increased Customer Commitment: Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor noted that clients are significantly increasing their commitments to AI, with some contracts quadrupling or quintupling by 2025, indicating a rapid acceleration in market confidence and demand for AI technologies.
- Risks of AI Adoption: Despite the rapid advancement of AI technologies, PwC's global chairman Mohamed Kande warned that many companies rushed into AI without foundational systems, resulting in over half seeing no tangible benefits, highlighting potential bubble risks in the market.
See More
Palantir Shares Plunge 11.72% Amid Valuation Concerns
- Significant Stock Drop: Palantir Technologies closed at $139.54 on Wednesday, down 11.62%, indicating that despite strong Q4 results, renewed investor concerns about valuation have pressured the stock price.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Trading volume reached 110.7 million shares, approximately 136% above the three-month average of 47 million shares, reflecting a notable increase in market attention towards the stock despite its decline.
- Strong Performance Support: The company reported a 70% revenue growth to $1.41 billion in Q4 and received upgrades to Buy from two analysts; however, market skepticism regarding its premium valuation compared to other AI software firms led to the stock's downturn.
- Contract Secures Revenue: Palantir secured a $1 billion contract with the UK Ministry of Defence, ensuring multi-year revenue visibility, yet investors are still assessing whether its commercial momentum and expanding margins can justify its high valuation.
See More
Palantir's Stock Reversal Post Earnings Report
- Slowing Customer Growth: Palantir reported a 34% year-over-year increase in customer count for Q4, a significant drop from 45% in the previous quarter, with sequential growth also declining from 7% to 5%, indicating a potential slowdown in customer acquisition that could impact future revenue growth.
- Decelerating Total Contract Value Growth: The total contract value (TCV) for Q4 reached $4.3 billion, up 138% year-over-year, but this was a slowdown from 151% in Q3, particularly concerning was the U.S. commercial TCV growth which plummeted from 342% to 67%, potentially affecting the company's revenue outlook.
- Significant Profitability Improvement: Despite the challenges of slowing customer growth, Palantir's net income surged from $77 million in the prior year to $612 million in Q4, showcasing strong profitability that may attract investor interest amid concerns.
- High Valuation Risks: With a current P/E ratio of approximately 222, Palantir's strong revenue and profit growth are overshadowed by its high valuation, making the market cautious about future growth expectations, where any slowdown could lead to increased stock price volatility.
See More
Software Stock Sell-Off Creates Opportunities for Selective Investors
- Market Pullback Analysis: Tyler Radke, co-head of U.S. software equity research at Citigroup, noted that the current broad sell-off in software stocks appears 'overdone,' creating opportunities for selective investors, particularly in the context of the AI trade.
- Stock Performance Volatility: For instance, Palantir's stock surged 7% after reporting a fourth-quarter earnings beat but subsequently fell 12% on Wednesday, illustrating the intense market volatility and investor panic.
- Selective Investment Strategy: Radke emphasized that investors should focus on companies likely to remain relevant in the future AI trade, particularly those exposed to hyperscale data volumes, recommending stocks like Microsoft, MongoDB, and Snowflake.
- Divergent Stock Performances: On Wednesday, Microsoft and ServiceNow each gained 1%, while MongoDB and Snowflake dropped 3% and 5%, respectively, reflecting varying market expectations and confidence in different software companies.
See More
Palantir Shares Decline Amid Broader Market Pressures
- Strong Earnings Report: Palantir reported revenue of $1.407 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase, with U.S. sales soaring 93%, comprising over three-quarters of total revenue, indicating robust performance in the U.S. market.
- Market Environment Impact: Despite the strong earnings, shares fell 11.22% to $140.11, primarily due to broader market declines, with the Nasdaq down 2.36% and the energy sector declining 1.80%, reflecting external pressures on tech stocks.
- CEO's Caution: CEO Alex Karp warned during the earnings call that uneven global adoption of AI could hinder growth outside the U.S., noting that while the U.S. and China are advancing quickly, many Western countries remain hesitant.
- Technical Indicators Show Weakness: Currently, Palantir's stock is trading 18.8% below its 20-day and 23.1% below its 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, with an RSI of 40.30 suggesting neutral market sentiment, while the MACD below its signal line indicates bearish pressure.
See More
Palantir Technologies Reports Significant Earnings Growth
- Accelerated Customer Expansion: Palantir's existing customers are increasing their deal sizes rapidly, exemplified by a utility company raising its annual contract value from $7 million to $31 million, indicating strong trust in the AIP platform and suggesting sustained revenue growth ahead.
- Large New Customer Contracts: New customers are also starting with significant deal sizes, such as a healthcare company that signed a $96 million contract after testing Palantir's services, demonstrating robust market demand for the company's offerings and further solidifying its market position.
- Consistent Revenue Growth: Palantir reported revenue of $609 million in the latest quarter, achieving double-digit growth for several consecutive quarters, reflecting strong demand for AI products and services, which enhances investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Strategic Implications: As customers continue to invest in and expand their use of the AIP platform, Palantir's growth narrative is far from over, providing not only a stable revenue stream for the company but also an optimistic outlook for long-term investors.
See More
Palantir Reports 70% Revenue Growth Amid AI Adoption Gap
- U.S. Market Dominance: Palantir's fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.407 billion, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, with U.S. sales soaring 93% and accounting for 77% of total revenue, highlighting the strong growth and market leadership of the U.S. in AI technology.
- Global AI Gap: CEO Alex Karp emphasized that outside of the U.S., Europe and Canada are significantly lagging in AI adoption, reflecting a global divide in AI application, particularly with China and the U.S. leading in technological advancements.
- Increased Customer Commitment: Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor noted that clients are significantly increasing their commitments to AI, with some contracts quadrupling or quintupling by 2025, indicating a rapid acceleration in market confidence and demand for AI technologies.
- Risks of AI Adoption: Despite the rapid advancement of AI technologies, PwC's global chairman Mohamed Kande warned that many companies rushed into AI without foundational systems, resulting in over half seeing no tangible benefits, highlighting potential bubble risks in the market.
See More
Palantir Shares Plunge 11.72% Amid Valuation Concerns
- Significant Stock Drop: Palantir Technologies closed at $139.54 on Wednesday, down 11.62%, indicating that despite strong Q4 results, renewed investor concerns about valuation have pressured the stock price.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Trading volume reached 110.7 million shares, approximately 136% above the three-month average of 47 million shares, reflecting a notable increase in market attention towards the stock despite its decline.
- Strong Performance Support: The company reported a 70% revenue growth to $1.41 billion in Q4 and received upgrades to Buy from two analysts; however, market skepticism regarding its premium valuation compared to other AI software firms led to the stock's downturn.
- Contract Secures Revenue: Palantir secured a $1 billion contract with the UK Ministry of Defence, ensuring multi-year revenue visibility, yet investors are still assessing whether its commercial momentum and expanding margins can justify its high valuation.
See More
Palantir's Stock Reversal Post Earnings Report
- Slowing Customer Growth: Palantir reported a 34% year-over-year increase in customer count for Q4, a significant drop from 45% in the previous quarter, with sequential growth also declining from 7% to 5%, indicating a potential slowdown in customer acquisition that could impact future revenue growth.
- Decelerating Total Contract Value Growth: The total contract value (TCV) for Q4 reached $4.3 billion, up 138% year-over-year, but this was a slowdown from 151% in Q3, particularly concerning was the U.S. commercial TCV growth which plummeted from 342% to 67%, potentially affecting the company's revenue outlook.
- Significant Profitability Improvement: Despite the challenges of slowing customer growth, Palantir's net income surged from $77 million in the prior year to $612 million in Q4, showcasing strong profitability that may attract investor interest amid concerns.
- High Valuation Risks: With a current P/E ratio of approximately 222, Palantir's strong revenue and profit growth are overshadowed by its high valuation, making the market cautious about future growth expectations, where any slowdown could lead to increased stock price volatility.
See More
Software Stock Sell-Off Creates Opportunities for Selective Investors
- Market Pullback Analysis: Tyler Radke, co-head of U.S. software equity research at Citigroup, noted that the current broad sell-off in software stocks appears 'overdone,' creating opportunities for selective investors, particularly in the context of the AI trade.
- Stock Performance Volatility: For instance, Palantir's stock surged 7% after reporting a fourth-quarter earnings beat but subsequently fell 12% on Wednesday, illustrating the intense market volatility and investor panic.
- Selective Investment Strategy: Radke emphasized that investors should focus on companies likely to remain relevant in the future AI trade, particularly those exposed to hyperscale data volumes, recommending stocks like Microsoft, MongoDB, and Snowflake.
- Divergent Stock Performances: On Wednesday, Microsoft and ServiceNow each gained 1%, while MongoDB and Snowflake dropped 3% and 5%, respectively, reflecting varying market expectations and confidence in different software companies.
See More
Palantir Shares Decline Amid Broader Market Pressures
- Strong Earnings Report: Palantir reported revenue of $1.407 billion, a 70% year-over-year increase, with U.S. sales soaring 93%, comprising over three-quarters of total revenue, indicating robust performance in the U.S. market.
- Market Environment Impact: Despite the strong earnings, shares fell 11.22% to $140.11, primarily due to broader market declines, with the Nasdaq down 2.36% and the energy sector declining 1.80%, reflecting external pressures on tech stocks.
- CEO's Caution: CEO Alex Karp warned during the earnings call that uneven global adoption of AI could hinder growth outside the U.S., noting that while the U.S. and China are advancing quickly, many Western countries remain hesitant.
- Technical Indicators Show Weakness: Currently, Palantir's stock is trading 18.8% below its 20-day and 23.1% below its 100-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend, with an RSI of 40.30 suggesting neutral market sentiment, while the MACD below its signal line indicates bearish pressure.
See More
Palantir Technologies Reports Significant Earnings Growth
- Accelerated Customer Expansion: Palantir's existing customers are increasing their deal sizes rapidly, exemplified by a utility company raising its annual contract value from $7 million to $31 million, indicating strong trust in the AIP platform and suggesting sustained revenue growth ahead.
- Large New Customer Contracts: New customers are also starting with significant deal sizes, such as a healthcare company that signed a $96 million contract after testing Palantir's services, demonstrating robust market demand for the company's offerings and further solidifying its market position.
- Consistent Revenue Growth: Palantir reported revenue of $609 million in the latest quarter, achieving double-digit growth for several consecutive quarters, reflecting strong demand for AI products and services, which enhances investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Strategic Implications: As customers continue to invest in and expand their use of the AIP platform, Palantir's growth narrative is far from over, providing not only a stable revenue stream for the company but also an optimistic outlook for long-term investors.
See More
