Morgan Stanley's Revenue Forecast: Morgan Stanley estimates Baidu (BIDU-SW) will report a core revenue of RMB26.1 billion for 4Q25, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year decline, with online ads revenue decline expected to narrow from 19% to 16%.
Rating and Target Price Update: The brokerage maintains an Equalweight rating for Baidu in the US market, raising the target price from USD130 to USD150.
Operational Performance Expectations: Baidu's non-GAAP operating profit for the last quarter is projected to be RMB2.8 billion, a 40.5% decrease year-over-year, but with expectations for quarter-over-quarter improvement.
Future Growth Catalysts: Key focus areas for Baidu include potential shareholder returns, advancements in its Kunlunxin and Apollo Go projects, and plans for a dual primary listing expected to be completed in the second half of 2026.
Wall Street analysts forecast 09888 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 09888 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 09888 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 09888 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 160.000
Low
Averages
High
Current: 160.000
Low
Averages
High
Citi
Buy
maintain
$186
2026-01-23
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$186
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for BIDU-SW (Baidu) has been maintained as "Buy" by Citi due to the company's demonstration of its advanced full-stack technology capabilities, particularly in AI infrastructure. The launch of Ernie 5.0, which features 2.4 trillion parameters and utilizes native full-modal unified modeling technology, is expected to enhance the integration and optimization of multimodal data. This strong technological foundation, along with the company's developments in chips, cloud, models, and intelligent agents, supports Citi's positive outlook and target price of USD 186 for the stock.
Jefferies
Jefferies
maintain
HKD176
2026-01-22
New
Reason
Jefferies
Jefferies
Price Target
HKD176
2026-01-22
New
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating of "Buy" for BIDU-SW (09888.HK) is based on the strong performance of the newly released ERNIE 5.0, which excels in omni-modal understanding, creative writing, and instruction following. The report highlights the advanced features of ERNIE 5.0, including its mixed expert architecture and improved pre-training cycle speed, as well as the comprehensive capabilities of the Qianfan agent platform that addresses various challenges in agent systems. Additionally, Baidu's extensive service suite and the significant usage of its agent systems further support the positive outlook, leading to a target price of HKD176.
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BofA Securities
BofA Securities
maintain
$176 / $180
2026-01-21
New
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$176 / $180
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Reason
BofA Securities issued a "Buy" rating for BIDU-SW (09888.HK) based on several key factors. They believe that the company's 4Q25 results will align with expectations, with a recovery in core business anticipated from the previous quarter. The forecast includes a 7% quarter-over-quarter growth in core revenue and a 17% increase in adjusted operating profit. Additionally, while revenue growth for BIDU-SW's AI cloud infrastructure is expected to slow due to a high base, the overall full-year growth is projected to remain strong, with over 30% year-over-year growth. The firm also highlighted BIDU-SW's strong performance in China's AI sector and identified potential catalysts and risks, such as the listing of Kunlunxin and shareholder return plans. Consequently, they maintained their target prices for BIDU-SW's H-shares and US stock, reinforcing their positive outlook.
UBS
UBS
maintain
$180
2026-01-21
New
Reason
UBS
UBS
Price Target
$180
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for Baidu (BIDU.US) is maintained as a Buy by UBS due to several key factors. The report indicates that Baidu is projected to meet expectations for its 4Q25 results, with a narrowing year-over-year decline in core ads revenue. Although growth in the cloud business may slow, AI cloud infrastructure is expected to remain a significant growth driver. Additionally, the forecast suggests that Baidu's core total revenue will improve, with a decrease of only 6.2% year-over-year. The potential upside from Kunlunxin's advantages in the domestic AI chip market has not been fully reflected in the stock price, further supporting the Buy rating. The target price set by UBS is USD180.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
