Lyft's Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Plunge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy LYFT?
Source: stocktwits
- Earnings Report Disappointment: Lyft's Q4 adjusted core profit rose 37% year-over-year to $154.1 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $147.72 million; however, revenue of $1.6 billion fell short of Wall Street's $1.76 billion forecast, indicating challenges in a competitive market.
- Analyst Downgrades: BofA cut Lyft's price target from $19 to $17 while maintaining an ‘Underperform’ rating, citing a Q4 rides miss and a lowered Q1 EBITDA outlook, which underscores an increasingly competitive environment.
- Severe Market Reaction: Lyft's shares plummeted 16% following the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future growth prospects, particularly under pressure from competitors like Uber, which is growing faster in the rideshare market.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Lyft anticipates gross bookings to increase by 17% to 20% year-over-year in the current quarter, analysts remain skeptical about its long-term targets, suggesting significant challenges in achieving sustainable growth.
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Analyst Views on LYFT
Wall Street analysts forecast LYFT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LYFT is 24.06 USD with a low forecast of 16.00 USD and a high forecast of 32.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
29 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
20 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 16.850
Low
16.00
Averages
24.06
High
32.00
Current: 16.850
Low
16.00
Averages
24.06
High
32.00
About LYFT
Lyft, Inc. is a global mobility platform offering rideshare, taxis, private hire vehicles, car sharing, bikes, and scooters across North America and Europe. It operates across 11 countries and in nearly 1,000 cities, and Lyft Urban Solutions supports bike sharing in 16 countries and more than 86 cities. Its Lyft mobile application (the Lyft App) connects riders with drivers for on-demand ride services and supports a variety of other multimodal mobility solutions. Its offerings on the Lyft App include an expanded set of transportation modes in select cities, such as access to a network of shared bikes and scooters (Light Vehicles) for shorter rides and first-mile and last-mile legs of multimodal trips. FREENOW by Lyft is the European taxi app featuring broad multi-mobility options. Through FREENOW, passengers can access various mobility services within a single app, including taxis, private hire vehicles, car sharing, car rental, e-scooters, e-bikes, e-mopeds, and public transport.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Lyft Achieves Record Profitability in Q4 2025
- Record Financial Performance: Lyft achieved its most profitable quarter in Q4 2025, generating over $1.1 billion in cash flow, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to operational excellence and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Booking and Active Rider Growth: Lyft's gross bookings rose 19% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, with active riders increasing by 18%, contributing to a 3% revenue growth to $1.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates and indicating strong market performance.
- Significant Profitability Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA surged 37% to $154.1 million, representing 3% of gross bookings compared to 2.6% a year ago, showcasing the company's enhanced profitability and operational efficiency.
- Future Growth Outlook: Lyft anticipates achieving $25 billion in gross bookings and over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2027, driven by business travel, partnerships, and autonomous vehicle deployments, indicating strong growth potential in the coming years.
See More
Lyft Stock Plummets Due to Disappointing Earnings Report
- Weak Performance: Lyft reported a 18.6% year-over-year growth in fourth-quarter bookings, reaching $5.1 billion, yet this figure fell short of expectations, indicating pressure in a competitive market.
- Revenue Miss: The company generated $1.6 billion in revenue, reflecting only a 2.7% year-over-year increase, which was approximately 9% below estimates, primarily due to a one-time legal, tax, and regulatory charge, highlighting its fragile profitability.
- Analysts Cut Price Targets: Following the earnings report, Wedbush lowered Lyft's price target from $16 to $13 and reiterated an Underperform rating, citing concerns over ride growth and the company's long-term ability to meet targets, potentially leading to market share loss.
- Soft Guidance: Lyft's outlook for Q1 indicates gross bookings growth between 16.8% and 20.1%, aligning with expectations, but the adjusted EBITDA forecast of $120 to $140 million falls below the Street's $140 million midpoint, exacerbating investor concerns.
See More
Lyft CEO Questions Disconnect Between Investor Expectations and Corporate Performance
- Performance vs. Expectations: Lyft CEO David Risher expressed confusion over the disconnect between corporate performance and investor expectations during a CNBC interview, as the company reported record bookings of $5.1 billion and net income of $2.8 billion, yet its stock continues to decline, indicating market sensitivity to short-term guidance.
- Financial Milestones: Despite reporting over $1.1 billion in free cash flow for 2025, Risher's frustration highlights the tension between a CEO focused on long-term structural transformation and a market reacting to short-term misses, emphasizing the challenges Lyft faces in aligning investor sentiment with its growth strategy.
- Autonomous Vehicle Strategy: Risher framed Lyft as more than just a ride-hailing app, positioning it as a sophisticated fleet management player with plans to launch robotaxis in Nashville by 2026, showcasing the company's ambition in the autonomous vehicle sector.
- Partnerships: Lyft is establishing partnerships with companies like Waymo and Baidu, intending to leverage its Flexdrive subsidiary for maintenance and charging of AV partners, thereby solidifying its critical role in the evolving transportation landscape.
See More
Lyft's Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Plunge
- Earnings Report Disappointment: Lyft's Q4 adjusted core profit rose 37% year-over-year to $154.1 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $147.72 million; however, revenue of $1.6 billion fell short of Wall Street's $1.76 billion forecast, indicating challenges in a competitive market.
- Analyst Downgrades: BofA cut Lyft's price target from $19 to $17 while maintaining an ‘Underperform’ rating, citing a Q4 rides miss and a lowered Q1 EBITDA outlook, which underscores an increasingly competitive environment.
- Severe Market Reaction: Lyft's shares plummeted 16% following the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future growth prospects, particularly under pressure from competitors like Uber, which is growing faster in the rideshare market.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Lyft anticipates gross bookings to increase by 17% to 20% year-over-year in the current quarter, analysts remain skeptical about its long-term targets, suggesting significant challenges in achieving sustainable growth.
See More
US Stocks Mixed as Software Sector Declines
- Strong Employment Data: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, exceeding expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.3%, indicating labor market stability that could influence Fed policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: Following the stronger-than-expected jobs report, the 10-year T-note yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.17%, with market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month dropping from 23% to 8%, reflecting investor caution regarding future monetary policy.
- Corporate Earnings Performance: So far, 78% of the 319 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings that beat expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience that may support the stock market.
- Market Volatility Overview: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.19%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.10%, indicating a mixed market performance amid declines in software stocks.
See More
Stock Price Movements of Various Companies
- Acadia Healthcare Stock Surge: Acadia Healthcare's stock rose 10% after investor David Einhorn announced his purchases, reflecting market optimism about the new management's ability to enhance performance, which could improve future profitability.
- Vertiv's Upbeat Guidance: Vertiv's stock jumped nearly 20% due to its optimistic guidance for 2026, with orders accelerating significantly in Q4, surpassing Wall Street expectations and indicating strong demand in the data center market.
- Unity Software's Downgrade: Unity Software's shares fell nearly 30% after issuing a first-quarter revenue outlook between $480 million and $490 million, below analysts' expectations of $492.1 million, raising concerns about its future growth prospects.
- Smurfit WestRock Order Improvement: Smurfit WestRock's stock soared over 10% after revealing improved product orders in late December, with expectations of reaching $7 billion in profits by 2030, highlighting its long-term growth potential.
See More
Lyft Achieves Record Profitability in Q4 2025
- Record Financial Performance: Lyft achieved its most profitable quarter in Q4 2025, generating over $1.1 billion in cash flow, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to operational excellence and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Booking and Active Rider Growth: Lyft's gross bookings rose 19% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, with active riders increasing by 18%, contributing to a 3% revenue growth to $1.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates and indicating strong market performance.
- Significant Profitability Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA surged 37% to $154.1 million, representing 3% of gross bookings compared to 2.6% a year ago, showcasing the company's enhanced profitability and operational efficiency.
- Future Growth Outlook: Lyft anticipates achieving $25 billion in gross bookings and over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2027, driven by business travel, partnerships, and autonomous vehicle deployments, indicating strong growth potential in the coming years.
See More
Lyft Stock Plummets Due to Disappointing Earnings Report
- Weak Performance: Lyft reported a 18.6% year-over-year growth in fourth-quarter bookings, reaching $5.1 billion, yet this figure fell short of expectations, indicating pressure in a competitive market.
- Revenue Miss: The company generated $1.6 billion in revenue, reflecting only a 2.7% year-over-year increase, which was approximately 9% below estimates, primarily due to a one-time legal, tax, and regulatory charge, highlighting its fragile profitability.
- Analysts Cut Price Targets: Following the earnings report, Wedbush lowered Lyft's price target from $16 to $13 and reiterated an Underperform rating, citing concerns over ride growth and the company's long-term ability to meet targets, potentially leading to market share loss.
- Soft Guidance: Lyft's outlook for Q1 indicates gross bookings growth between 16.8% and 20.1%, aligning with expectations, but the adjusted EBITDA forecast of $120 to $140 million falls below the Street's $140 million midpoint, exacerbating investor concerns.
See More
Lyft CEO Questions Disconnect Between Investor Expectations and Corporate Performance
- Performance vs. Expectations: Lyft CEO David Risher expressed confusion over the disconnect between corporate performance and investor expectations during a CNBC interview, as the company reported record bookings of $5.1 billion and net income of $2.8 billion, yet its stock continues to decline, indicating market sensitivity to short-term guidance.
- Financial Milestones: Despite reporting over $1.1 billion in free cash flow for 2025, Risher's frustration highlights the tension between a CEO focused on long-term structural transformation and a market reacting to short-term misses, emphasizing the challenges Lyft faces in aligning investor sentiment with its growth strategy.
- Autonomous Vehicle Strategy: Risher framed Lyft as more than just a ride-hailing app, positioning it as a sophisticated fleet management player with plans to launch robotaxis in Nashville by 2026, showcasing the company's ambition in the autonomous vehicle sector.
- Partnerships: Lyft is establishing partnerships with companies like Waymo and Baidu, intending to leverage its Flexdrive subsidiary for maintenance and charging of AV partners, thereby solidifying its critical role in the evolving transportation landscape.
See More
Lyft's Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Plunge
- Earnings Report Disappointment: Lyft's Q4 adjusted core profit rose 37% year-over-year to $154.1 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $147.72 million; however, revenue of $1.6 billion fell short of Wall Street's $1.76 billion forecast, indicating challenges in a competitive market.
- Analyst Downgrades: BofA cut Lyft's price target from $19 to $17 while maintaining an ‘Underperform’ rating, citing a Q4 rides miss and a lowered Q1 EBITDA outlook, which underscores an increasingly competitive environment.
- Severe Market Reaction: Lyft's shares plummeted 16% following the earnings report, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future growth prospects, particularly under pressure from competitors like Uber, which is growing faster in the rideshare market.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Lyft anticipates gross bookings to increase by 17% to 20% year-over-year in the current quarter, analysts remain skeptical about its long-term targets, suggesting significant challenges in achieving sustainable growth.
See More
US Stocks Mixed as Software Sector Declines
- Strong Employment Data: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, exceeding expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.3%, indicating labor market stability that could influence Fed policy decisions.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: Following the stronger-than-expected jobs report, the 10-year T-note yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.17%, with market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month dropping from 23% to 8%, reflecting investor caution regarding future monetary policy.
- Corporate Earnings Performance: So far, 78% of the 319 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings that beat expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, demonstrating corporate resilience that may support the stock market.
- Market Volatility Overview: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.19%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.10%, indicating a mixed market performance amid declines in software stocks.
See More
Stock Price Movements of Various Companies
- Acadia Healthcare Stock Surge: Acadia Healthcare's stock rose 10% after investor David Einhorn announced his purchases, reflecting market optimism about the new management's ability to enhance performance, which could improve future profitability.
- Vertiv's Upbeat Guidance: Vertiv's stock jumped nearly 20% due to its optimistic guidance for 2026, with orders accelerating significantly in Q4, surpassing Wall Street expectations and indicating strong demand in the data center market.
- Unity Software's Downgrade: Unity Software's shares fell nearly 30% after issuing a first-quarter revenue outlook between $480 million and $490 million, below analysts' expectations of $492.1 million, raising concerns about its future growth prospects.
- Smurfit WestRock Order Improvement: Smurfit WestRock's stock soared over 10% after revealing improved product orders in late December, with expectations of reaching $7 billion in profits by 2030, highlighting its long-term growth potential.
See More
