Kerrisdale Capital's Position on Aurora: Investment firm Kerrisdale Capital has taken a short position on Aurora Innovation Inc., claiming the autonomous trucking company will not become a viable commercial operation due to a fundamentally flawed business model.
Limitations of Aurora's Technology: The report argues that Aurora's technology is restricted to a "hub-and-spoke" system, requiring manned trucks for the first and last legs of shipping, making it less efficient compared to direct manned trucking.
Critique of Market Projections: Kerrisdale criticizes Aurora's claimed Total Addressable Market (TAM) of 200 billion miles as unrealistic, suggesting the actual competitive market is only about $10 billion, which is less than Aurora's current market capitalization.
Concerns Over Hidden Costs: The report highlights significant hidden costs associated with Aurora's autonomous trucks and the lack of investment in necessary infrastructure, warning investors of potential dilution and a bleak future for the company.
AUR
$4.12+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on AUR
Wall Street analysts forecast AUR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUR is 11.50 USD with a low forecast of 5.50 USD and a high forecast of 15.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AUR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUR is 11.50 USD with a low forecast of 5.50 USD and a high forecast of 15.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.180
Low
5.50
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
Current: 4.180
Low
5.50
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
downgrade
$6 -> $4
2025-11-26
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$6 -> $4
2025-11-26
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Aurora Innovation to $4 from $6 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
TD Cowen
Itay Michaeli
Hold
downgrade
2025-10-30
Reason
TD Cowen
Itay Michaeli
Price Target
2025-10-30
downgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli lowered the firm's price target on Aurora Innovation to $5.50 from $7.40 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm views Q3 as mixed but solidly intact. They are encouraged by the company's underlying progress but are adjusting its model to reflect a more measured 2026-27 revenue ramp to reflect timing risks in validating/launching the 2nd gen HW fleet.
Chardan
Jim McIlree
Buy
initiated
$22
2025-10-30
Reason
Chardan
Jim McIlree
Price Target
$22
2025-10-30
initiated
Buy
Reason
Chardan analyst Jim McIlree initiated coverage of Kodiak AI (KDK) with a Buy rating and $22 price target. Kodiak trades at an 85% discount to Aurora Innovation (AUR), the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Kodiak's flagship product is the Kodiak Driver, an artificial intelligence-controlled system installed on trucks that enables autonomous driving. Chardan believes the company's expertise is unmatched and gives Kodiak an advantage over competitors in other off-road industrial markets.
TD Cowen
Hold
maintain
$8 -> $9
2025-05-09
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$8 -> $9
2025-05-09
maintain
Hold
Reason
About AUR
Aurora Innovation, Inc. develops the Aurora Driver, which is designed as a platform to adapt and interoperate among a multitude of vehicle types and applications. The Aurora Driver is an advanced and scalable suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services to transform the global transportation market. The Company has integrated the Aurora Driver into numerous different vehicle platforms designed to meet its requirements: from passenger vehicles to light commercial vehicles to Class 8 trucks. It intends to launch Aurora Driver for Freight, its driverless trucking subscription service, as its first commercial product. Its second core market focuses on passenger mobility, initially targeting the ride hailing space with Aurora Driver for Rides, its driverless ride hailing subscription service. Its third core market is local goods delivery, which spans several sub-segments, including last-mile parcel and post, prepared food, grocery, and business-to-business (B2B) delivery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
