IndiCue Sees FY27 Adjusted EBITDA of $10M-$20M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy CNVS?
Sees FY27 adjusted EBITDA $10M-$20M, reflecting the accretive nature of the transaction and continued margin expansion. IndiCue is EBITDA-positive at close and is expected to contribute approximately $38M of annualized revenue beginning in FY27, commencing April.
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Analyst Views on CNVS
Wall Street analysts forecast CNVS stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 2.710
Low
6.00
Averages
7.50
High
9.00
Current: 2.710
Low
6.00
Averages
7.50
High
9.00
About CNVS
Cineverse Corp. is a global streaming technology and entertainment company. The Company's business is operating as a portfolio of owned and operated streaming channels; a global aggregator and full-service distributor of feature films and television programs, and a technology software-as-a-service platform for over-the-top app development and content distribution through subscription video on demand (SVOD), dedicated ad-supported (AVOD), ad-supported streaming linear (FAST) channels, social video streaming services, and audio podcasts. Its streaming channels reach audiences in several distinct ways: direct-to-consumer, through these major application platforms, and through third party distributors of content on platforms. The Company's streaming technology platform, known as Matchpoint, is a software-based streaming operating platform which provides clients with AVOD, SVOD, transactional video on demand (TVOD) and linear capabilities, automates the distribution of content, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Cineverse Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations Amid Revenue Decline
- Disappointing Earnings: Cineverse reported a Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.05, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating challenges in profitability, while revenue plummeted 60% year-over-year to $16.29 million, falling short of estimates by $3.71 million, reflecting a significant decline in market demand.
- Future Guidance: The company provided revenue guidance of $115 to $120 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10 to $20 million for fiscal year 2027, indicating cautious optimism from management regarding future growth recovery despite current poor performance.
- User Growth Trend: Despite the financial downturn, Cineverse saw a 10% year-over-year increase in streaming viewers to 149 million, with total minutes streamed rising 33% to over 3.4 billion, suggesting sustained content demand that could lay the groundwork for future revenue growth.
- Financing and Acquisition Plans: Cineverse announced a $3 million public offering priced at $2.00 per share and plans to acquire IndiCue for $22 million, aiming to enhance its content library and market competitiveness, even as it faces financial pressures.
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Cineverse's Acquisitions Propel Financial Growth
- Acquisition-Driven Financial Growth: Cineverse's completion of acquisitions for Giant Worldwide and IndiCue is expected to significantly enhance financial growth and profitability outlook, with CEO McGurk noting a direct operating margin increase to 69% and adjusted EBITDA reaching $2.4 million, a $6 million improvement from the previous quarter.
- Revenue and Loss Improvement: CFO Lindsey reported quarterly revenues of $16.3 million, up from $12.4 million last quarter, while down from $40.7 million year-over-year; the net loss was $875,000, reflecting a $4.7 million improvement over the prior quarter, indicating positive changes in the company's profitability.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Management anticipates that the combined acquisitions of Giant and IndiCue will contribute over $50 million in revenue and $10 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2027, showcasing strong growth potential and market competitiveness.
- Streaming Ecosystem Growth: Cineverse's streaming platform reached 35.5 million unique monthly viewers, with a 15% year-over-year increase in SVOD subscribers to 1.55 million and 1.14 billion monthly streaming minutes, indicating robust momentum in user growth and content consumption.
See More
Cineverse Projects Optimistic FY 2027 Outlook
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- Q3 Performance Decline: The company reported Q3 revenue of $16.3 million, a 60% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to $22.8 million in theatrical revenue from 'Terrifier 3' in the prior year, yet the direct operating margin improved from 48% to 69%, showcasing effective cost management.
- Adjusted EBITDA Projections: Cineverse anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million for FY 2027, indicating confidence in profitability post-acquisition, especially in light of improved operating results.
- User Growth Trend: The number of streaming viewers increased approximately 10% year-over-year to 149 million in Q3, demonstrating success in user acquisition and retention, despite the overall stock price declining by 36.4% over the past year.
See More
Cineverse Set to Release Q3 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement: Cineverse is set to announce its Q3 earnings on February 17 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.03, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 108.8%, indicating serious profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Decline: Analysts project Cineverse's Q3 revenue to be $20 million, down 50.9% year-over-year, highlighting the pressures the company faces in a competitive market and the challenges to its growth trajectory.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Cineverse has only beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating considerable volatility in its performance and suggesting that investors should approach future expectations with caution.
- Financing and Acquisition Activity: Cineverse recently completed a $3.0 million public offering at $2.00 per share and plans to acquire IndiCue for $22 million, which may significantly impact its future financial health and market positioning.
See More
Cineverse Acquires IndiCue to Enhance Financial Performance
- IndiCue Acquisition: Cineverse is integrating IndiCue's solutions into its Matchpoint platform, which is expected to enhance content distribution and monetization capabilities, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the streaming market.
- Financial Outlook Improvement: Cineverse anticipates fiscal 2027 revenue between $115 million and $120 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $10 million and $20 million, indicating a positive impact on future financial performance from the acquisition.
- Successful Public Offering: Cineverse successfully priced its public offering of 1.5 million Class A shares at $2 per share, raising $3 million, which will be utilized to finance the acquisition of IndiCue and strengthen the company's capital structure.
- Positive Market Reaction: Cineverse's stock surged 20% following the acquisition announcement, with market sentiment turning bullish, and projections suggest the company's market capitalization could reach $500 million within 24 months, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential.
See More
Cineverse Acquires IndiCue to Drive Revenue Growth
- Revenue Expectations: Cineverse anticipates achieving $115-$120 million in revenue and $10-$20 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2027, indicating strong growth potential in its transition to technology-driven revenue.
- Strategic Acquisition Integration: By acquiring IndiCue, Cineverse integrates advertising technology directly into its Matchpoint platform, enhancing efficiency in content distribution and monetization, thereby strengthening its competitive edge in the streaming market.
- Customer Base Expansion: IndiCue currently has over 40 active clients and 75 publishers onboarding, expected to generate approximately $38 million in revenue in 2026, further solidifying Cineverse's market position in ad-supported streaming.
- Financing and Team Integration: The acquisition was financed by existing long-term shareholders, and Cineverse raised $13 million in convertible notes to support the transaction, while IndiCue's founding team joined Cineverse, enhancing the company's technological capabilities.
See More
Cineverse Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations Amid Revenue Decline
- Disappointing Earnings: Cineverse reported a Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.05, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating challenges in profitability, while revenue plummeted 60% year-over-year to $16.29 million, falling short of estimates by $3.71 million, reflecting a significant decline in market demand.
- Future Guidance: The company provided revenue guidance of $115 to $120 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10 to $20 million for fiscal year 2027, indicating cautious optimism from management regarding future growth recovery despite current poor performance.
- User Growth Trend: Despite the financial downturn, Cineverse saw a 10% year-over-year increase in streaming viewers to 149 million, with total minutes streamed rising 33% to over 3.4 billion, suggesting sustained content demand that could lay the groundwork for future revenue growth.
- Financing and Acquisition Plans: Cineverse announced a $3 million public offering priced at $2.00 per share and plans to acquire IndiCue for $22 million, aiming to enhance its content library and market competitiveness, even as it faces financial pressures.
See More
Cineverse's Acquisitions Propel Financial Growth
- Acquisition-Driven Financial Growth: Cineverse's completion of acquisitions for Giant Worldwide and IndiCue is expected to significantly enhance financial growth and profitability outlook, with CEO McGurk noting a direct operating margin increase to 69% and adjusted EBITDA reaching $2.4 million, a $6 million improvement from the previous quarter.
- Revenue and Loss Improvement: CFO Lindsey reported quarterly revenues of $16.3 million, up from $12.4 million last quarter, while down from $40.7 million year-over-year; the net loss was $875,000, reflecting a $4.7 million improvement over the prior quarter, indicating positive changes in the company's profitability.
- Future Revenue Expectations: Management anticipates that the combined acquisitions of Giant and IndiCue will contribute over $50 million in revenue and $10 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2027, showcasing strong growth potential and market competitiveness.
- Streaming Ecosystem Growth: Cineverse's streaming platform reached 35.5 million unique monthly viewers, with a 15% year-over-year increase in SVOD subscribers to 1.55 million and 1.14 billion monthly streaming minutes, indicating robust momentum in user growth and content consumption.
See More
Cineverse Projects Optimistic FY 2027 Outlook
- Financial Outlook Upgrade: Cineverse expects FY 2027 revenue to range between $115 million and $120 million, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $85.23 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth, particularly following the acquisitions of Giant and IndiCue.
- Q3 Performance Decline: The company reported Q3 revenue of $16.3 million, a 60% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to $22.8 million in theatrical revenue from 'Terrifier 3' in the prior year, yet the direct operating margin improved from 48% to 69%, showcasing effective cost management.
- Adjusted EBITDA Projections: Cineverse anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million for FY 2027, indicating confidence in profitability post-acquisition, especially in light of improved operating results.
- User Growth Trend: The number of streaming viewers increased approximately 10% year-over-year to 149 million in Q3, demonstrating success in user acquisition and retention, despite the overall stock price declining by 36.4% over the past year.
See More
Cineverse Set to Release Q3 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement: Cineverse is set to announce its Q3 earnings on February 17 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.03, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 108.8%, indicating serious profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Decline: Analysts project Cineverse's Q3 revenue to be $20 million, down 50.9% year-over-year, highlighting the pressures the company faces in a competitive market and the challenges to its growth trajectory.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Cineverse has only beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating considerable volatility in its performance and suggesting that investors should approach future expectations with caution.
- Financing and Acquisition Activity: Cineverse recently completed a $3.0 million public offering at $2.00 per share and plans to acquire IndiCue for $22 million, which may significantly impact its future financial health and market positioning.
See More
Cineverse Acquires IndiCue to Enhance Financial Performance
- IndiCue Acquisition: Cineverse is integrating IndiCue's solutions into its Matchpoint platform, which is expected to enhance content distribution and monetization capabilities, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the streaming market.
- Financial Outlook Improvement: Cineverse anticipates fiscal 2027 revenue between $115 million and $120 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $10 million and $20 million, indicating a positive impact on future financial performance from the acquisition.
- Successful Public Offering: Cineverse successfully priced its public offering of 1.5 million Class A shares at $2 per share, raising $3 million, which will be utilized to finance the acquisition of IndiCue and strengthen the company's capital structure.
- Positive Market Reaction: Cineverse's stock surged 20% following the acquisition announcement, with market sentiment turning bullish, and projections suggest the company's market capitalization could reach $500 million within 24 months, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential.
See More
Cineverse Acquires IndiCue to Drive Revenue Growth
- Revenue Expectations: Cineverse anticipates achieving $115-$120 million in revenue and $10-$20 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2027, indicating strong growth potential in its transition to technology-driven revenue.
- Strategic Acquisition Integration: By acquiring IndiCue, Cineverse integrates advertising technology directly into its Matchpoint platform, enhancing efficiency in content distribution and monetization, thereby strengthening its competitive edge in the streaming market.
- Customer Base Expansion: IndiCue currently has over 40 active clients and 75 publishers onboarding, expected to generate approximately $38 million in revenue in 2026, further solidifying Cineverse's market position in ad-supported streaming.
- Financing and Team Integration: The acquisition was financed by existing long-term shareholders, and Cineverse raised $13 million in convertible notes to support the transaction, while IndiCue's founding team joined Cineverse, enhancing the company's technological capabilities.
See More
