Headland Capital Fully Exits Knife River Position
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy KNF?
Source: Fool
- Exit Transaction: On January 28, Headland Capital disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold all 63,636 shares of Knife River, with an estimated transaction value of approximately $4.89 million, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future prospects.
- Poor Market Performance: As of January 27, Knife River's shares were priced at $68.59, down 31.4% over the past year and significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 47.5 percentage points, reflecting market pessimism regarding its performance.
- Financial Condition: Despite Knife River's recent record third-quarter revenue of $1.2 billion, up 9% year-over-year, the market's reaction remains tepid due to margin pressures in certain regions, highlighting the challenges the company faces.
- Future Growth Risks: Knife River's growth now hinges on flawless execution, margin recovery, and disciplined balance sheet management, and in the current market environment, investor patience is being tested, potentially leading to a reassessment of risk tolerance among investors.
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Analyst Views on KNF
Wall Street analysts forecast KNF stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 88.260
Low
75.00
Averages
88.00
High
106.00
Current: 88.260
Low
75.00
Averages
88.00
High
106.00
About KNF
Knife River Corporation is an aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services provider. Its segments include West, Mountain, Central and Energy Services. Each geographic segment offers a vertically integrated suite of products and services, including aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and contracting services, while the Energy Services segment, which has locations throughout the Company’s geographic footprint, produces and supplies liquid asphalt and related services, primarily for use in asphalt road construction, and is a supplier to some of the other segments. Through its network of 182 active aggregate sites, 106 ready-mix plants and 51 asphalt plants, and 9 liquid asphalt terminals. It supplies construction materials and contracting services to customers in 14 states. Its construction materials are sold to public and private-sector customers, including federal, state, and municipal governments, as well as industrial, commercial, and residential developers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Reaction: This rating change has attracted significant investor attention, likely leading to increased trading volume in the short term, which could exacerbate stock price volatility and affect the company's market performance.
- Investor Sentiment: A downgrade typically prompts a reevaluation of the company's fundamentals, potentially leading more investors to sell, further depressing the stock price and impacting the company's ability to raise capital.
- Long-term Implications: If the market maintains a pessimistic outlook on Knife River, it could hinder future financing and expansion plans, negatively affecting the company's long-term growth potential.
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- Manufacturing Production Growth: January manufacturing production rose 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations of 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 11 months, which could strengthen market confidence in economic recovery.
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Knife River Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
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- Market Rating: Despite the strong earnings, J.P. Morgan rated Knife River as Neutral, highlighting that the risk/reward profile is not attractive enough, suggesting investors should cautiously assess future profitability and growth potential.
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See More
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- Strong Economic Data: US December capital goods new orders rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, indicating a rebound in capital spending that boosts market confidence and drives stock prices higher.
- Housing Market Recovery: December housing starts increased by 6.2% month-over-month to 1.404 million, significantly surpassing the expected 1.304 million, suggesting a recovery in the housing market that could stimulate investment and consumption in related sectors.
- Manufacturing Production Growth: January manufacturing production rose by 0.6% month-over-month, stronger than the expected 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 11 months, indicating a recovery in manufacturing that supports overall economic growth expectations.
- Optimistic Stock Market Performance: Over 75% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that beat expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, providing strong support for the stock market despite lingering doubts about future interest rate policies.
See More
Knife River Shares Drop Over 4% After Wells Fargo Downgrade
- Downgrade Impact: Knife River shares fell over 4% in recent Wednesday trading following Wells Fargo's downgrade, indicating market concerns about the company's future performance and potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: This rating change has attracted significant investor attention, likely leading to increased trading volume in the short term, which could exacerbate stock price volatility and affect the company's market performance.
- Investor Sentiment: A downgrade typically prompts a reevaluation of the company's fundamentals, potentially leading more investors to sell, further depressing the stock price and impacting the company's ability to raise capital.
- Long-term Implications: If the market maintains a pessimistic outlook on Knife River, it could hinder future financing and expansion plans, negatively affecting the company's long-term growth potential.
See More
US Stock Markets Rise on Strong Economic Data
- Strong Economic Data: US December capital goods new orders rose 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.3%, indicating a rebound in capital spending and boosting market confidence in economic recovery.
- Housing Market Recovery: December housing starts increased by 6.2% month-over-month to 1.404 million, significantly exceeding expectations of 1.304 million, suggesting a revival in the real estate market that could drive growth in related sectors.
- Manufacturing Production Growth: January manufacturing production rose 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations of 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 11 months, which indicates a recovery momentum in manufacturing that may further propel economic growth.
- Optimistic Corporate Earnings: Over 75% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, which will further boost market sentiment and attract investor interest.
See More
US Stock Markets Rise on Positive Economic Data
- Strong Economic Data: US December capital goods new orders rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, indicating a rebound in capital spending that could further boost stock markets.
- Housing Market Recovery: December housing starts increased by 6.2% month-over-month to 1.404 million, significantly surpassing the expected 1.304 million, suggesting a recovery in the real estate market that may enhance investment confidence in related sectors.
- Manufacturing Production Growth: January manufacturing production rose 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations of 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 11 months, which could strengthen market confidence in economic recovery.
- Optimistic Corporate Earnings: Over 75% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, reflecting ongoing improvements in corporate profitability that may further drive stock market gains.
See More
Knife River Corporation Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Growth Outlook
- Significant Earnings Growth: Knife River achieved a 7% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $497 million in 2025, demonstrating effective strategic execution that is expected to provide robust support for future investments and expansions.
- Active Acquisition Strategy: The company completed five acquisitions in 2025, particularly a bolt-on deal in Montana, and anticipates continued activity in 2026, which will further enhance market competitiveness and drive revenue growth.
- Record Backlog: By the end of 2025, Knife River's backlog reached $1 billion, a 38% year-over-year increase, with approximately 75% expected to be completed in 2026, indicating strong market demand and future revenue assurance.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management expects consolidated revenue for 2026 to be between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $520 million and $560 million, reflecting confidence in ongoing investments and market expansion.
See More
Knife River Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Strong Earnings Report: Knife River reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.56, beating expectations by $0.16, indicating robust profitability that may enhance investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $755.1 million, a 14.9% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $28.5 million, reflecting positive performance amid recovering market demand and potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Market Rating: Despite the strong earnings, J.P. Morgan rated Knife River as Neutral, highlighting that the risk/reward profile is not attractive enough, suggesting investors should cautiously assess future profitability and growth potential.
- Concerns Over Long-Term Value: Analysts express reservations about Knife River's growth narrative, citing a lack of evidence for long-term value creation, which may impact investor confidence and the company's future market performance.
See More
