Grzebinski Expects Steady Revenue Growth in 2026
CEO Grzebinski said, "2026 is off to a good start. While macro factors-including Venezuelan oil flows and ongoing tariff developments-may create some near-term noise, they also could present upside for demand. We exited the year with solid momentum; refinery activity is steady, inland barge utilization is improving, and spot rates appear to have reached a floor with early signs of firming. Coastal market conditions remain constructive, with pricing continuing to move in the right direction. In Distribution and Services, even though demand will vary across product lines, our power generation business remains a standout. A growing backlog, persistent customer demand, and the rising need for dependable 24/7 power are driving sustained strength in this segment and helping balance softness elsewhere. Overall, we expect to deliver consistent, year-over-year earnings growth in 2026, supported by stable operations, improving market fundamentals, and strong execution across the Company." The company said, "In inland marine, limited new barge construction continues to support stable market fundamentals. Refinery utilization is expected to remain solid and petrochemicals customer demand is expected to improve. With these trends, we expect our barge utilization rates to be in the low 90% range for the year, with pricing improving as the year progresses. In addition, 2026 is expected to be a lower maintenance year for the fleet, providing more barges available for service. Overall, inland revenues for the full year are anticipated to increase low to mid-single digits year-over-year. As is typical, seasonal winter weather has set in and will weigh on revenues and margins in the first quarter. Factoring in the 2025 fourth quarter term renewals, we expect operating margins will gradually improve over the course of the year with the first quarter expected to be the lowest, averaging in the high-teens to low 20% range for the full year. In coastal marine, market conditions remain favorable, and supply and demand remain balanced across the industry fleet. Steady customer demand is expected to keep our barge utilization in the mid-90% range. Even with a high number of shipyards throughout the year, revenues for the full year are expected to increase in the mid-single digits compared to 2025. Coastal operating margins are expected to be in the high-teens range on a full year basis with some pressure early in the year due to planned shipyards. In distribution and services, we expect stable growth, supported by rising customer demand in several areas offsetting weakness in others. Deliveries, however, are likely to remain uneven due to ongoing availability constraints and long OEM lead times. Power generation will continue to be a strong contributor to the segment, driven by solid demand trends, a growing backlog, and heightened customer focus on dependable prime power and backup solutions. Marine repair activity is expected to remain steady, and on-highway service and repair are expected to continue to recover. Revenues in oil and gas are expected to decline in the double-digit range as demand continues to soften. Overall, we expect total distribution and services revenues to be flat to slightly higher year over year with strength in power generation helping to offset lower oil and gas activity. Operating margins are projected to be in mid-to-high single-digit range on average for the full year."
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- Market Performance: Shares of Kirby Corporation have decreased by 5.5% in the pre-market trading following the announcement of their Q4 revenue results.
- Revenue Miss: The company reported a revenue miss for the fourth quarter, which contributed to the decline in share prices.
- Earnings Beat: Kirby Corporation reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.68, exceeding expectations by $0.05, indicating stable profitability and increased market confidence.
- Revenue Miss: Revenue reached $851.8 million, up 6.2% year-over-year, but fell short of expectations by $8.92 million, reflecting challenges from intensified market competition and demand fluctuations.
- Improved Utilization Rates: Inland marine utilization averaged in the mid to high 80% range during Q4, with further improvements expected into the low 90% range in Q1 2026, signaling a recovery in market demand.
- Strong Power Generation Growth: Power generation revenue increased by 10% sequentially and 47% year-over-year, driven by robust order activity and large project wins, highlighting the company's growth potential in the energy sector.
- Earnings Announcement: Kirby Corporation is scheduled to announce its Q4 earnings on January 29 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.63, reflecting a 26.4% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Analysts project Kirby's revenue to reach $860.72 million, representing a 7.3% year-over-year increase, showcasing the company's robust performance and growth potential in the market.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past year, Kirby has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating strong performance in profitability and market expectation management.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward and three downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced four upward and one downward revision, reflecting market divergence and uncertainty regarding Kirby's future performance.

- Active Options Trading: Carmax Inc. recorded an options trading volume of 20,138 contracts today, equivalent to approximately 2 million shares, representing 45.1% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating heightened market interest in its future performance.
- High Volume Analysis: Notably, the $55 strike call option has seen significant activity with 8,829 contracts traded today, representing about 882,900 underlying shares, suggesting bullish sentiment among investors at this price level.
- Kirby Corp. Options Activity: Concurrently, Kirby Corp. has an options trading volume of 3,047 contracts, equivalent to approximately 304,700 shares, which accounts for 43.2% of its average daily trading volume over the past month, indicating market interest in this company as well.
- Put Option Trading: Within Kirby Corp.'s trading, the $100 strike put option has seen 2,004 contracts traded, representing about 200,400 shares, reflecting a bearish sentiment among investors regarding this price, potentially signaling caution about its future performance.
- Dow Theory Buy Signal: Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted that a Dow Theory buy signal has been triggered, indicating that the primary market trend remains upward, suggesting that the bull market may still have unfinished business as 2026 approaches.
- Industrial and Transportation Stocks Rally: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been in a sustained uptrend since August, posting a 13% price return in 2025, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index surged 17% over the past six weeks, reaching its first record high since late 2024, fulfilling the confirmation required by Dow Theory.
- Transportation Stocks Outperform: Over the past three months, transportation stocks have outperformed both industrial stocks and the broader S&P 500, with the SPDR S&P Transportation ETF rising 18.3%, compared to a 7.9% increase in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, indicating strong leadership from the transportation sector.
- Historical Data Supports Signal: Since 1964, Dow Theory buy signals have led to an average 12-month forward return of 11.1% for the S&P 500, with stocks finishing higher 83% of the time, demonstrating the historical effectiveness and potential market implications of this signal.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Kirby Corporation will announce its Q4 2025 results at 6:00 a.m. CST on January 29, 2026, followed by a conference call at 7:30 a.m. CST, enhancing transparency and investor trust through direct interaction with management.
- Investor Participation: Participants must pre-register to receive dial-in information and a PIN, ensuring smooth access to the call, which reflects the company's commitment to investor relations and aims to enhance investor engagement and satisfaction.
- Information Access Channels: Financial results and related information will be available via an 8-K filing prior to the call and can be accessed on the company's website, ensuring timely access to key information for investors and facilitating market understanding of the company's performance.
- Company Background: Kirby Corporation is the largest domestic tank barge operator in the U.S., specializing in transporting liquid products including petrochemicals and refined petroleum, showcasing its leadership and market influence in the marine transportation sector.









