GEO Group's BI Awarded $121M Skip Tracing Contract by ICE

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Updated: Dec 22 2025

0mins

The GEO Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, BI Incorporated, has been awarded a contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for the provision of skip tracing services. Skip tracing services entail enhanced location research with identifiable information, commercial data verification, and physical observation to verify current address information and investigate alternative address information for individuals on the federal government's non-detained docket. The new contract has a term of two years, with an initial term of one year, effective December 16, 2025, and an additional one-year period. The estimated revenue value of the two-year contract is up to approximately $121M.

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GEO

$16.34+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on GEO

Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Analyst Rating

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 16.050

Low

30.00

Averages

34.00

High

37.00

Current: 16.050

Low

30.00

Averages

34.00

High

37.00

JonesResearch

Buy

downgrade

$50 -> $37

2025-11-07

Reason

JonesResearch

Price Target

$50 -> $37

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

downgrade

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $37 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The pathway toward $3B+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring has begun tot show for FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm revised its estimates downward, however, to account for slower-than-expected growth, but noted that it remains bullish on all segments of GEO, in particular the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.

JonesResearch

Jason Weaver

Buy

maintain

$50 -> $45

2025-08-07

Reason

JonesResearch

Jason Weaver

Price Target

$50 -> $45

2025-08-07

maintain

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch analyst Jason Weaver lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q2 report the Q2 beat. The firm cites alternatives to detention growth for the target cut. Geo's Intensive Supervision Appearance Program commentary disappointed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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About GEO

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.