Macau GGR Performance: Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) increased by 15% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion last month, aligning with market expectations despite lower VIP room win rates in recent weeks.
Q4 Outlook for Casino Stocks: Goldman Sachs anticipates strong Q4 results for Macau casino stocks, with quarterly GGR rising 14% year-on-year to MOP66.1 billion, nearing pre-pandemic levels.
Market Share Changes: Recent surveys indicate that GALAXY ENT and WYNN MACAU gained market share, while SJM HOLDINGS, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts lost ground in the competitive landscape.
MGM CHINA Royalty Fee Increase: MGM CHINA announced a doubling of its royalty fee to 3.5% of net revenue, leading to a forecasted reduction in EBITDA and earnings, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its target price for the company.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00027 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00027 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00027 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00027 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 40.020
Low
Averages
High
Current: 40.020
Low
Averages
High
Citi
Buy
maintain
$54
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$54
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating from Citi is based on the expectation of a 13% year-over-year increase in industry EBITDA for casino stocks, driven by a 15% year-over-year increase in quarterly gross gaming revenue (GGR). This positive outlook suggests that the overall health of the casino industry is improving, leading to increased profitability, as indicated by a projected increase in the EBITDA margin to 27.5%.
Specifically, the report highlights that GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA are likely to report the largest quarter-over-quarter market share improvements, which supports a "Buy" rating for these stocks. Conversely, SJM HOLDINGS is expected to experience the largest market share loss due to the closure of satellite casinos, resulting in a "Sell" rating for that stock. The ratings reflect the analysts' confidence in the growth potential of certain companies within the casino sector while cautioning against others facing challenges.
Citi
Citi
maintain
$54
2026-01-09
Reason
Citi
Citi
Price Target
$54
2026-01-09
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) is a Buy, primarily due to the company's expected EBITDA growth of 31% YoY in 4Q25, which is significantly higher than the projected 14% growth for the overall Macau gaming industry. This anticipated growth is attributed to several concerts being held at Galaxy Macau and favorable VIP hold rates. The potential for above-average EBITDA growth is expected to drive a short-term increase in the stock price, leading Citi to set a target price of HKD54 for the company.
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CLSA
CLSA
Outperform
downgrade
2026-01-09
Reason
CLSA
CLSA
Price Target
2026-01-09
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
The analyst rating from CLSA is based on the expectation of a 15% growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau's gaming industry, which is anticipated to lead to a 16% year-over-year increase in industry EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching USD2.2 billion. CLSA has revised its earnings forecasts by incorporating actual GGR data and adjusting market share and profit margin forecasts. As a result, they have lowered the target price for WYNN MACAU while raising it for GALAXY ENT, which remains rated as "Outperform." GALAXY ENT and MGM CHINA are highlighted as CLSA's top picks in the industry, with a focus on EBITDA profit margins and dividends being key considerations for investors ahead of the results release.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
maintain
$53.7
2026-01-08
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$53.7
2026-01-08
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from Goldman Sachs for GALAXY ENT is a "Buy" due to several positive factors. The company experienced a market share growth of 1.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, reaching 21.8%, which exceeded the target of approximately 21% set for year-end. This growth is attributed to a higher-than-normal VIP hold and an improvement in high-end luxury consumption in key markets such as Hong Kong and Hainan, which is expected to support retail sales recovery and year-over-year growth. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates a luck-adjusted EBITDA of HKD3.6 billion for 4Q25, with the potential for even better actual performance. These factors contributed to the maintenance of a positive outlook and a target price of HKD53.7 for the stock.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
