Surge in Domestic Airfares: U.S. domestic airfares have increased by 22% on average across major routes, driven by reduced airline capacity and budget carrier pullbacks, marking the highest fare levels of 2025.
Impact of Spirit Airlines and FAA Cuts: Spirit Airlines' route reductions during its bankruptcy and FAA-mandated flight cuts of 10% at high-volume airports are contributing to rising prices, particularly in markets where low-cost competition has diminished.
Notable Route Price Increases: Significant fare hikes are observed in routes like Atlanta to Las Vegas (up 502% year-over-year) and Chicago to San Francisco (up 95%), while some routes from New York's JFK Airport are experiencing price declines.
Future Outlook: With ongoing capacity constraints and increased demand for holiday travel, airfares are expected to remain elevated through the end of the year, despite potential normalization once Spirit stabilizes and FAA restrictions are lifted.
Wall Street analysts forecast ULCC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ULCC is 6.00 USD with a low forecast of 3.00 USD and a high forecast of 9.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ULCC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ULCC is 6.00 USD with a low forecast of 3.00 USD and a high forecast of 9.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.080
Low
3.00
Averages
6.00
High
9.00
Current: 5.080
Low
3.00
Averages
6.00
High
9.00
Susquehanna
Neutral
maintain
$4 -> $5
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$4 -> $5
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Frontier Group to $5 from $4 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview. The firm sees a "constructive fundamental backdrop" for the airlines into fiscal 2026. Select carriers will benefit from brand loyalty and diverse revenue streams, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Neutral -> Underperform
downgrade
$5 -> $4
2026-01-06
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$5 -> $4
2026-01-06
downgrade
Neutral -> Underperform
Reason
BofA downgraded Frontier Group to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $4, down from $5.
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UBS
Atul Maheswari
Neutral
maintain
$4 -> $6
2025-12-12
Reason
UBS
Atul Maheswari
Price Target
$4 -> $6
2025-12-12
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Atul Maheswari raised the firm's price target on Frontier Group to $6 from $4 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Frontier has the opportunity to gain share as Spirit Airlines pulls back, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm remains on the sidelines given growth in legacy basic economy seating coupled with the run-up in the stock.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$9 -> $8
2025-12-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$9 -> $8
2025-12-08
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Frontier Group to $8 from $9 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm maintains an "Attractive" industry view of U.S. airlines into 2026, contending that if the group can finally get a clean, "boring" year to demonstrate their true normalized earnings power, it "could be a transformative year for the stocks."
About ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiary, Frontier Airlines, Inc., which is an ultra-low-cost carrier company. The Company offers flights throughout the United States and to select near international destinations in the Americas. It has a fleet of approximately 159 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, consisting of eight A320ceos, 82 A320neos, 21 A321ceos and 48 A321neos. The Company primarily provides air transportation for passengers. It provides passenger airline service primarily to leisure travelers. It combines its fares with flexible optional services for an additional cost. Such additional options include carry-on and checked baggage, advance seat selection, extended-legroom premium seats, priority boarding and ticket changes and cancellations, as well as bundled options combining various optional services. The Company serves approximately 100 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
