Equinor Expects Johan Sverdrup Oil Production to Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy EQNR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Production Decline Forecast: Equinor anticipates a minimum 10% decline in oil production at its Johan Sverdrup field by 2026, where exports averaged 712K bbl/day last year, indicating potential revenue impacts for the company.
- Cost Control Initiatives: The company plans to cut operating costs by 10% by 2026 and reduce its organic capital expenditure guidance by $4 billion through 2027, addressing challenges posed by insufficient industry investment.
- Adjusted Share Buyback Plan: Equinor announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion this year, significantly down from $5 billion in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to capital allocation in line with J.P. Morgan analysts' expectations.
- Quarterly Earnings Performance: Despite a 22% year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income to $6.2 billion in Q4, which exceeded analysts' expectations of $5.93 billion, net profit fell to $1.31 billion from $2 billion a year earlier, demonstrating the company's resilience amid challenges.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy EQNR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on EQNR
Wall Street analysts forecast EQNR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EQNR is 23.89 USD with a low forecast of 22.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 26.460
Low
22.00
Averages
23.89
High
25.79
Current: 26.460
Low
22.00
Averages
23.89
High
25.79
About EQNR
Equinor ASA, formerly Statoil ASA is a Norway-based international energy company. The Company’s purpose is to turn natural resources into energy. Equinor sells crude oil and delivers natural gas to the European market. It is also engaged in processing, refining, offshore wind and carbon capture and storage activities. Equinor ASA has five reporting segments: Exploration & Production Norway (E&P Norway), Exploration & Production International (E&P International), Exploration & Production USA (E&P USA), Marketing, Midstream & Processing (MMP) and Renewables (REN). The Company has several subsidiaries such as Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Ltd, Equinor Wind Power AS, Equinor International Netherlands BV and Equinor Brasil Energia Ltda.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Equinor ASA Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Market Uncertainty
- Strong Financial Performance: Equinor reported earnings per share of $0.81 for 2025, with operational cash flow reaching $18 billion, demonstrating the company's robust financial performance amidst market uncertainty, reflecting its competitive edge in oil and gas production.
- CapEx Adjustment: Management has reduced the capital expenditure outlook by $4 billion for 2026-2027, primarily focused on renewables and low-carbon projects, aiming to address market volatility and optimize capital allocation to ensure maximization of long-term shareholder value.
- Project Progress: The Empire Wind project is over 60% complete, with total CapEx expected at $7.5 billion; despite facing legal and regulatory challenges, the project is anticipated to qualify for $2.5 billion in tax credits, enhancing the company's financial flexibility.
- Shareholder Return Plans: The company aims to increase its quarterly cash dividend by $0.02 per share annually and announced a $1.5 billion share buyback program for 2026, indicating management's confidence in future cash flows and profitability, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and boosting market confidence.
See More
Equinor Expects Johan Sverdrup Oil Production to Decline
- Production Decline Forecast: Equinor anticipates a minimum 10% decline in oil production at its Johan Sverdrup field by 2026, where exports averaged 712K bbl/day last year, indicating potential revenue impacts for the company.
- Cost Control Initiatives: The company plans to cut operating costs by 10% by 2026 and reduce its organic capital expenditure guidance by $4 billion through 2027, addressing challenges posed by insufficient industry investment.
- Adjusted Share Buyback Plan: Equinor announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion this year, significantly down from $5 billion in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to capital allocation in line with J.P. Morgan analysts' expectations.
- Quarterly Earnings Performance: Despite a 22% year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income to $6.2 billion in Q4, which exceeded analysts' expectations of $5.93 billion, net profit fell to $1.31 billion from $2 billion a year earlier, demonstrating the company's resilience amid challenges.
See More
Equinor Reports Q4 Revenue Decline Amid Strong Production
- Revenue and Earnings Performance: Equinor's Q4 adjusted revenue reached $25.26 billion, a 4% year-over-year decline, although it surpassed the market consensus of $20.17 billion, with adjusted operating income at $6.20 billion, down 22% due to falling liquid prices.
- Production and Output Growth: The company reported total equity liquids and gas production of 2,198 mboe per day in Q4, a 6% increase year-over-year, with equity gas production rising 9%, reflecting strong contributions from the Norwegian Continental Shelf and E&P USA segment.
- Dividend and Buyback Plans: Equinor proposed a cash dividend of 39 cents per share for Q4 2025, a 2-cent increase from the previous quarter, and plans to initiate the first tranche of its 2026 share buyback program on February 5, 2026, with a total buyback amount expected to reach $1.5 billion.
- Future Outlook and Investment: The company anticipates approximately $13 billion in inorganic capital expenditures for 2026, with oil and gas production expected to grow by about 3% year-over-year, while planned maintenance is projected to reduce equity production by around 35,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, emphasizing a focus on cost control.
See More
Equinor Declares 5.4% Increase in Quarterly Dividend
- Dividend Increase: Equinor has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, representing a 5.4% increase from the previous $0.37, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability and cash flow, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Yield Metrics: The forward yield of 5.92% not only provides shareholders with a stable return but may also enhance market demand for Equinor's stock, potentially boosting its market performance.
- Share Buyback Program: Equinor will initiate a share buyback program on February 5, 2026, with an initial purchase of up to $375 million aimed at reducing the company's issued share capital, which is expected to positively impact shareholder value by enhancing earnings per share.
- Buyback Details: The first tranche will involve buying back shares worth up to $123.75 million, set to be completed by March 30, 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future market conditions and its commitment to creating long-term value for shareholders.
See More
Equinor Launches $1.5 Billion Share Buyback Program for 2026
- Buyback Program Scale: Equinor has announced a total share buyback program of up to $1.5 billion for 2026, with the first tranche commencing on February 5, 2026, aiming to purchase up to $123.75 million in shares, reflecting the company's confidence in future market performance.
- Share Buyback Details: The first tranche is set to conclude by March 30, 2026, with all purchased shares expected to be canceled, thereby reducing the company's issued share capital, enhancing earnings per share, and increasing shareholder value.
- Agreement with Norwegian State: Under the agreement with the Norwegian State, the State will vote in favor of canceling the repurchased shares at the 2026 annual general meeting to maintain its 67% ownership stake, ensuring the State's shareholder rights within the company.
- Market Compliance: The buyback will occur on the Oslo Stock Exchange and potentially other trading venues within the EEA, with all transactions adhering to applicable safe harbor conditions to ensure compliance and mitigate market manipulation risks.
See More
Equinor Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Strong Financial Performance: Equinor reported an adjusted operating income of $6.20 billion and a net income of $1.31 billion for Q4 2025, demonstrating resilience despite lower liquid prices, as higher production and elevated gas prices in the US partially offset the impact.
- Significant Production Growth: The total equity production reached 2,198 mboe per day in Q4, a 6% increase year-over-year, with full-year production hitting a record high of 2,137 mboe per day, indicating successful investments and developments in the Norwegian Continental Shelf and international oil and gas sectors.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company proposed an increase in the fourth-quarter cash dividend to $0.39 per share and announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion for 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Equinor expects around 3% growth in oil and gas production for 2026 and plans to drill 30 exploration wells in Norway, Brazil, and Angola, highlighting its expansion in global markets and focus on sustainable development.
See More
Equinor ASA Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Amid Market Uncertainty
- Strong Financial Performance: Equinor reported earnings per share of $0.81 for 2025, with operational cash flow reaching $18 billion, demonstrating the company's robust financial performance amidst market uncertainty, reflecting its competitive edge in oil and gas production.
- CapEx Adjustment: Management has reduced the capital expenditure outlook by $4 billion for 2026-2027, primarily focused on renewables and low-carbon projects, aiming to address market volatility and optimize capital allocation to ensure maximization of long-term shareholder value.
- Project Progress: The Empire Wind project is over 60% complete, with total CapEx expected at $7.5 billion; despite facing legal and regulatory challenges, the project is anticipated to qualify for $2.5 billion in tax credits, enhancing the company's financial flexibility.
- Shareholder Return Plans: The company aims to increase its quarterly cash dividend by $0.02 per share annually and announced a $1.5 billion share buyback program for 2026, indicating management's confidence in future cash flows and profitability, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and boosting market confidence.
See More
Equinor Expects Johan Sverdrup Oil Production to Decline
- Production Decline Forecast: Equinor anticipates a minimum 10% decline in oil production at its Johan Sverdrup field by 2026, where exports averaged 712K bbl/day last year, indicating potential revenue impacts for the company.
- Cost Control Initiatives: The company plans to cut operating costs by 10% by 2026 and reduce its organic capital expenditure guidance by $4 billion through 2027, addressing challenges posed by insufficient industry investment.
- Adjusted Share Buyback Plan: Equinor announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion this year, significantly down from $5 billion in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to capital allocation in line with J.P. Morgan analysts' expectations.
- Quarterly Earnings Performance: Despite a 22% year-over-year decline in adjusted operating income to $6.2 billion in Q4, which exceeded analysts' expectations of $5.93 billion, net profit fell to $1.31 billion from $2 billion a year earlier, demonstrating the company's resilience amid challenges.
See More
Equinor Reports Q4 Revenue Decline Amid Strong Production
- Revenue and Earnings Performance: Equinor's Q4 adjusted revenue reached $25.26 billion, a 4% year-over-year decline, although it surpassed the market consensus of $20.17 billion, with adjusted operating income at $6.20 billion, down 22% due to falling liquid prices.
- Production and Output Growth: The company reported total equity liquids and gas production of 2,198 mboe per day in Q4, a 6% increase year-over-year, with equity gas production rising 9%, reflecting strong contributions from the Norwegian Continental Shelf and E&P USA segment.
- Dividend and Buyback Plans: Equinor proposed a cash dividend of 39 cents per share for Q4 2025, a 2-cent increase from the previous quarter, and plans to initiate the first tranche of its 2026 share buyback program on February 5, 2026, with a total buyback amount expected to reach $1.5 billion.
- Future Outlook and Investment: The company anticipates approximately $13 billion in inorganic capital expenditures for 2026, with oil and gas production expected to grow by about 3% year-over-year, while planned maintenance is projected to reduce equity production by around 35,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, emphasizing a focus on cost control.
See More
Equinor Declares 5.4% Increase in Quarterly Dividend
- Dividend Increase: Equinor has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, representing a 5.4% increase from the previous $0.37, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability and cash flow, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Yield Metrics: The forward yield of 5.92% not only provides shareholders with a stable return but may also enhance market demand for Equinor's stock, potentially boosting its market performance.
- Share Buyback Program: Equinor will initiate a share buyback program on February 5, 2026, with an initial purchase of up to $375 million aimed at reducing the company's issued share capital, which is expected to positively impact shareholder value by enhancing earnings per share.
- Buyback Details: The first tranche will involve buying back shares worth up to $123.75 million, set to be completed by March 30, 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future market conditions and its commitment to creating long-term value for shareholders.
See More
Equinor Launches $1.5 Billion Share Buyback Program for 2026
- Buyback Program Scale: Equinor has announced a total share buyback program of up to $1.5 billion for 2026, with the first tranche commencing on February 5, 2026, aiming to purchase up to $123.75 million in shares, reflecting the company's confidence in future market performance.
- Share Buyback Details: The first tranche is set to conclude by March 30, 2026, with all purchased shares expected to be canceled, thereby reducing the company's issued share capital, enhancing earnings per share, and increasing shareholder value.
- Agreement with Norwegian State: Under the agreement with the Norwegian State, the State will vote in favor of canceling the repurchased shares at the 2026 annual general meeting to maintain its 67% ownership stake, ensuring the State's shareholder rights within the company.
- Market Compliance: The buyback will occur on the Oslo Stock Exchange and potentially other trading venues within the EEA, with all transactions adhering to applicable safe harbor conditions to ensure compliance and mitigate market manipulation risks.
See More
Equinor Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Strong Financial Performance: Equinor reported an adjusted operating income of $6.20 billion and a net income of $1.31 billion for Q4 2025, demonstrating resilience despite lower liquid prices, as higher production and elevated gas prices in the US partially offset the impact.
- Significant Production Growth: The total equity production reached 2,198 mboe per day in Q4, a 6% increase year-over-year, with full-year production hitting a record high of 2,137 mboe per day, indicating successful investments and developments in the Norwegian Continental Shelf and international oil and gas sectors.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company proposed an increase in the fourth-quarter cash dividend to $0.39 per share and announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion for 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Equinor expects around 3% growth in oil and gas production for 2026 and plans to drill 30 exploration wells in Norway, Brazil, and Angola, highlighting its expansion in global markets and focus on sustainable development.
See More
