Elon Musk Claims 80% of Tesla's Worth is in Robotics as China's UBTech Secures Historic Deal; JPMorgan Predicts Beijing Companies at the Forefront of the Humanoid Revolution | Intellectia.AI
Elon Musk Claims 80% of Tesla's Worth is in Robotics as China's UBTech Secures Historic Deal; JPMorgan Predicts Beijing Companies at the Forefront of the Humanoid Revolution
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Elon Musk's Robotics Vision: Elon Musk predicts that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots could account for about 80% of the company's total value, coinciding with a significant contract awarded to Chinese firm UBTech for humanoid robots.
Market Trends in Humanoid Robotics: JPMorgan analysts note a shift in the humanoid robotics industry towards commercialization, identifying Chinese companies as key players, while Tesla's focus on robotics comes amid declining vehicle sales and a strategic pivot in its Master Plan IV.
TSLA
$489.88+Infinity%1D
Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 384.14 USD with a low forecast of 19.05 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
34 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 384.14 USD with a low forecast of 19.05 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Buy
10 Hold
10 Sell
Hold
Current: 475.310
Low
19.05
Averages
384.14
High
600.00
Current: 475.310
Low
19.05
Averages
384.14
High
600.00
Mizuho
Outperform
maintain
$475 -> $530
2025-12-16
New
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$475 -> $530
2025-12-16
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $530 from $475 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment group heading into 2026. U.S. electric vehicle sales were down 20%-50% month-over-month in October and November, and 2026 launch cancels and delays will be a headwind in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho sees a mixed sector outlook with EV headwinds for the analog and auto component supply chain, with industrials potentially performing better. It cites improving investor sentiment on robotaxis for Tesla's target boost.
Morgan Stanley
Andrew Percoco
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$410 -> $425
2025-12-07
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Andrew Percoco
Price Target
$410 -> $425
2025-12-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $425, up from $410, after assuming coverage under a new analyst. The firm sees Tesla becoming a market leader across autonomous mobility, renewable energy, and robotics. However, with the shares at trading at 30-times estimated 2030 EBITDA and potential downside to consensus estimates in the near-term, Morgan Stanley prefers to await a better entry point. Morgan Stanley's 2026 auto volume forecast for Tesla is now 13% below consensus due to a more cautious electric vehicle industry outlook. It also believes Tesla's "non-auto catalyst path" is already priced into the shares.
Mizuho
Vijay Rakesh
Outperform
maintain
$485 -> $475
2025-11-25
Reason
Mizuho
Vijay Rakesh
Price Target
$485 -> $475
2025-11-25
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $475 from $485 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm reduced estimates for Tesla citing weaker electric vehicle markets in China and the U.S. The company also faces potential posing headwinds for analog in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes China could see electric vehicle demand headwinds as the government reduces subsidies by 50% in 2026.
Stifel
Buy
maintain
$483 -> $508
2025-11-17
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$483 -> $508
2025-11-17
maintain
Buy
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $508 from $483 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After "strong" Q3 sales, the firm expects some headwinds for auto sales following the expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit, but the firm also believes Tesla is making strong progress on FSD and Robotaxi, both of which it view as critical to value creation. The firm is raising its price target based on its sum-of-the-parts analysis, the analyst noted.
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
