Editorial | The Arrival of the Trivial Package Tax
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 29 2025
0mins
Source: WSJ
Trade Policy Changes
- End of De Minimis Exemption: President Trump has eliminated the de minimis tariff exemption for all imports, which previously allowed packages valued under $800 to enter the U.S. without incurring heavy import taxes.
- Impact on Small Importers: This policy shift is expected to adversely affect small U.S. importers, who will now face increased costs due to tariffs on previously exempt shipments.
Consequences of Tariff Policy
- Adaptation by Chinese Retailers: Chinese retailers, whom the tariffs aim to penalize, have already adjusted their strategies to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.
- Volume of Affected Packages: The de minimis exemption had a significant reach, covering over 1.3 billion packages last year, indicating a substantial number of consumers and businesses that will now be affected by the new tariff regulations.
Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPS is 107.06 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 126.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 109.300
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 109.300
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides a range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of United States domestic air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Indian sub-continent, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions consist of forwarding, logistics, customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
