Junlebao Dairy's Listing Application: Junlebao Dairy has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Morgan Stanley as joint sponsors.
Market Position and Performance: As of 2024, Junlebao is the third-largest dairy company in China, holding a 4.3% market share, and reported a 29.6% increase in net profit to RMB837 million for the first three quarters of the year.
Ownership History: In 2010, Mengniu Dairy acquired a 51% stake in Junlebao, becoming its largest shareholder, but later sold its shares to Penghua Fund and Junqian Management in 2019.
Market Insights: HSBC Research has set a year-end target for the Hang Seng Index at 31,000, emphasizing the importance of market confidence and corporate earnings growth.
Wall Street analysts forecast 02319 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02319 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 02319 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02319 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 15.790
Low
Averages
High
Current: 15.790
Low
Averages
High
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$20
2025-10-15
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$20
AI Analysis
2025-10-15
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating for MENGNIU DAIRY was influenced by several factors outlined in Morgan Stanley's report. The key reasons for the rating include:
1. Prolonged Weak Liquid Milk Demand: The report indicates that there has been a sustained decline in demand for liquid milk, which negatively impacts the company's sales and profitability.
2. Market Share Loss: MENGNIU DAIRY is experiencing a loss in market share, further contributing to the challenges in maintaining sales levels.
3. Revised Earnings Forecasts: The EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2025 was slashed by 13%, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7-8%. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's financial performance.
4. Sales Forecast Reduction: There was a 7% reduction in the sales forecast for 2025, indicating expected lower revenue generation.
5. Low Base for Future Growth: The report suggests that the low base for 2026 and 2027 may hinder growth prospects in those years.
Despite these challenges, the target price was adjusted from HK$20 to HK$18.5, and the Overweight rating was maintained, suggesting that analysts still see potential for the stock to outperform the market in the long term, despite the near-term headwinds.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Buy
to
Buy
downgrade
2025-10-09
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
2025-10-09
downgrade
Buy
to
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that Chinese dairy companies, including MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI, will face greater short-term revenue pressure due to weak consumption sentiment and intensifying price competition in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an ongoing surplus in raw milk supply. The firm lowered its sales and net profit forecasts for MENGNIU DAIRY by 2-3% and 5-7%, respectively, citing weak demand for liquid milk, deteriorating operating leverage, and increased promotional spending. For YILI, forecasts were reduced by no more than 2%, attributed to its diversified product portfolio and solid channel execution, which provide relatively high resilience. Consequently, Goldman Sachs cut its target prices for both companies but maintained a "Buy" rating for each stock.
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About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
