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News

8.5

01-20aastocks

CN Dairy Company Junlebao Submits IPO Application in Hong Kong; MENGNIU DAIRY Previously Held Significant Stake

4.5

2025-12-31aastocks

Analysis of the Top 5 Strongest and Weakest Stocks in HSCEI for 2025 (Table)

4.0

2025-11-05aastocks

JPM Highlights Recommendations for Shifting Investments into Underperforming Quality Chinese Stocks (Table)

4.5

2025-10-23aastocks

G Sachs Identifies HK Stocks That Stand to Gain from a Weaker USD (Table)

6.5

2025-10-13aastocks

<Research> JPM: Start of Risk-Off Rotation; Investors Advised to Move Towards Quality Underperformers

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 59.00M, with retail investors contributing 32.00M and major investors adding -18.00M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

downgrade

$20

2025-10-15

Reason

The analyst rating for MENGNIU DAIRY was influenced by several factors outlined in Morgan Stanley's report. The key reasons for the rating include: 1. Prolonged Weak Liquid Milk Demand: The report indicates that there has been a sustained decline in demand for liquid milk, which negatively impacts the company's sales and profitability. 2. Market Share Loss: MENGNIU DAIRY is experiencing a loss in market share, further contributing to the challenges in maintaining sales levels. 3. Revised Earnings Forecasts: The EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2025 was slashed by 13%, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7-8%. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's financial performance. 4. Sales Forecast Reduction: There was a 7% reduction in the sales forecast for 2025, indicating expected lower revenue generation. 5. Low Base for Future Growth: The report suggests that the low base for 2026 and 2027 may hinder growth prospects in those years. Despite these challenges, the target price was adjusted from HK$20 to HK$18.5, and the Overweight rating was maintained, suggesting that analysts still see potential for the stock to outperform the market in the long term, despite the near-term headwinds.

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

Price Target

$20

2025-10-15

downgrade

The analyst rating for MENGNIU DAIRY was influenced by several factors outlined in Morgan Stanley's report. The key reasons for the rating include: 1. Prolonged Weak Liquid Milk Demand: The report indicates that there has been a sustained decline in demand for liquid milk, which negatively impacts the company's sales and profitability. 2. Market Share Loss: MENGNIU DAIRY is experiencing a loss in market share, further contributing to the challenges in maintaining sales levels. 3. Revised Earnings Forecasts: The EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2025 was slashed by 13%, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7-8%. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's financial performance. 4. Sales Forecast Reduction: There was a 7% reduction in the sales forecast for 2025, indicating expected lower revenue generation. 5. Low Base for Future Growth: The report suggests that the low base for 2026 and 2027 may hinder growth prospects in those years. Despite these challenges, the target price was adjusted from HK$20 to HK$18.5, and the Overweight rating was maintained, suggesting that analysts still see potential for the stock to outperform the market in the long term, despite the near-term headwinds.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

to

Buy

downgrade

2025-10-09

Reason

Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that Chinese dairy companies, including MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI, will face greater short-term revenue pressure due to weak consumption sentiment and intensifying price competition in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an ongoing surplus in raw milk supply. The firm lowered its sales and net profit forecasts for MENGNIU DAIRY by 2-3% and 5-7%, respectively, citing weak demand for liquid milk, deteriorating operating leverage, and increased promotional spending. For YILI, forecasts were reduced by no more than 2%, attributed to its diversified product portfolio and solid channel execution, which provide relatively high resilience. Consequently, Goldman Sachs cut its target prices for both companies but maintained a "Buy" rating for each stock.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

to

Buy

Price Target

2025-10-09

downgrade

Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that Chinese dairy companies, including MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI, will face greater short-term revenue pressure due to weak consumption sentiment and intensifying price competition in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an ongoing surplus in raw milk supply. The firm lowered its sales and net profit forecasts for MENGNIU DAIRY by 2-3% and 5-7%, respectively, citing weak demand for liquid milk, deteriorating operating leverage, and increased promotional spending. For YILI, forecasts were reduced by no more than 2%, attributed to its diversified product portfolio and solid channel execution, which provide relatively high resilience. Consequently, Goldman Sachs cut its target prices for both companies but maintained a "Buy" rating for each stock.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

5Y Average PE

19.46

Current PE

11.21

Overvalued PE

28.25

Undervalued PE

10.67

Forward EV/EBITDA

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

13.60

Current EV/EBITDA

6.83

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

18.22

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

8.98

Forward PS

5Y Average PS

1.04

Current PS

0.61

Overvalued PS

1.43

Undervalued PS

0.65

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