Citrone Predicts Continued Weakness for U.S. Equities
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy MSTR?
Source: CNBC
- Pessimistic Market Outlook: Billionaire hedge fund manager Rob Citrone forecasts continued weakness for U.S. equities post-2025, particularly due to the 40% premium U.S. stocks hold over global markets, raising investor concerns about future returns.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Citrone highlights that recent earnings reports from major hyperscalers indicate a projected 70% increase in capital expenditures to $600 billion in 2026, yet the uncertainty surrounding returns from AI investments has led to heightened market volatility and frequent stock adjustments across sectors.
- Emerging Market Opportunities: Citrone favors emerging markets, especially Mexico and Argentina, as their companies often operate as monopolies or oligopolies, providing insulation from competitive pressures, with Mexico's strong ties to the U.S. enhancing its growth potential.
- Shorting Digital Asset Companies: Citrone remains bearish on digital asset treasury companies, asserting that these firms, which have seen their valuations plummet alongside a 40% drop in Bitcoin, are still trading at inflated premiums, making them a more attractive short than Bitcoin itself.
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Analyst Views on MSTR
Wall Street analysts forecast MSTR stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 133.880
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
Current: 133.880
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
About MSTR
Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated, is a bitcoin treasury and business intelligence company. The Company provides cloud-native, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered enterprise analytics software to thousands of global customers. The Company’s Strategy ONE platform provides access to AI-powered workflows, unlimited data sources, cloud-native technologies, and performance to speed up time from data to action. Strategy One delivers visualization, reporting, and embedded analytics capabilities across retail, banking, technology, manufacturing, insurance, consulting, healthcare, telecommunications, and the public sector. Its Strategy Mosaic is a universal intelligence layer that provides enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The Strategy Mosaic offers data clarity and connection by eliminating trade-offs between flexibility, control, and speed.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Strategy Acquires 2,486 Bitcoins for $168.4M
- Bitcoin Acquisition: Strategy acquired 2,486 bitcoins for an aggregate price of $168.4 million between February 9 and 16, with an average purchase price of $67,710, despite Bitcoin trading 1.19% lower at $68,086 before Tuesday's market open, indicating the impact of market volatility on its investment strategy.
- Total Holdings: The company's total bitcoin holdings now stand at 717,131 BTC, purchased for a total of $54.5 billion at an average price of $76,027, reflecting its long-term positioning in the bitcoin market and confidence in future price appreciation.
- Funding Sources: The latest bitcoin purchases were funded through proceeds from its at-the-market sales program, where Strategy sold 785,354 shares of its 9.0% SERIES A PERPETUAL STRETCH PREFERRED STOCK for net proceeds of $78.4 million, enhancing its liquidity.
- Future Outlook: Founder Michael Saylor stated that the company plans to buy Bitcoin “every quarter” indefinitely, despite the risk of Bitcoin prices potentially dropping to $8,000, demonstrating a strong belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin.
See More
Coinbase Executive Discusses Market Volatility and Bitcoin Holdings
- Market Volatility Analysis: Coinbase's Head of Institutional Strategy, John D’Agostino, stated on CNBC that while the market decline appears significant in dollar terms, it represents typical volatility for cryptocurrencies on a percentage basis, indicating that the market is still within normal fluctuation ranges.
- Bitcoin Holdings Situation: Strategy Inc currently holds 717,131 BTC at an average cost of approximately $76,027, while Bitcoin is trading near $68,000, indicating that the company's holdings are underwater; however, CEO Saylor asserts that fears of forced liquidation are “unfounded.”
- Liquidation Risk Assessment: Both Saylor and Strategy CEO Phong Le emphasized that liquidation would only occur if Bitcoin crashed by 90% and remained there for five years, a scenario deemed “extremely unlikely,” showcasing the company's confidence in its assets.
- Coinbase Financial Challenges: D’Agostino's defense comes as Coinbase faces challenges, with the company’s Q4 earnings missing key metrics, prompting Piper Sandler to cut its price target from $270 to $150, reflecting market concerns about Coinbase's future performance.
See More
Tech Stocks and Bitcoin Experience Synchronized Weakness
- Market Trend Reversal: The tight correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks, and Bitcoin that fueled massive gains in 2024 and 2025 has now flipped into synchronized weakness, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV recently trading near $80, significantly below its 40-week moving average of $106, indicating a notable decline in market confidence.
- Bitcoin Price Warning: After hitting Roque's downside target of $60,000 on February 6, he cautions that Bitcoin may further decline to $40,000, as it currently trades approximately 32% below its 200-day moving average, suggesting that the drawdown may not yet be complete by historical standards.
- Bear Market Potential Analysis: Bitcoin has suffered five major bear markets since 2011, with an average decline of around 80%; applying a 72% decline from the recent peak implies a potential drop to $35,000, while Roque considers $40,000 a more practical downside target, indicating further weakness may be on the horizon.
- Strategy Inc. Risk Intensification: As a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, Strategy Inc.'s initial downside target was $100, but analysts believe this figure is overly optimistic, with potential declines to $20; given its holdings of over 717,000 Bitcoins and an unrealized loss of approximately $5.5 billion, pressure on Strategy's balance sheet could escalate quickly if Bitcoin falls below $60,000.
See More
Strategy Acquires 2,486 Bitcoins for $168.4 Million
- Bitcoin Acquisition Details: Strategy purchased 2,486 Bitcoins between February 9 and 16 at an average price of $67,710, totaling $168.4 million, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $5.7 billion as Bitcoin trades at $68,000, reflecting a significant financial strain.
- Funding Sources Analysis: The purchase was funded through $90.5 million in common stock sales and $78.4 million from preferred stock sales, indicating Strategy's robust capital-raising capacity with $7.88 billion remaining under common stock authorization and $3.54 billion under preferred stock.
- Debt Conversion Strategy: Strategy plans to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible debt into equity over the next three to six years to reduce leverage while maintaining flexibility in its Bitcoin strategy, although this will dilute existing shareholders as bondholders become equity holders.
- Technical Analysis Risks: MSTR is nearing the Parabolic SAR support at $104.79, with a critical risk of closing below $110, which could trigger a decline to $90-$95, highlighting the current market's volatility and potential for a technical breakdown.
See More
Citrone Predicts Continued Weakness for U.S. Equities
- Pessimistic Market Outlook: Billionaire hedge fund manager Rob Citrone forecasts continued weakness for U.S. equities post-2025, particularly due to the 40% premium U.S. stocks hold over global markets, raising investor concerns about future returns.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Citrone highlights that recent earnings reports from major hyperscalers indicate a projected 70% increase in capital expenditures to $600 billion in 2026, yet the uncertainty surrounding returns from AI investments has led to heightened market volatility and frequent stock adjustments across sectors.
- Emerging Market Opportunities: Citrone favors emerging markets, especially Mexico and Argentina, as their companies often operate as monopolies or oligopolies, providing insulation from competitive pressures, with Mexico's strong ties to the U.S. enhancing its growth potential.
- Shorting Digital Asset Companies: Citrone remains bearish on digital asset treasury companies, asserting that these firms, which have seen their valuations plummet alongside a 40% drop in Bitcoin, are still trading at inflated premiums, making them a more attractive short than Bitcoin itself.
See More
Bitmine Holds Over $6 Billion in ETH Staked Assets
- Significant ETH Holdings: As of February 16, 2026, Bitmine has staked 3,040,483 ETH, valued at $6.1 billion based on a price of $1,998 per ETH, demonstrating the company's strong influence and confidence in the Ethereum market.
- Investment and Growth Strategy: Bitmine recently invested $200 million in Beast Industries, further solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency sector, while its total assets reach $9.6 billion, indicating an active approach to diversified investments.
- Strong Market Performance: Bitmine's stock trades with an average daily volume of $900 million in the U.S., ranking 158th, which highlights its liquidity and investor interest, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company plans to launch the MAVAN staking solution in Q1 2026, expected to generate $252 million annually from its ETH assets, reflecting Bitmine's firm belief in the future growth potential of Ethereum.
See More
Strategy Acquires 2,486 Bitcoins for $168.4M
- Bitcoin Acquisition: Strategy acquired 2,486 bitcoins for an aggregate price of $168.4 million between February 9 and 16, with an average purchase price of $67,710, despite Bitcoin trading 1.19% lower at $68,086 before Tuesday's market open, indicating the impact of market volatility on its investment strategy.
- Total Holdings: The company's total bitcoin holdings now stand at 717,131 BTC, purchased for a total of $54.5 billion at an average price of $76,027, reflecting its long-term positioning in the bitcoin market and confidence in future price appreciation.
- Funding Sources: The latest bitcoin purchases were funded through proceeds from its at-the-market sales program, where Strategy sold 785,354 shares of its 9.0% SERIES A PERPETUAL STRETCH PREFERRED STOCK for net proceeds of $78.4 million, enhancing its liquidity.
- Future Outlook: Founder Michael Saylor stated that the company plans to buy Bitcoin “every quarter” indefinitely, despite the risk of Bitcoin prices potentially dropping to $8,000, demonstrating a strong belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin.
See More
Coinbase Executive Discusses Market Volatility and Bitcoin Holdings
- Market Volatility Analysis: Coinbase's Head of Institutional Strategy, John D’Agostino, stated on CNBC that while the market decline appears significant in dollar terms, it represents typical volatility for cryptocurrencies on a percentage basis, indicating that the market is still within normal fluctuation ranges.
- Bitcoin Holdings Situation: Strategy Inc currently holds 717,131 BTC at an average cost of approximately $76,027, while Bitcoin is trading near $68,000, indicating that the company's holdings are underwater; however, CEO Saylor asserts that fears of forced liquidation are “unfounded.”
- Liquidation Risk Assessment: Both Saylor and Strategy CEO Phong Le emphasized that liquidation would only occur if Bitcoin crashed by 90% and remained there for five years, a scenario deemed “extremely unlikely,” showcasing the company's confidence in its assets.
- Coinbase Financial Challenges: D’Agostino's defense comes as Coinbase faces challenges, with the company’s Q4 earnings missing key metrics, prompting Piper Sandler to cut its price target from $270 to $150, reflecting market concerns about Coinbase's future performance.
See More
Tech Stocks and Bitcoin Experience Synchronized Weakness
- Market Trend Reversal: The tight correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks, and Bitcoin that fueled massive gains in 2024 and 2025 has now flipped into synchronized weakness, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV recently trading near $80, significantly below its 40-week moving average of $106, indicating a notable decline in market confidence.
- Bitcoin Price Warning: After hitting Roque's downside target of $60,000 on February 6, he cautions that Bitcoin may further decline to $40,000, as it currently trades approximately 32% below its 200-day moving average, suggesting that the drawdown may not yet be complete by historical standards.
- Bear Market Potential Analysis: Bitcoin has suffered five major bear markets since 2011, with an average decline of around 80%; applying a 72% decline from the recent peak implies a potential drop to $35,000, while Roque considers $40,000 a more practical downside target, indicating further weakness may be on the horizon.
- Strategy Inc. Risk Intensification: As a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, Strategy Inc.'s initial downside target was $100, but analysts believe this figure is overly optimistic, with potential declines to $20; given its holdings of over 717,000 Bitcoins and an unrealized loss of approximately $5.5 billion, pressure on Strategy's balance sheet could escalate quickly if Bitcoin falls below $60,000.
See More
Strategy Acquires 2,486 Bitcoins for $168.4 Million
- Bitcoin Acquisition Details: Strategy purchased 2,486 Bitcoins between February 9 and 16 at an average price of $67,710, totaling $168.4 million, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $5.7 billion as Bitcoin trades at $68,000, reflecting a significant financial strain.
- Funding Sources Analysis: The purchase was funded through $90.5 million in common stock sales and $78.4 million from preferred stock sales, indicating Strategy's robust capital-raising capacity with $7.88 billion remaining under common stock authorization and $3.54 billion under preferred stock.
- Debt Conversion Strategy: Strategy plans to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible debt into equity over the next three to six years to reduce leverage while maintaining flexibility in its Bitcoin strategy, although this will dilute existing shareholders as bondholders become equity holders.
- Technical Analysis Risks: MSTR is nearing the Parabolic SAR support at $104.79, with a critical risk of closing below $110, which could trigger a decline to $90-$95, highlighting the current market's volatility and potential for a technical breakdown.
See More
Citrone Predicts Continued Weakness for U.S. Equities
- Pessimistic Market Outlook: Billionaire hedge fund manager Rob Citrone forecasts continued weakness for U.S. equities post-2025, particularly due to the 40% premium U.S. stocks hold over global markets, raising investor concerns about future returns.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Citrone highlights that recent earnings reports from major hyperscalers indicate a projected 70% increase in capital expenditures to $600 billion in 2026, yet the uncertainty surrounding returns from AI investments has led to heightened market volatility and frequent stock adjustments across sectors.
- Emerging Market Opportunities: Citrone favors emerging markets, especially Mexico and Argentina, as their companies often operate as monopolies or oligopolies, providing insulation from competitive pressures, with Mexico's strong ties to the U.S. enhancing its growth potential.
- Shorting Digital Asset Companies: Citrone remains bearish on digital asset treasury companies, asserting that these firms, which have seen their valuations plummet alongside a 40% drop in Bitcoin, are still trading at inflated premiums, making them a more attractive short than Bitcoin itself.
See More
Bitmine Holds Over $6 Billion in ETH Staked Assets
- Significant ETH Holdings: As of February 16, 2026, Bitmine has staked 3,040,483 ETH, valued at $6.1 billion based on a price of $1,998 per ETH, demonstrating the company's strong influence and confidence in the Ethereum market.
- Investment and Growth Strategy: Bitmine recently invested $200 million in Beast Industries, further solidifying its position in the cryptocurrency sector, while its total assets reach $9.6 billion, indicating an active approach to diversified investments.
- Strong Market Performance: Bitmine's stock trades with an average daily volume of $900 million in the U.S., ranking 158th, which highlights its liquidity and investor interest, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company plans to launch the MAVAN staking solution in Q1 2026, expected to generate $252 million annually from its ETH assets, reflecting Bitmine's firm belief in the future growth potential of Ethereum.
See More
