Citi Reduces JD-SW (09618.HK) 4Q25 Adjusted Net Profit Prediction by Over 66% Due to Absence of Short-Term Catalysts
Citi's Research Report on JD-SW: Citi has released a report indicating a significant reduction in JD-SW's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 4Q25 and 1Q26 due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, cutting estimates by 66.2% and 13.8% respectively.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for JD.com has been lowered from USD 37 to USD 34, although Citi maintains a Buy rating, citing an undemanding valuation despite limited short-term catalysts.
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JD-SW Performance: JD-SW (09618.HK) experienced a decline of 1.511% with significant short selling activity amounting to $123.42M and a ratio of 36.227%.
Surge in Robot Demand: Following the Spring Festival Gala, search volume for robots on JD's platform increased by over 300%, leading to a 460% rise in customer inquiries and a 150% increase in order volume from over 100 cities across China.
JD Logistics Response: JD Logistics (02618.HK) reported a 1.065% drop in stock price and noted a rise in demand for after-sales services due to increased robot consumption, prompting the establishment of a comprehensive repair and maintenance service system in 10 major cities.
Citi's Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered JD-SW's 4Q25 adjusted net profit forecast by over 66% due to a lack of short-term catalysts.

Showcasing Robotics at Spring Festival Gala: Four Chinese tech companies, including Unitree Robotics and DOBOT, showcased their robots at the Spring Festival Gala, attracting significant attention and leading to a surge in online searches and orders for robots.
Stock Performance of Robot-Related Companies: Hong Kong-listed robot-related stocks performed well, with notable increases in share prices for companies like UBTECH ROBOTICS and DOBOT, despite broader market trends.
Technological Features of Showcased Robots: Unitree's humanoid robots featured advanced technology, including Hesai JT128 LiDAR, highlighting the integration of cutting-edge technology in robotics.
Market Reactions and Forecast Adjustments: Following the gala, some companies like JD-SW faced downgrades in forecasts, while others, such as GEEKPLUS-W, showed positive stock movements, indicating mixed market reactions to the robotics sector.

Citi's Research Report on JD-SW: Citi has released a report indicating a significant reduction in JD-SW's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 4Q25 and 1Q26 due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, cutting estimates by 66.2% and 13.8% respectively.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for JD.com has been lowered from USD 37 to USD 34, although Citi maintains a Buy rating, citing an undemanding valuation despite limited short-term catalysts.

Investment Announcement: JD-SW announced a total investment of over RMB1.3 billion during the Spring Festival holiday to enhance benefits for its workforce, including overtime pay and subsidies.
Growth in Workforce: The company has welcomed 150,000 new full-time food delivery riders over the past year and plans to invest RMB22 billion in building 150,000 new 'Courier Homes' in the next five years.
Logistics Expansion: JD-SW aims to procure 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones to strengthen its logistics full-supply chain capabilities.
Market Performance: The stock is currently experiencing a decline, with a short selling ratio of 28.297% and a short selling amount of $412.06 million.

Regulatory Action: China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) summoned major platform companies, including Alibaba, Douyin, Baidu, Tencent, JD, and Meituan, to ensure compliance with various laws and regulations.
Focus on Fair Competition: The SAMR emphasized the need for these companies to regulate their promotional activities and eliminate "involutionary" competition to maintain a fair market environment.

Market Overview: The HSI opened 1.5% lower at 26,640, with significant declines in tech stocks such as TENCENT and KUAISHOU, which dropped 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.
Short Selling Activity: Notable short selling was observed in several tech stocks, including BIDU and BILIBILI, with ratios exceeding 20%, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.
PPI Data: China's Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY for January showed a decline of 1.4%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.9% and above the forecast of -1.5%.
AI Stock Rally: The AI sector saw gains with MINIMAX-WP rising 11.9% after launching a new programming model, while KNOWLEDGE ATLAS also experienced a significant increase of 16.9%.






