CICC: BABA-W (09988.HK) Qianwen Agent Enters the AI Service Era; Maintains Outperform Rating

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

09988+2.25%

Source: aastocks

Updated: Jan 16 2026

0mins

Source: aastocks

Qianwen App Launch: Alibaba's Qianwen App introduced new Agent features utilizing Chatbot technology, enhancing user experiences in lifestyle services, work, and education.
Integration with Alibaba Ecosystem: The app connects with Alibaba's services like Taobao and Alipay, enabling AI-driven functions such as food delivery, shopping, and travel bookings.
CICC's Financial Outlook: CICC maintained Alibaba's revenue and profit forecasts, setting target prices of USD204 in the US and HKD197 in Hong Kong, with an Outperform rating indicating potential upside.
Short Selling Data: Alibaba's short selling reached $3.92 billion with a ratio of 17.785%, reflecting market sentiment and trading activity.

09988

$168.5+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on 09988

Wall Street analysts forecast 09988 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 09988 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Analyst Rating

0 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Current: 164.800

Low

Averages

High

Current: 164.800

Low

Averages

High

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$210

2026-01-23

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$210

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

New

maintain

Overweight

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Overweight" due to the potential value unlocking through the spin-off and separate listing of its AI chip division, T-Head. The report suggests that while the spin-off could significantly enhance BABA-W's valuation, the company will need time to establish independent governance and client relationships before proceeding. This cautious optimism, combined with a target price of $210, reflects the belief in BABA-W's long-term growth potential despite the challenges ahead.

JPMorgan

Overweight

downgrade

$230 -> $215

2026-01-09

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$230 -> $215

2026-01-09

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan's research report provided a constructive view on Alibaba (BABA-W) and recommended an Overweight rating based on the expectation that the company's share price will overcome short-term profit pressures. The analysts believe that a re-rating will occur once the monetization inflection point of Alibaba's cloud business and generative AI becomes more evident. They anticipate that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will accelerate as generative AI workloads transition from pilot phases to broader deployments, indicating the company's capability to capture AI-driven demand in China. However, the report also noted a reduction in earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2027 and 2028 due to increased investments in various sectors and challenges in domestic e-commerce monetization amid sluggish consumer spending. This suggests that while the long-term outlook remains positive, there are short-term challenges that could lead to further earnings declines and increased volatility in trading.

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Morningstar

maintain

$251 -> $258

2025-11-27

Reason

Morningstar

Price Target

$251 -> $258

2025-11-27

maintain

Reason

The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is influenced by several key factors outlined in the article. Morningstar's report highlights that despite a significant QoQ decline in adjusted EBITA, the management's forecast for the cloud intelligence business indicates a shift from 'accelerating' to 'high' revenue growth. The guidance for customer management revenue aligns with expectations, suggesting stability in that area. Moreover, the broker believes that the company's business possesses a wide moat, indicating a competitive advantage, and that the market is underestimating the management's strong execution and the potential of the cloud business. This combination of factors leads to the conclusion that the company's value is still undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than the current stock price. Thus, the analyst maintains a positive outlook on BABA-W, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges.

CMBI

Buy

downgrade

2025-11-26

Reason

CMBI

Price Target

2025-11-26

downgrade

Buy

Reason

The analyst rating for BABA-W (09988.HK) is maintained at "Buy" by CMBI due to several factors. The company's revenue for 2FQ26 was RMB247.8 billion, which exceeded expectations, particularly driven by a strong performance in the cloud business, which grew by 34% YoY. CMBI also noted that the company's plan to reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market forecasts. Despite a slight decrease in the target price from US$209.4 to US$206.4, CMBI continues to view BABA-W as a core beneficiary in the AI sector, supporting their positive rating.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

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CICC: BABA-W (09988.HK) Qianwen Agent Enters the AI Service Era; Maintains Outperform Rating

Analyst Views on 09988

About the author

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