Tourism Growth and Challenges: During China's Golden Week (Oct. 1-8), domestic tourism trips reached 888 million, generating 809.01 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 1.8% and 7.6% increase from last year, but growth has slowed compared to earlier holidays, with average spending per trip down 3% from 2019.
Intense Competition in Hospitality: The tourism industry faces fierce competition, leading to significant price cuts in accommodation, with some hostels reducing rates by up to 60%. Despite high visitor numbers, profit margins remain tight for many businesses, as travelers increasingly book last-minute and seek cheaper options.
Changing Travel Trends: Many tourists opted to travel before or after the Golden Week to take advantage of lower prices, with hotel rates in late September being 20% cheaper than during the holiday. Increased demand was also noted in smaller cities, where prices are generally lower.
Economic Context and Future Outlook: While the Golden Week spurred record travel and spending, concerns about deflation persist, with China's consumer prices falling by 0.4% in August. Upcoming inflation data and retail sales figures are anticipated to provide further insights into the economic landscape.
Wall Street analysts forecast TCOM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TCOM is 85.00 USD with a low forecast of 82.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TCOM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TCOM is 85.00 USD with a low forecast of 82.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 62.100
Low
82.00
Averages
85.00
High
90.00
Current: 62.100
Low
82.00
Averages
85.00
High
90.00
BofA
Joyce Ju
Buy
maintain
$83 -> $85
2025-11-20
Reason
BofA
Joyce Ju
Price Target
$83 -> $85
AI Analysis
2025-11-20
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Joyce Ju raised the firm's price target on Trip.com to $85 from $83 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "solid results" in Q3, primarily driven by strong hotel bookings during the summer holidays and October's Golden Week. For Q4, the firm forecasts net revenue growth of 17% year-over-year, accelerating from Q3, driven by robust holiday demand in overseas markets that helps counter China's weakest seasonal quarter.
Barclays
Jiong Shao
Overweight
maintain
$85 -> $90
2025-11-19
Reason
Barclays
Jiong Shao
Price Target
$85 -> $90
2025-11-19
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Jiong Shao raised the firm's price target on Trip.com to $90 from $85 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's Q3 results were better than expected and the Q4 outlook was raised, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Trip.com offers a "bright spot" as consumption generally slows down.
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Citi
Buy
maintain
$85 -> $86
2025-11-19
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$85 -> $86
2025-11-19
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Trip.com to $86 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the Q3 report. The firm cites the company's strong booking volume growth and "disciplined" spending for the target bump.
Benchmark
Buy
maintain
$80 -> $82
2025-11-18
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$80 -> $82
2025-11-18
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark raised the firm's price target on Trip.com to $82 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following better-than-expected Q3 results. The firm, which believes Trip.com is well-positioned for scalable, sustainable growth, "moderately" raised its FY25 and FY26 estimates following the report.
About TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited is a global travel service provider comprising Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner and Qunar. Its one-stop travel platform connects its users and its ecosystem partners. It offers accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services and other travel-related services to meet the various booking and traveling needs of both leisure and business travelers through its travel platform. It helps travelers around the world make informed and cost-effective bookings for travel products and services and enables partners to connect their offerings with users through the aggregation of comprehensive travel-related content and resources and an advanced transaction platform, including apps, websites and 24/7 customer service centers. Ctrip provides travel and related services in China. Qunar is an online travel agency in China. Trip.com is an online travel agency for global travelers. Skyscanner is a travel search company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.