CFTC to Decide if Prediction Markets Constitute Gambling
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 31 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FLUT?
Source: Barron's
CFTC Chairman's Commitment: Michael Selig, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has pledged to clarify the agency's position on sports-related bets on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Comparison with State-Regulated Gambling: The clarification will address how these prediction markets differ from state-regulated gambling options provided by companies such as DraftKings and Flutter's FanDuel.
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Analyst Views on FLUT
Wall Street analysts forecast FLUT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLUT is 296.77 USD with a low forecast of 228.00 USD and a high forecast of 381.46 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
26 Analyst Rating
23 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 149.470
Low
228.00
Averages
296.77
High
381.46
Current: 149.470
Low
228.00
Averages
296.77
High
381.46
About FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc is an online sports betting and iGaming operator. Its segments include the United States (U.S.), United Kingdom and Ireland (UKI), Australia and International. The U.S. segment offers sports betting, casino, DFS and horse racing wagering products to players across various states in the United States, mainly online but with sports betting services also provided through retail outlets and certain online products in the province of Ontario in Canada. The UKI segment offers sports betting (sportsbook), iGaming products and other products through its Sky Betting & Gaming, Paddy Power, Betfair and tombola brands. Its Australia segment offers online sports betting products through its Sportsbet brand. The International segment includes its operations in 100 global markets and offers sports betting, casino, poker, rummy and lottery, mainly online. This segment includes Sisal, PokerStars, Snai, Betfair International, Adjarabet, MaxBet, Betnacional, and other brands.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Prediction Markets Attract Investor Attention
- Market Opportunity Analysis: DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment, and Robinhood Markets are actively entering the prediction markets space, although the fundamental value of prediction markets remains unclear, potentially leading to speculative behavior that could impact long-term investor decisions.
- Company Strategies: DraftKings offers prediction market trading in 47 states, while Flutter provides services through FanDuel in all 50 states, and Robinhood offers prediction markets across various sectors, indicating these companies' commitment to emerging markets.
- Risk Assessment: While prediction markets cater to customer demand, economic downturns or bear markets could quickly cool market enthusiasm, prompting investors to carefully evaluate the relationship between short-term trends and long-term value.
- Investor Recommendations: Given the volatility of prediction markets, investors are advised to consider investing in these companies only during challenging economic conditions to avoid potential losses stemming from short-term trends.
See More
MGM Shares Surge Following Sports Betting Performance: Will It Resist Prediction Market Challenges?
Impact of Prediction Markets: Prediction markets are emerging as a competitive threat to traditional sportsbooks, potentially reshaping the betting landscape.
Performance of Betting Operators: Despite the rise of prediction markets, at least one betting operator is thriving and maintaining its success in the industry.
See More
Three Growth Stocks Worth Investing In
- Cybersecurity Leader: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) continues to expand in the cybersecurity sector, with acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere expected to drive a 23% year-over-year growth in software product revenue and a 140 basis point increase in operating margin, reflecting strong market demand and profitability.
- Global Betting Giant: Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) holds a 47% net gaming revenue share in the U.S. online sports betting market, with projected revenue growth of 18% by 2025; despite facing competition in international markets, its strong brand and technology investments will continue to attract users and solidify its market leadership.
- AI Service Growth Potential: ServiceNow (NOW) aims for $1 billion in annual contract value by 2026, with a projected $600 million in 2025; its low single-digit churn rate and 295% average annual growth in customer spending demonstrate strong customer retention and ongoing revenue growth potential.
- Investment Opportunities: Despite the relatively high stock prices of Palo Alto Networks and ServiceNow, their robust revenue growth and market outlook make investing at current prices attractive, especially for investors looking to start with as little as $250.
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New York AG Warns of Risks in Prediction Markets
- Consumer Warning: New York Attorney General Letitia James cautions consumers about significant risks associated with unregulated prediction markets ahead of the Super Bowl, urging New Yorkers to trade cautiously to protect their finances, highlighting a strong commitment to consumer rights.
- Expected Trading Volume: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are projected to generate billions in trading volume during the Super Bowl, involving trades on game events and advertising companies, reflecting the potential market appeal of these platforms.
- Compliance Issues: James emphasizes that the products offered by prediction markets are essentially gambling disguised as event contracts, stressing the need for regulatory review to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators, indicating compliance challenges facing the industry.
- Regulatory Limitations: Although laws prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, industry experts express skepticism about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's ability to enforce regulations, particularly following government budget cuts, revealing the fragility of the regulatory environment.
See More
NFL Bans Prediction Market Ads for Super Bowl LX
- Advertising Ban: The NFL has prohibited prediction market ads during Super Bowl LX, categorizing them alongside firearms and tobacco, reflecting concerns over game integrity that could impact brand exposure and market participation for related companies.
- Commercial Costs: This year, 30-second Super Bowl ads cost between $8 million and $10 million, and while prediction markets cannot advertise, sports betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel will still participate, ensuring stable advertising revenue.
- Market Dynamics: Although Kalshi and Polymarket cannot advertise during the Super Bowl, they still allow betting on game outcomes, raising concerns over insider trading that could affect consumer confidence and market transparency.
- Future Outlook: The NFL's ban may lead to missed partnership opportunities for prediction market companies with major events, and until more regulations and safeguards are in place, the NFL is likely to maintain its distance, impacting potential advertising revenue.
See More
New York AG Warns of Risks in Prediction Markets Ahead of Super Bowl
- Risk Warning on Prediction Markets: New York Attorney General Letitia James highlighted that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi could attract billions in trades ahead of the Super Bowl, yet they lack consumer protections and regulation, increasing the risk of insider trading.
- Lack of Regulatory Safeguards: James emphasized that prediction markets are not overseen by the New York Gaming Commission, posing significant risks to consumers engaging in trades on these platforms, urging the public to exercise caution to protect their funds.
- Expected Trading Volume: As the Super Bowl approaches, prediction platforms are projected to generate billions in trading volume, allowing consumers to trade on events similar to DraftKings and FanDuel, but without the corresponding protective measures.
- Concerns Over Industry Stability: James warned that the nascent prediction market industry requires stronger prohibitions against insider betting and regulatory reviews to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators.
See More
Prediction Markets Attract Investor Attention
- Market Opportunity Analysis: DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment, and Robinhood Markets are actively entering the prediction markets space, although the fundamental value of prediction markets remains unclear, potentially leading to speculative behavior that could impact long-term investor decisions.
- Company Strategies: DraftKings offers prediction market trading in 47 states, while Flutter provides services through FanDuel in all 50 states, and Robinhood offers prediction markets across various sectors, indicating these companies' commitment to emerging markets.
- Risk Assessment: While prediction markets cater to customer demand, economic downturns or bear markets could quickly cool market enthusiasm, prompting investors to carefully evaluate the relationship between short-term trends and long-term value.
- Investor Recommendations: Given the volatility of prediction markets, investors are advised to consider investing in these companies only during challenging economic conditions to avoid potential losses stemming from short-term trends.
See More
MGM Shares Surge Following Sports Betting Performance: Will It Resist Prediction Market Challenges?
Impact of Prediction Markets: Prediction markets are emerging as a competitive threat to traditional sportsbooks, potentially reshaping the betting landscape.
Performance of Betting Operators: Despite the rise of prediction markets, at least one betting operator is thriving and maintaining its success in the industry.
See More
Three Growth Stocks Worth Investing In
- Cybersecurity Leader: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) continues to expand in the cybersecurity sector, with acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere expected to drive a 23% year-over-year growth in software product revenue and a 140 basis point increase in operating margin, reflecting strong market demand and profitability.
- Global Betting Giant: Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) holds a 47% net gaming revenue share in the U.S. online sports betting market, with projected revenue growth of 18% by 2025; despite facing competition in international markets, its strong brand and technology investments will continue to attract users and solidify its market leadership.
- AI Service Growth Potential: ServiceNow (NOW) aims for $1 billion in annual contract value by 2026, with a projected $600 million in 2025; its low single-digit churn rate and 295% average annual growth in customer spending demonstrate strong customer retention and ongoing revenue growth potential.
- Investment Opportunities: Despite the relatively high stock prices of Palo Alto Networks and ServiceNow, their robust revenue growth and market outlook make investing at current prices attractive, especially for investors looking to start with as little as $250.
See More
New York AG Warns of Risks in Prediction Markets
- Consumer Warning: New York Attorney General Letitia James cautions consumers about significant risks associated with unregulated prediction markets ahead of the Super Bowl, urging New Yorkers to trade cautiously to protect their finances, highlighting a strong commitment to consumer rights.
- Expected Trading Volume: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are projected to generate billions in trading volume during the Super Bowl, involving trades on game events and advertising companies, reflecting the potential market appeal of these platforms.
- Compliance Issues: James emphasizes that the products offered by prediction markets are essentially gambling disguised as event contracts, stressing the need for regulatory review to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators, indicating compliance challenges facing the industry.
- Regulatory Limitations: Although laws prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, industry experts express skepticism about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's ability to enforce regulations, particularly following government budget cuts, revealing the fragility of the regulatory environment.
See More
NFL Bans Prediction Market Ads for Super Bowl LX
- Advertising Ban: The NFL has prohibited prediction market ads during Super Bowl LX, categorizing them alongside firearms and tobacco, reflecting concerns over game integrity that could impact brand exposure and market participation for related companies.
- Commercial Costs: This year, 30-second Super Bowl ads cost between $8 million and $10 million, and while prediction markets cannot advertise, sports betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel will still participate, ensuring stable advertising revenue.
- Market Dynamics: Although Kalshi and Polymarket cannot advertise during the Super Bowl, they still allow betting on game outcomes, raising concerns over insider trading that could affect consumer confidence and market transparency.
- Future Outlook: The NFL's ban may lead to missed partnership opportunities for prediction market companies with major events, and until more regulations and safeguards are in place, the NFL is likely to maintain its distance, impacting potential advertising revenue.
See More
New York AG Warns of Risks in Prediction Markets Ahead of Super Bowl
- Risk Warning on Prediction Markets: New York Attorney General Letitia James highlighted that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi could attract billions in trades ahead of the Super Bowl, yet they lack consumer protections and regulation, increasing the risk of insider trading.
- Lack of Regulatory Safeguards: James emphasized that prediction markets are not overseen by the New York Gaming Commission, posing significant risks to consumers engaging in trades on these platforms, urging the public to exercise caution to protect their funds.
- Expected Trading Volume: As the Super Bowl approaches, prediction platforms are projected to generate billions in trading volume, allowing consumers to trade on events similar to DraftKings and FanDuel, but without the corresponding protective measures.
- Concerns Over Industry Stability: James warned that the nascent prediction market industry requires stronger prohibitions against insider betting and regulatory reviews to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators.
See More
