Brazilian Equities Surge as Commodity Prices Rise
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Strong Market Performance: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has surged approximately 20% in early 2026, significantly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which gained only 3%, indicating a robust recovery in Brazilian equities and a resurgence of investor confidence.
- Technical Breakout Signal: The EWZ/SPY relative spread has broken above its long-term downtrend, signaling a potential technical breakout that could attract more capital into Brazilian equities, marking an end to decades of underperformance.
- Macro Analysis Support: Otavio Tavi Costa, CEO of Azuria Capital, noted that Brazil's largest energy company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, is on the verge of a major breakout, indicating that the Brazilian market's rebound is closely tied to a larger shift in global markets, potentially signaling the start of a longer-term structural trend.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts at 22V Research are bullish on Brazil's prospects, suggesting that sectors like materials, energy, and banks will benefit from a weaker dollar, driving capital inflows and creating strong market momentum.
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Analyst Views on PBR
Wall Street analysts forecast PBR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PBR is 15.15 USD with a low forecast of 13.30 USD and a high forecast of 17.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 15.520
Low
13.30
Averages
15.15
High
17.00
Current: 15.520
Low
13.30
Averages
15.15
High
17.00
About PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras is a Brazil-based company. The Company specializes in the oil, natural gas and energy industry. The Company is engaged in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields and from shale or other rocks. Its segments include Exploration and Production (exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas); Refining, Transportation, and Marketing (refining, logistics, transport, trading of oil products, ethanol export, shale processing); Gas and Power (transportation and trading of natural and imported gas); Biofuels (production of biodiesel and ethanol); Distribution (fuel distribution); and Corporate (administrative and support functions).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Petrobras Reports Significant Increase in Proven Reserves to 12.1 Billion Barrels
- Reserve Growth: Petrobras estimates that its proven reserves of oil, condensate, and natural gas will rise to 12.1 billion barrels (84% oil) in 2025 from 11.4 billion barrels in 2024, reflecting outstanding asset performance, particularly in the Búzios, Tupi, Itapu, and Mero fields in the Santos Basin.
- Replacement Rate Improvement: The company achieved a reserve replacement rate of 175% in 2025 despite record annual production, demonstrating its exceptional resource management and development capabilities, which ensure future production stability.
- Contract Expansion: Petrobras has expanded and renewed oil sales contracts with Indian state-owned refiners, representing a sales potential of up to 60 million barrels, with a total value that may exceed $3.1 billion, providing a significant revenue stream for the company.
- Contract Duration: The sales contracts with Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum will remain effective until March 2027, further solidifying Petrobras's position in the international market and enhancing its long-term revenue potential.
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Brazilian Equities Surge as Commodity Prices Rise
- Strong Market Performance: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has surged approximately 20% in early 2026, significantly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which gained only 3%, indicating a robust recovery in Brazilian equities and a resurgence of investor confidence.
- Technical Breakout Signal: The EWZ/SPY relative spread has broken above its long-term downtrend, signaling a potential technical breakout that could attract more capital into Brazilian equities, marking an end to decades of underperformance.
- Macro Analysis Support: Otavio Tavi Costa, CEO of Azuria Capital, noted that Brazil's largest energy company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, is on the verge of a major breakout, indicating that the Brazilian market's rebound is closely tied to a larger shift in global markets, potentially signaling the start of a longer-term structural trend.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts at 22V Research are bullish on Brazil's prospects, suggesting that sectors like materials, energy, and banks will benefit from a weaker dollar, driving capital inflows and creating strong market momentum.
Continue Reading