Arch Capital Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 9th
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ACGL?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement Date: Arch Capital is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 9th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $2.57, reflecting a 13.7% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Arch Capital has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time, showcasing its strong earnings capability and market adaptability, while achieving a 38% beat rate on revenue estimates, indicating revenue growth volatility.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 13 upward revisions and 1 downward revision, reflecting analysts' optimism regarding the company's earnings outlook, whereas revenue estimates have seen no upward revisions and 2 downward revisions, suggesting market caution regarding revenue growth.
- Focus on Buybacks: Despite a reduced emphasis on growth, Seeking Alpha's quantitative rating indicates that Arch Capital remains favored by investors, particularly regarding its buyback plans, highlighting the company's proactive strategy in capital management.
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Analyst Views on ACGL
Wall Street analysts forecast ACGL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ACGL is 107.62 USD with a low forecast of 93.00 USD and a high forecast of 131.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 101.980
Low
93.00
Averages
107.62
High
131.00
Current: 101.980
Low
93.00
Averages
107.62
High
131.00
About ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based company, which provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance through its subsidiaries. The insurance segment consists of the Company’s insurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including construction and national accounts; excess and surplus casualty; professional lines; programs; property, energy, marine and aviation; travel, accident and health; warranty and lender solutions, and others (consisting of alternative markets, excess workers' compensation and surety business). The reinsurance segment consists of its reinsurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including casualty; marine and aviation; other specialty; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe, and others (consisting of life reinsurance and other). The mortgage segment includes its United States primary mortgage insurance business, investment and services related to United States credit-risk transfer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Arch Capital Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 9th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Arch Capital is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 9th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $2.57, reflecting a 13.7% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Arch Capital has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time, showcasing its strong earnings capability and market adaptability, while achieving a 38% beat rate on revenue estimates, indicating revenue growth volatility.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 13 upward revisions and 1 downward revision, reflecting analysts' optimism regarding the company's earnings outlook, whereas revenue estimates have seen no upward revisions and 2 downward revisions, suggesting market caution regarding revenue growth.
- Focus on Buybacks: Despite a reduced emphasis on growth, Seeking Alpha's quantitative rating indicates that Arch Capital remains favored by investors, particularly regarding its buyback plans, highlighting the company's proactive strategy in capital management.
See More
Madison Asset Management Acquires MSA Safety Shares
- New Position Disclosure: Madison Asset Management disclosed a new position in MSA Safety, acquiring 568,244 shares valued at approximately $91 million, representing 1% of its $8.7 billion AUM, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Holding Rankings: Following this acquisition, MSA Safety remains outside Madison's top five holdings, which include ACGL, ROST, PCAR, GOOGL, and APH, reflecting the firm's ongoing commitment to a diversified investment strategy.
- Financial Performance: MSA Safety reported a trailing twelve-month revenue of $1.86 billion and a net income of $279.92 million, with a dividend yield of 1.13%, although its stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past year, suggesting market caution regarding its growth prospects.
- Future Outlook: MSA Safety is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on February 11, where management is expected to provide guidance for 2026, and investors should pay attention to anticipated low-single-digit sales growth for the year ahead.
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ACGL Stock Price Analysis: 52-Week Low at $82.45, High at $97.60
- Price Range Analysis: ACGL's 52-week low stands at $82.45, while the high is $97.60, with the last trade recorded at $90.77, indicating significant price fluctuations within this range and reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Technical Analysis Data: According to data from TechnicalAnalysisChannel.com, ACGL's stock price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, potentially signaling short-term downward pressure, prompting investors to monitor subsequent trends to assess risk.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: With the current stock price nearing the 52-week low, investor confidence in ACGL may wane, particularly against a backdrop of increased overall market volatility, necessitating a careful evaluation of holding strategies.
- Investor Focus: ACGL's stock performance is closely tied to overall market trends, and investors should pay attention to relevant technical indicators and market sentiment to make more informed investment decisions.
See More
Analysts Upgrade Expectations: Top 10 Financial Stocks Shine
- EPS Revision Grades: Aegon Ltd. (AEG) received an A+ rating, indicating strong analyst confidence in its near-term performance, which could drive stock price increases and attract more investor interest.
- Market Confidence Boost: Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) and First Horizon Corporation (FHN) both earned A+ ratings, suggesting analysts are optimistic about their earnings outlook, potentially enhancing their performance in the competitive financial market.
- Industry Leaders: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) also received A+ ratings, reflecting the resilience of large financial institutions in the current economic environment, which may bolster investor confidence in the financial sector.
- Investment Opportunities: Bank of America Corporation (BAC) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) received A ratings, demonstrating analyst recognition of their future profitability, which could attract more capital into these stocks.
See More
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Expected to Report Q3 EPS Growth of 3.54%
- Stock Performance: Arch Capital Group's stock closed at $93.86, reflecting a 2.15% decline from the previous day, trailing the S&P 500's 0.19% gain, indicating market caution regarding its short-term outlook.
- Monthly Growth: Over the past month, Arch Capital's shares have risen by 3.82%, outperforming the Finance sector's 2.08% increase, suggesting a relatively strong position within the industry.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $2.34, up 3.54% year-over-year, with revenue projected at $4.73 billion, indicating a 3.97% increase compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the company's stability in the market.
- Valuation Analysis: Arch Capital is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 10.19, below the industry average of 10.6, highlighting its valuation appeal, although its PEG ratio of 2.17 suggests higher market expectations for future growth.
See More
Arch Capital Sees Surge in Options Volatility as Analysts Raise Earnings Estimates
- Surge in Options Volatility: Arch Capital's March 20, 2026 $125.00 call option exhibits high implied volatility, indicating that investors expect significant price movement, potentially linked to an upcoming event.
- Earnings Estimate Adjustments: Over the past 60 days, three analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Arch Capital's current quarter from $2.28 to $2.34 per share, reflecting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Market Strategy Impact: The high implied volatility often attracts options traders to employ premium selling strategies, which aim to capitalize on time decay, potentially influencing Arch Capital's stock price trajectory.
- Industry Ranking Advantage: Arch Capital ranks in the top 21% of the Property and Casualty Insurance industry, indicating its competitive strength, which may provide investors with confidence for long-term investment.
See More
Arch Capital Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 9th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Arch Capital is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 9th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $2.57, reflecting a 13.7% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained profitability potential.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Arch Capital has consistently beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time, showcasing its strong earnings capability and market adaptability, while achieving a 38% beat rate on revenue estimates, indicating revenue growth volatility.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 13 upward revisions and 1 downward revision, reflecting analysts' optimism regarding the company's earnings outlook, whereas revenue estimates have seen no upward revisions and 2 downward revisions, suggesting market caution regarding revenue growth.
- Focus on Buybacks: Despite a reduced emphasis on growth, Seeking Alpha's quantitative rating indicates that Arch Capital remains favored by investors, particularly regarding its buyback plans, highlighting the company's proactive strategy in capital management.
See More
Madison Asset Management Acquires MSA Safety Shares
- New Position Disclosure: Madison Asset Management disclosed a new position in MSA Safety, acquiring 568,244 shares valued at approximately $91 million, representing 1% of its $8.7 billion AUM, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Holding Rankings: Following this acquisition, MSA Safety remains outside Madison's top five holdings, which include ACGL, ROST, PCAR, GOOGL, and APH, reflecting the firm's ongoing commitment to a diversified investment strategy.
- Financial Performance: MSA Safety reported a trailing twelve-month revenue of $1.86 billion and a net income of $279.92 million, with a dividend yield of 1.13%, although its stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past year, suggesting market caution regarding its growth prospects.
- Future Outlook: MSA Safety is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on February 11, where management is expected to provide guidance for 2026, and investors should pay attention to anticipated low-single-digit sales growth for the year ahead.
See More
ACGL Stock Price Analysis: 52-Week Low at $82.45, High at $97.60
- Price Range Analysis: ACGL's 52-week low stands at $82.45, while the high is $97.60, with the last trade recorded at $90.77, indicating significant price fluctuations within this range and reflecting market caution regarding its future performance.
- Technical Analysis Data: According to data from TechnicalAnalysisChannel.com, ACGL's stock price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, potentially signaling short-term downward pressure, prompting investors to monitor subsequent trends to assess risk.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: With the current stock price nearing the 52-week low, investor confidence in ACGL may wane, particularly against a backdrop of increased overall market volatility, necessitating a careful evaluation of holding strategies.
- Investor Focus: ACGL's stock performance is closely tied to overall market trends, and investors should pay attention to relevant technical indicators and market sentiment to make more informed investment decisions.
See More
Analysts Upgrade Expectations: Top 10 Financial Stocks Shine
- EPS Revision Grades: Aegon Ltd. (AEG) received an A+ rating, indicating strong analyst confidence in its near-term performance, which could drive stock price increases and attract more investor interest.
- Market Confidence Boost: Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) and First Horizon Corporation (FHN) both earned A+ ratings, suggesting analysts are optimistic about their earnings outlook, potentially enhancing their performance in the competitive financial market.
- Industry Leaders: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) also received A+ ratings, reflecting the resilience of large financial institutions in the current economic environment, which may bolster investor confidence in the financial sector.
- Investment Opportunities: Bank of America Corporation (BAC) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) received A ratings, demonstrating analyst recognition of their future profitability, which could attract more capital into these stocks.
See More
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Expected to Report Q3 EPS Growth of 3.54%
- Stock Performance: Arch Capital Group's stock closed at $93.86, reflecting a 2.15% decline from the previous day, trailing the S&P 500's 0.19% gain, indicating market caution regarding its short-term outlook.
- Monthly Growth: Over the past month, Arch Capital's shares have risen by 3.82%, outperforming the Finance sector's 2.08% increase, suggesting a relatively strong position within the industry.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $2.34, up 3.54% year-over-year, with revenue projected at $4.73 billion, indicating a 3.97% increase compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the company's stability in the market.
- Valuation Analysis: Arch Capital is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 10.19, below the industry average of 10.6, highlighting its valuation appeal, although its PEG ratio of 2.17 suggests higher market expectations for future growth.
See More
Arch Capital Sees Surge in Options Volatility as Analysts Raise Earnings Estimates
- Surge in Options Volatility: Arch Capital's March 20, 2026 $125.00 call option exhibits high implied volatility, indicating that investors expect significant price movement, potentially linked to an upcoming event.
- Earnings Estimate Adjustments: Over the past 60 days, three analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Arch Capital's current quarter from $2.28 to $2.34 per share, reflecting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Market Strategy Impact: The high implied volatility often attracts options traders to employ premium selling strategies, which aim to capitalize on time decay, potentially influencing Arch Capital's stock price trajectory.
- Industry Ranking Advantage: Arch Capital ranks in the top 21% of the Property and Casualty Insurance industry, indicating its competitive strength, which may provide investors with confidence for long-term investment.
See More
