ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy MT?
Source: seekingalpha
- Safety Performance Improvement: CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted that all key safety KPIs have improved, particularly in fatality prevention, indicating ongoing progress in safety management that enhances employee morale and company reputation.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, nearly double the margins achieved at previous cyclical lows, reflecting structural improvements in ArcelorMittal's earnings power and boosting investor confidence.
- Strategic Investment Returns: Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion in EBITDA, driven by record performance in Liberia and renewable energy initiatives in India, demonstrating the company's growth potential in emerging markets and the effectiveness of its sustainability strategy.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CFO Genuino Christino projected increased steel production and shipments in 2026, supported by operational improvements and trade protections, indicating the company's ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in the coming years.
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Analyst Views on MT
Wall Street analysts forecast MT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MT is 44.67 USD with a low forecast of 39.00 USD and a high forecast of 49.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.240
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
Current: 57.240
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
About MT
ArcelorMittal SA is a Luxembourg-based holding company. The Company, via its subsidiaries, owns and operates steel, iron ore manufacturing and coal mining facilities in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The Company is organized in five operating segments: NAFTA; Brazil; Europe; Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS), and Mining. The NAFTA, Brazil, Europe, and ACIS segments produce flat, long, and tubular products including slabs, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated steel products, among others. The Mining segment provides steel operations and comprises all mines owned by the Company in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Safety Performance Improvement: CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted that all key safety KPIs have improved, particularly in fatality prevention, indicating ongoing progress in safety management that enhances employee morale and company reputation.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, nearly double the margins achieved at previous cyclical lows, reflecting structural improvements in ArcelorMittal's earnings power and boosting investor confidence.
- Strategic Investment Returns: Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion in EBITDA, driven by record performance in Liberia and renewable energy initiatives in India, demonstrating the company's growth potential in emerging markets and the effectiveness of its sustainability strategy.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CFO Genuino Christino projected increased steel production and shipments in 2026, supported by operational improvements and trade protections, indicating the company's ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in the coming years.
See More
ArcelorMittal Reports Key Highlights for FY 2025
- Safety Performance Improvement: ArcelorMittal demonstrated significant enhancements in key safety KPIs in 2025, focusing on employee health and safety, aiming for zero fatalities in the next two years, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the global steel industry.
- Robust Financial Performance: Despite facing major challenges, ArcelorMittal achieved $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, a 7.3% decline year-over-year, yet the EBITDA per tonne reached $121, reflecting the effectiveness of asset optimization and market diversification, ensuring resilience in uncertain environments.
- Cash Flow and Return on Investment: The company generated $1.9 billion in investable cash flow over the past 12 months and invested $1.1 billion in strategic capex in 2025, repurchasing 8.8 million shares, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities and commitment to shareholders.
- Dividend Policy Adjustment: The Board proposed increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, up from $0.55 in FY 2025, reflecting the ongoing structural improvement in earnings and a focus on shareholder value.
See More
ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Earnings Beat: ArcelorMittal reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.86, exceeding expectations by $0.31, indicating improved profitability despite slightly missing revenue forecasts.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: The company generated $14.97 billion in revenue for Q4, a 1.8% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of expectations by $630 million, while net cash from operating activities reached $3.0 billion, reflecting strong cash management.
- Capex and Dividends: Capital expenditures totaled $1.2 billion in Q4 2025, including $0.3 billion on strategic projects, and the board proposed increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Outlook: Projected capex for 2026 is between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion, with global steel demand (excluding China) expected to grow by 2%, setting a positive tone for production and shipment increases across all regions.
See More
ArcelorMittal Set to Announce Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: ArcelorMittal is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.55, reflecting a 5.8% year-over-year increase, and revenue expected at $15.6 billion, up 6.0%, indicating stable performance in the market.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ArcelorMittal has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, demonstrating reliability in profitability and revenue growth, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions and four downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced two upward and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance, potentially influencing investor decisions.
- Legal Litigation Impact: ArcelorMittal is facing a €7 billion lawsuit from an Italian steel firm while counterclaiming €1.8 billion, which may negatively affect the company's financial standing and market reputation amidst ongoing legal disputes.
See More
ArcelorMittal Signs Amended Mineral Agreement with Liberia
- Agreement Extended to 2050: ArcelorMittal has signed an amended Mineral Development Agreement with the Government of Liberia, extending the concession to 2050 with a 25-year renewal option, ensuring long-term operational stability in the region.
- Investment and Output Increase: The company will pay $200 million for extended mining rights, with iron ore shipments expected to rise from 5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes per annum by 2026, supporting its $1.8 billion expansion project and driving economic growth in Liberia.
- Infrastructure Upgrades: The agreement includes upgrades to rail infrastructure to support up to 30 million tonnes per annum, significantly enhancing the company's logistics efficiency and strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Employment and Government Revenue: ArcelorMittal employs about 8,000 people in Liberia, and the expansion is expected to boost government revenues and promote local economic development, reflecting the company's commitment to social responsibility.
See More
ArcelorMittal Signs Mineral Development Agreement with Liberia
- Agreement Extended to 2050: The Government of Liberia and ArcelorMittal have signed an amendment to the Mineral Development Agreement, extending it to 2050 with a 25-year renewal option, solidifying the company's long-term mining expansion commitment and expected economic growth for Liberia.
- Total Investment of $3.5 Billion: ArcelorMittal's total investment in Liberia reaches $3.5 billion, with $1.8 billion allocated for a new iron ore concentrator, projected to increase annual iron ore shipments from 5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes by 2026, significantly enhancing product quality and market competitiveness.
- Multi-User Rail Infrastructure Agreement: The new agreement includes provisions for multi-user access to the rail infrastructure, requiring other users to invest in expansions to meet their transportation needs, while ArcelorMittal is expanding the railway to potentially support up to 30 million tonnes annually, further strengthening its market position.
- Economic Growth and Employment Opportunities: The new agreement is expected to create more job opportunities in Liberia and enhance local economies, with significant increases in tax revenues and royalties over the next 25 years as iron ore production rises, stimulating the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.
See More
ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Safety Performance Improvement: CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted that all key safety KPIs have improved, particularly in fatality prevention, indicating ongoing progress in safety management that enhances employee morale and company reputation.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, nearly double the margins achieved at previous cyclical lows, reflecting structural improvements in ArcelorMittal's earnings power and boosting investor confidence.
- Strategic Investment Returns: Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion in EBITDA, driven by record performance in Liberia and renewable energy initiatives in India, demonstrating the company's growth potential in emerging markets and the effectiveness of its sustainability strategy.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CFO Genuino Christino projected increased steel production and shipments in 2026, supported by operational improvements and trade protections, indicating the company's ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in the coming years.
See More
ArcelorMittal Reports Key Highlights for FY 2025
- Safety Performance Improvement: ArcelorMittal demonstrated significant enhancements in key safety KPIs in 2025, focusing on employee health and safety, aiming for zero fatalities in the next two years, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the global steel industry.
- Robust Financial Performance: Despite facing major challenges, ArcelorMittal achieved $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, a 7.3% decline year-over-year, yet the EBITDA per tonne reached $121, reflecting the effectiveness of asset optimization and market diversification, ensuring resilience in uncertain environments.
- Cash Flow and Return on Investment: The company generated $1.9 billion in investable cash flow over the past 12 months and invested $1.1 billion in strategic capex in 2025, repurchasing 8.8 million shares, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities and commitment to shareholders.
- Dividend Policy Adjustment: The Board proposed increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, up from $0.55 in FY 2025, reflecting the ongoing structural improvement in earnings and a focus on shareholder value.
See More
ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Earnings Beat: ArcelorMittal reported a Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.86, exceeding expectations by $0.31, indicating improved profitability despite slightly missing revenue forecasts.
- Revenue and Cash Flow: The company generated $14.97 billion in revenue for Q4, a 1.8% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of expectations by $630 million, while net cash from operating activities reached $3.0 billion, reflecting strong cash management.
- Capex and Dividends: Capital expenditures totaled $1.2 billion in Q4 2025, including $0.3 billion on strategic projects, and the board proposed increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Outlook: Projected capex for 2026 is between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion, with global steel demand (excluding China) expected to grow by 2%, setting a positive tone for production and shipment increases across all regions.
See More
ArcelorMittal Set to Announce Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: ArcelorMittal is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.55, reflecting a 5.8% year-over-year increase, and revenue expected at $15.6 billion, up 6.0%, indicating stable performance in the market.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ArcelorMittal has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, demonstrating reliability in profitability and revenue growth, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates saw no upward revisions and four downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced two upward and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance, potentially influencing investor decisions.
- Legal Litigation Impact: ArcelorMittal is facing a €7 billion lawsuit from an Italian steel firm while counterclaiming €1.8 billion, which may negatively affect the company's financial standing and market reputation amidst ongoing legal disputes.
See More
ArcelorMittal Signs Amended Mineral Agreement with Liberia
- Agreement Extended to 2050: ArcelorMittal has signed an amended Mineral Development Agreement with the Government of Liberia, extending the concession to 2050 with a 25-year renewal option, ensuring long-term operational stability in the region.
- Investment and Output Increase: The company will pay $200 million for extended mining rights, with iron ore shipments expected to rise from 5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes per annum by 2026, supporting its $1.8 billion expansion project and driving economic growth in Liberia.
- Infrastructure Upgrades: The agreement includes upgrades to rail infrastructure to support up to 30 million tonnes per annum, significantly enhancing the company's logistics efficiency and strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Employment and Government Revenue: ArcelorMittal employs about 8,000 people in Liberia, and the expansion is expected to boost government revenues and promote local economic development, reflecting the company's commitment to social responsibility.
See More
ArcelorMittal Signs Mineral Development Agreement with Liberia
- Agreement Extended to 2050: The Government of Liberia and ArcelorMittal have signed an amendment to the Mineral Development Agreement, extending it to 2050 with a 25-year renewal option, solidifying the company's long-term mining expansion commitment and expected economic growth for Liberia.
- Total Investment of $3.5 Billion: ArcelorMittal's total investment in Liberia reaches $3.5 billion, with $1.8 billion allocated for a new iron ore concentrator, projected to increase annual iron ore shipments from 5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes by 2026, significantly enhancing product quality and market competitiveness.
- Multi-User Rail Infrastructure Agreement: The new agreement includes provisions for multi-user access to the rail infrastructure, requiring other users to invest in expansions to meet their transportation needs, while ArcelorMittal is expanding the railway to potentially support up to 30 million tonnes annually, further strengthening its market position.
- Economic Growth and Employment Opportunities: The new agreement is expected to create more job opportunities in Liberia and enhance local economies, with significant increases in tax revenues and royalties over the next 25 years as iron ore production rises, stimulating the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.
See More
