Apptopia Releases Q4 Preview for Match Group
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Source: Globenewswire
- Tinder Outperformance: Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index indicates significant growth in Tinder Payers for Q4 2025, despite a 4.2% YoY decline in US downloads; however, engagement metrics, particularly among Gen Z, show improvement with average time spent per DAU rising 13.9% YoY.
- Hinge User Growth Weakness: While Hinge's daily active users increased by 7.1% YoY, the average time spent per DAU among younger users fell by 29.7%, indicating declining engagement, particularly with male users experiencing a steep 25.4% drop.
- Overall User Engagement Trends: Although Tinder's female users saw a slight 2.8% YoY decline in average time spent, there was a 0.7% QoQ increase, suggesting a recovery in user engagement that may exceed market expectations.
- Market Outlook: Apptopia's data reveals that despite challenges for Hinge, the improving trends among younger Tinder users indicate that Match Group may report positive results in the upcoming Q4 earnings, warranting close investor attention to these developments.
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Analyst Views on MTCH
Wall Street analysts forecast MTCH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTCH is 37.17 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 49.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 31.020
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
Current: 31.020
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
About MTCH
Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a provider of digital technologies designed to help people make connections. The Company’s global portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and more, each built to increase its users' likelihood of connecting with others. Its segments include Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen & Emerging, and MG Asia. Tinder is an online dating platform with swipe technology. It offers Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, or Tinder Platinum subscriptions. Hinge is an application focused on millennial and younger generations in English-speaking countries and several other European markets. It offers two premium subscriptions: Hinge+ and HingeX. MG Asia brands primarily focus on serving various Asian and Middle Eastern markets. MG Asia's brands are Azar and The Pairs. Match is an online dating application, and Meetic, a European online dating brand, are included in the Evergreen & Emerging segment.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apptopia Releases Q4 Earnings Preview for Match Group
- Tinder Engagement Recovery: Apptopia's data indicates that Tinder's engagement metrics improved in 2025, particularly with younger users aged 17-25, whose Average Time Spent per DAU increased by 13.9% YoY, suggesting that despite declining downloads, user retention is strengthening, potentially leading to better-than-expected outcomes for Tinder Payers in Q4 2025.
- Continued Download Decline: Although Tinder's downloads in the U.S. fell by 4.2% YoY, there has been a sequential improvement since Q2 2025, which may lay the groundwork for future user growth, even as the overall market environment remains challenging.
- Hinge Growth vs. Engagement Decline: Hinge saw a 7.1% YoY increase in daily active users in the U.S., but the Average Time Spent per DAU for younger users dropped by 29.7%, indicating that while user numbers are rising, declining engagement could impact its long-term growth potential.
- Market Expectations vs. Actual Performance: Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index (MPI) suggests that Match Group's overall performance may exceed Wall Street expectations, particularly against the backdrop of improving engagement metrics for Tinder, prompting investors to closely monitor the upcoming Q4 earnings report to assess future growth potential.
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Apptopia Releases Q4 Preview for Match Group
- Tinder Outperformance: Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index indicates significant growth in Tinder Payers for Q4 2025, despite a 4.2% YoY decline in US downloads; however, engagement metrics, particularly among Gen Z, show improvement with average time spent per DAU rising 13.9% YoY.
- Hinge User Growth Weakness: While Hinge's daily active users increased by 7.1% YoY, the average time spent per DAU among younger users fell by 29.7%, indicating declining engagement, particularly with male users experiencing a steep 25.4% drop.
- Overall User Engagement Trends: Although Tinder's female users saw a slight 2.8% YoY decline in average time spent, there was a 0.7% QoQ increase, suggesting a recovery in user engagement that may exceed market expectations.
- Market Outlook: Apptopia's data reveals that despite challenges for Hinge, the improving trends among younger Tinder users indicate that Match Group may report positive results in the upcoming Q4 earnings, warranting close investor attention to these developments.
Continue Reading