Apptopia Releases Q4 Preview for Match Group
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MTCH?
Source: Globenewswire
- Tinder Outperformance: Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index indicates significant growth in Tinder Payers for Q4 2025, despite a 4.2% YoY decline in US downloads; however, engagement metrics, particularly among Gen Z, show improvement with average time spent per DAU rising 13.9% YoY.
- Hinge User Growth Weakness: While Hinge's daily active users increased by 7.1% YoY, the average time spent per DAU among younger users fell by 29.7%, indicating declining engagement, particularly with male users experiencing a steep 25.4% drop.
- Overall User Engagement Trends: Although Tinder's female users saw a slight 2.8% YoY decline in average time spent, there was a 0.7% QoQ increase, suggesting a recovery in user engagement that may exceed market expectations.
- Market Outlook: Apptopia's data reveals that despite challenges for Hinge, the improving trends among younger Tinder users indicate that Match Group may report positive results in the upcoming Q4 earnings, warranting close investor attention to these developments.
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Analyst Views on MTCH
Wall Street analysts forecast MTCH stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 31.140
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
Current: 31.140
Low
33.00
Averages
37.17
High
49.00
About MTCH
Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a provider of digital technologies designed to help people make connections. The Company’s global portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and more, each built to increase its users' likelihood of connecting with others. Its segments include Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen & Emerging, and MG Asia. Tinder is an online dating platform with swipe technology. It offers Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, or Tinder Platinum subscriptions. Hinge is an application focused on millennial and younger generations in English-speaking countries and several other European markets. It offers two premium subscriptions: Hinge+ and HingeX. MG Asia brands primarily focus on serving various Asian and Middle Eastern markets. MG Asia's brands are Azar and The Pairs. Match is an online dating application, and Meetic, a European online dating brand, are included in the Evergreen & Emerging segment.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Privacy Lawsuit: The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has filed a lawsuit against OkCupid and its parent company Match Group Americas, alleging that they shared nearly three million user photos and location data without user consent, severely violating privacy rights.
- Data Sharing Context: The relationship between OkCupid's founders and the third-party data recipient, who were financial investors, led to the provision of extensive user data without any formal or contractual restrictions, potentially undermining user trust.
- Potential Penalty Risks: The FTC stated that as part of the settlement, OkCupid and Match Group will be prohibited from misrepresenting their privacy policies and could face monetary penalties for future violations, which could negatively impact the company's financial health.
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- Inflationary Pressure: The high oil prices are likely to drive overall inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies, which has led to a widespread market decline as investors react to potential rate hikes.
- Supply Chain Disruption: Currently, about 20% of oil supply is disrupted due to the largest supply shock in history, raising fears about future supply constraints and potentially leading to further increases in energy costs that could impact profitability across various sectors.
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- User Growth Potential: The analyst highlighted that if Match's product usage translates into accelerated monthly active user growth, the stock is expected to re-rate over the next few quarters, showcasing strong market potential.
- Stock Performance Recovery: In morning trading, Match Group's shares rose by 2% to $30.73, reflecting a positive market response to its product innovation and user growth, which boosts investor confidence.
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See More
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See More
