Analyst Claims Oracle's AI Expenses Are Being 'Underestimated'

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

ORCL-0.57%

DJIA-0.14%

MS-2.21%

Source: Barron's

Updated: 14h ago

0mins

Source: Barron's

Stock Pressure: Oracle's stock is expected to face pressure due to rising costs associated with building artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Analyst Insight: A Morgan Stanley analyst has highlighted these concerns regarding Oracle's financial outlook.

ORCL

$177.16+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on ORCL

Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ORCL is 309.59 USD with a low forecast of 180.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

34 Analyst Rating

25 Buy

9 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 178.180

Low

180.00

Averages

309.59

High

400.00

Current: 178.180

Low

180.00

Averages

309.59

High

400.00

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$320 -> $213

2026-01-23

New

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$320 -> $213

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

New

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $213 from $320 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. GPU-as-a-Service is "a sizable revenue opportunity," but the firm's work suggests the buildout will push Oracle EPS below targets and drive materially higher funding needs, the analyst says. The firm struggles to see a viable path to Oracle's EPS targets, which is a view factored into the current share price and reduced price target, the analyst tells investors. Meanwhile, even after underperformance, the firm thinks key risks, including its own new higher forecasts for funding needs and leverage, are not reflected in spreads from the credit perspective, so it recommends buying CDS and selling benchmark bonds, the analyst added.

Guggenheim

maintain

$400

2026-01-20

New

Reason

Guggenheim

Price Target

$400

2026-01-20

New

maintain

Reason

Guggenheim contends that Oracle will likely maintain its investment grade credit rating, even as capex ramps up earlier than the Street and the bond rating agencies expect, and argues that Oracle remains "the best opportunity in the Software sector." The firm believes "even more strongly" that this is a "decade stock" that will grow EPS at hyper rates, and free cash flow will "eventually waterfall into very significant numbers," but investors will have to wait for that to happen. While "we keep calling this a decade stock (because we believe it is), we expect the numbers to be irrefutable in half that time and be obvious long before that," adds the analyst, who notes that Oracle remains his Best Idea with a $400 price target and Buy rating.

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UBS

Buy

downgrade

$325 -> $280

2026-01-05

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$325 -> $280

2026-01-05

downgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $280 from $325. Oracle's 41% drop from mid-September highs reflects investor concerns about its outlook and OpenAI's impact on related stocks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite this, UBS reaffirms its Buy rating given pending revenue growth, the ramp of Abilene data center capacity, potential reversal of cautious OpenAI sentiment in 1H26, and largely embedded credit/financing risks.

RBC Capital

Rishi Jaluria

Sector Perform

downgrade

$250 -> $195

2026-01-05

Reason

RBC Capital

Rishi Jaluria

Price Target

$250 -> $195

2026-01-05

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $195 from $250 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. 2026 is likely to be a year when AI tailwinds become more evident for companies well positioned for enterprise AI adoption, while less prepared peers may remain pressured by the "AI is the death of software" narrative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Enterprise spending appears to be stabilizing and improving in select areas, with GenAI driving innovation even as management teams remain conservative in early 2026 guidance, the firm says.

About ORCL

Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.