Analysis of Upstart's Future Growth Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1d ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Annual Growth Rate: Upstart has achieved a 100-fold increase over 25 years, implying a 20% annualized growth rate, which is double the historical average of the S&P 500, indicating strong long-term investment appeal.
- Revenue Growth: In Q3 2025, Upstart's revenue surged 71% year-over-year, driven by a 128% increase in transaction volume, reflecting robust performance in personal loans and emerging auto loan markets, boosting market confidence.
- Market Outlook: Upstart's total addressable market is measured in trillions of dollars, leveraging AI to collaborate with banks and credit unions to provide a strong value proposition to borrowers, signaling significant future growth potential.
- Risk Warning: Despite Upstart's impressive growth, the uncertainty surrounding its long-term success is high, particularly during the rising interest rate periods of 2022 and 2023 when revenue growth sharply declined, necessitating cautious investment.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPST is 56.73 USD with a low forecast of 20.00 USD and a high forecast of 80.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.165
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 43.165
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart Holdings Shows Promising Growth Potential Ahead
- Loan Approval Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm analyzing over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, significantly enhancing its competitiveness in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: Over 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating growing recognition and influence of its platform within the financial industry.
- Strong Revenue Growth: For the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning a profit and demonstrating the sustainability of its business model and strong market demand.
- Cautious Market Reaction: Despite analysts projecting a per-share profit of $2.38 in 2026, the current stock price trades below 20 times earnings, reflecting market concerns over short-term economic headwinds, necessitating patience from investors for the realization of profit potential.
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Upstart's New Credit Scoring Algorithm Shows Potential
- Credit Scoring Innovation: Upstart's use of an AI algorithm that considers over 2,500 variables increases loan approval rates by 43% without additional defaults, showcasing its competitive edge in the credit market.
- Customer Base Expansion: More than 100 banks and credit unions are now regular customers of Upstart, indicating a growing market recognition and demand for its innovative lending platform.
- Financial Recovery: In the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart's revenue surged nearly 80% year-over-year, successfully turning profitable, with strong growth expected to continue into 2026, potentially driving stock price recovery.
- Market Caution: Despite analysts projecting earnings of $2.38 per share and the stock trading at less than 20 times earnings, recent economic warnings have led to lower-than-expected loan originations, resulting in cautious market sentiment that has prevented stock price rebound.
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