Altria's Cigarette Volumes Decline 10.6%, Increasing Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Volume Decline: Altria's cigarette volumes dropped 10.6% in the first nine months of 2025, following declines of 10.2% in 2024 and 9.9% in 2023, indicating a troubling long-term trend that could impact future market share and profitability.
- High Dividend Risks: Despite offering a 6.9% dividend yield, Altria's fundamental weaknesses and inability to find new products to offset declining volumes may lead conservative investors to lose confidence in its future prospects.
- Competitor Performance: In contrast, Clorox boasts a 4.5% dividend yield and holds leading positions in several consumer goods sectors, showcasing its competitive advantage in the market, which may attract income-seeking investors.
- Innovation-Driven Growth: Clorox continues to innovate, such as rolling out scented trash bags that merge cleaning product scents, demonstrating its flexibility and adaptability in addressing market challenges, potentially fueling future growth.
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Analyst Views on MO
Wall Street analysts forecast MO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MO is 65.60 USD with a low forecast of 57.00 USD and a high forecast of 72.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 63.130
Low
57.00
Averages
65.60
High
72.00
Current: 63.130
Low
57.00
Averages
65.60
High
72.00
About MO
Altria Group, Inc. operates a portfolio of tobacco products for United States tobacco consumers aged 21+. Its segments include smokeable products and oral tobacco products. The smokeable products segment consists of combustible cigarettes and machine-made large cigars. The oral tobacco products segment includes moist smokeless tobacco (MST) products and oral nicotine pouches. Its wholly owned subsidiaries include manufacturers of both combustible and smoke-free products. In combustibles, it owns Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), and John Middleton Co. (Middleton), which are cigarette manufacturers. Its smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), a global MST manufacturer, Helix Innovations LLC (Helix), a manufacturer of oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY, LLC (NJOY), an e-vapor manufacturer with a commercialized product portfolio. The brand portfolios of its operating companies include Marlboro, Black & Mild, Copenhagen, Skoal, on! and NJOY.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ALTRIA STOCK FALLS 1.3% FOLLOWING Q4 EPS DISAPPOINTMENT
Austrian Economic Performance: Austria's economy has experienced a downturn, with a reported decline of 1.3% following the fourth quarter.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss: The decline in economic performance coincides with a miss in earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the quarter.
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Altria Group Faces Alarming Market Share Losses
- Market Share Decline: Altria Group's domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell by 7.9% in Q4, indicating a continued decline in smoking rates in the U.S., which puts pressure on its profitability.
- Marlboro Brand Struggles: Altria's Marlboro brand saw its retail market share drop to 39.8%, a year-over-year decline of 1.5 percentage points, reflecting weakened brand competitiveness.
- Oral Tobacco Product Setbacks: Despite rising demand for oral tobacco products, Altria's shipment volumes fell by 6.3%, with its share in the fast-growing nicotine pouch market declining by 5.3 percentage points to 13.4%, indicating competitive challenges.
- Stable Profits: Although shipment volumes decreased, Altria's net revenues declined by less than 1% to $5.1 billion, largely due to price hikes offsetting lower volumes, with management projecting adjusted earnings growth of 2.5% to 5.5% in 2026.
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