ADM Reports Double-Digit Revenue Decline and Profit Drop in Q4
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy ADM?
Source: seekingalpha
- Revenue and Profit Decline: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) reported a 13.7% revenue drop to $18.56 billion in Q4, missing expectations by $2.5 billion, while adjusted profits fell 24% to $0.87 per share, highlighting significant market challenges.
- Dividend Growth Continues: Despite these challenges, ADM raised its quarterly dividend by 2% due to strong cash flow, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth, which underscores the company's commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
- Cautious Future Outlook: For FY26, ADM set profit guidance between $3.60 and $4.25 per share, with the lower end reflecting uncertainties in U.S. biofuel policies, while the upper end assumes continued crush margin expansion and strengthening customer demand, indicating a cautious optimism for the future.
- Cost Savings Initiative: CEO Juan Luciano announced plans to achieve $500 to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over the next three to five years starting in 2025, which is expected to improve the operating environment in 2026 amid evolving global trade conditions.
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Analyst Views on ADM
Wall Street analysts forecast ADM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADM is 56.80 USD with a low forecast of 50.00 USD and a high forecast of 61.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
2 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 68.080
Low
50.00
Averages
56.80
High
61.00
Current: 68.080
Low
50.00
Averages
56.80
High
61.00
About ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. It is a human and animal nutrition provider. Its Ag Services and Oilseeds segment includes global activities related to the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, and the crushing and further processing of oilseeds, such as soybeans and soft seeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. Carbohydrate Solutions segment is engaged in corn and wheat wet and dry milling and other activities. Nutrition segment is engaged in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of a wide array of ingredients and solutions, including plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ADM Set to Announce Q4 Earnings with Mixed Estimates
- Earnings Announcement Date: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 3rd before market open, with consensus EPS estimates at $0.80, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 29.8%, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $21.06 billion, down 2.0% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in a low-margin environment that could affect investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ADM has only beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has not exceeded revenue estimates, indicating considerable volatility in its performance that may impact market expectations for future results.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with 8 downward adjustments, while revenue estimates saw 2 upward and 3 downward revisions, suggesting a weakening market confidence in ADM's future profitability.
See More
ADM Reports Double-Digit Revenue Decline and Profit Drop in Q4
- Revenue and Profit Decline: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) reported a 13.7% revenue drop to $18.56 billion in Q4, missing expectations by $2.5 billion, while adjusted profits fell 24% to $0.87 per share, highlighting significant market challenges.
- Dividend Growth Continues: Despite these challenges, ADM raised its quarterly dividend by 2% due to strong cash flow, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth, which underscores the company's commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
- Cautious Future Outlook: For FY26, ADM set profit guidance between $3.60 and $4.25 per share, with the lower end reflecting uncertainties in U.S. biofuel policies, while the upper end assumes continued crush margin expansion and strengthening customer demand, indicating a cautious optimism for the future.
- Cost Savings Initiative: CEO Juan Luciano announced plans to achieve $500 to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over the next three to five years starting in 2025, which is expected to improve the operating environment in 2026 amid evolving global trade conditions.
See More
ADM Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase to $0.52 per Share
- Dividend Increase: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) announces a quarterly dividend of $0.52 per share, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous $0.51, demonstrating the company's stability in a low-margin environment.
- Yield Performance: The forward yield stands at 3.06%, providing investors with a relatively attractive return despite facing policy risks and market volatility.
- Shareholder Arrangements: The dividend is payable on March 10, with a record date of February 17 and an ex-dividend date also on February 17, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Market Response: Despite a guidance cut in Q3, ADM's non-GAAP EPS of $0.87 beats expectations by $0.07, showcasing the company's resilience amid challenges.
See More
Archer-Daniels-Midland Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Performance: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.87, beating expectations by $0.07, although its revenue of $18.56 billion missed by $2.5 billion, indicating resilience in a low-margin environment.
- Guidance Cut: Despite another guidance cut in Q3, ADM demonstrates some market adaptability, suggesting that the company's strategies to cope with policy risks may impact future profitability.
- Policy Risks: The increasing policy risks faced by the company could threaten its low-margin business, prompting investors to monitor how regulatory changes might affect long-term growth prospects.
- Industry Conference: At the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, ADM showcased its business strategies, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining competitive advantage through innovation and efficiency improvements despite ongoing challenges.
See More
ADM Reports Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook
- Earnings Highlights: ADM reported Q4 2025 net earnings of $456 million and adjusted net earnings of $422 million, with GAAP EPS of $0.94, reflecting a 20% decline year-over-year amid global trade policy uncertainties impacting operations.
- Full-Year Performance: For the full year 2025, net earnings totaled $1.1 billion with adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion, and GAAP EPS of $2.23, down 39% from the previous year, indicating resilience despite challenging market conditions.
- 2026 Outlook: ADM anticipates adjusted EPS for 2026 to range between $3.60 and $4.25, with the lower end reflecting ongoing U.S. biofuel policy deferrals, while the upper end assumes continued crush margin expansion and strengthening customer demand, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- Dividend Increase: ADM announced a 2% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the 53rd consecutive year of growth, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns even in the face of operational challenges, thereby reinforcing investor trust.
See More
Archer-Daniels-Midland Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.87, beating expectations by $0.07, indicating resilience in a low-margin environment.
- Significant Revenue Decline: Despite the earnings beat, ADM's revenue fell to $18.56 billion, a 13.7% year-over-year decline, missing the market expectation of $18.71 billion, reflecting weak market demand and policy risks.
- Cautious Future Outlook: ADM expects adjusted EPS for 2026 to range from $3.60 to $4.25, with the lower end impacted by deferred U.S. biofuel policies and flat crush margins, while the upper end assumes margin expansion and increased customer demand.
- Heightened Policy Risks: The company faces significant policy risks, particularly as a low-margin dividend king, which may affect future profitability and shareholder returns.
See More
ADM Set to Announce Q4 Earnings with Mixed Estimates
- Earnings Announcement Date: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 3rd before market open, with consensus EPS estimates at $0.80, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 29.8%, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: The anticipated revenue for Q4 stands at $21.06 billion, down 2.0% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in a low-margin environment that could affect investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, ADM has only beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has not exceeded revenue estimates, indicating considerable volatility in its performance that may impact market expectations for future results.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with 8 downward adjustments, while revenue estimates saw 2 upward and 3 downward revisions, suggesting a weakening market confidence in ADM's future profitability.
See More
ADM Reports Double-Digit Revenue Decline and Profit Drop in Q4
- Revenue and Profit Decline: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) reported a 13.7% revenue drop to $18.56 billion in Q4, missing expectations by $2.5 billion, while adjusted profits fell 24% to $0.87 per share, highlighting significant market challenges.
- Dividend Growth Continues: Despite these challenges, ADM raised its quarterly dividend by 2% due to strong cash flow, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth, which underscores the company's commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
- Cautious Future Outlook: For FY26, ADM set profit guidance between $3.60 and $4.25 per share, with the lower end reflecting uncertainties in U.S. biofuel policies, while the upper end assumes continued crush margin expansion and strengthening customer demand, indicating a cautious optimism for the future.
- Cost Savings Initiative: CEO Juan Luciano announced plans to achieve $500 to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over the next three to five years starting in 2025, which is expected to improve the operating environment in 2026 amid evolving global trade conditions.
See More
ADM Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase to $0.52 per Share
- Dividend Increase: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) announces a quarterly dividend of $0.52 per share, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous $0.51, demonstrating the company's stability in a low-margin environment.
- Yield Performance: The forward yield stands at 3.06%, providing investors with a relatively attractive return despite facing policy risks and market volatility.
- Shareholder Arrangements: The dividend is payable on March 10, with a record date of February 17 and an ex-dividend date also on February 17, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Market Response: Despite a guidance cut in Q3, ADM's non-GAAP EPS of $0.87 beats expectations by $0.07, showcasing the company's resilience amid challenges.
See More
Archer-Daniels-Midland Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Performance: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.87, beating expectations by $0.07, although its revenue of $18.56 billion missed by $2.5 billion, indicating resilience in a low-margin environment.
- Guidance Cut: Despite another guidance cut in Q3, ADM demonstrates some market adaptability, suggesting that the company's strategies to cope with policy risks may impact future profitability.
- Policy Risks: The increasing policy risks faced by the company could threaten its low-margin business, prompting investors to monitor how regulatory changes might affect long-term growth prospects.
- Industry Conference: At the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, ADM showcased its business strategies, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining competitive advantage through innovation and efficiency improvements despite ongoing challenges.
See More
ADM Reports Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook
- Earnings Highlights: ADM reported Q4 2025 net earnings of $456 million and adjusted net earnings of $422 million, with GAAP EPS of $0.94, reflecting a 20% decline year-over-year amid global trade policy uncertainties impacting operations.
- Full-Year Performance: For the full year 2025, net earnings totaled $1.1 billion with adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion, and GAAP EPS of $2.23, down 39% from the previous year, indicating resilience despite challenging market conditions.
- 2026 Outlook: ADM anticipates adjusted EPS for 2026 to range between $3.60 and $4.25, with the lower end reflecting ongoing U.S. biofuel policy deferrals, while the upper end assumes continued crush margin expansion and strengthening customer demand, showcasing confidence in future growth.
- Dividend Increase: ADM announced a 2% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the 53rd consecutive year of growth, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns even in the face of operational challenges, thereby reinforcing investor trust.
See More
Archer-Daniels-Midland Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.87, beating expectations by $0.07, indicating resilience in a low-margin environment.
- Significant Revenue Decline: Despite the earnings beat, ADM's revenue fell to $18.56 billion, a 13.7% year-over-year decline, missing the market expectation of $18.71 billion, reflecting weak market demand and policy risks.
- Cautious Future Outlook: ADM expects adjusted EPS for 2026 to range from $3.60 to $4.25, with the lower end impacted by deferred U.S. biofuel policies and flat crush margins, while the upper end assumes margin expansion and increased customer demand.
- Heightened Policy Risks: The company faces significant policy risks, particularly as a low-margin dividend king, which may affect future profitability and shareholder returns.
See More
