Dow Theory and Market Confirmation: The bull market is three years old, but Dow Theory suggests it may not be fully confirmed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average have not been trending in unison, with transports lagging significantly.
Transport Sector Struggles: The Dow Transports are down 2.3% year-to-date, with only 9 out of 20 stocks in the index performing well, largely affected by tariff uncertainties impacting airlines, railroads, and trucking companies.
Focus on J.B. Hunt Transport Services: J.B. Hunt is expected to report soon, but its stock has been on a downward trend, with analysts suggesting a potential better entry point around $125, as the stock struggles to gain traction.
Future Outlook for Trucking Stocks: A turnaround in the transport sector may require more certainty regarding trade, with a need for stocks to clear the $150 level to join the ongoing bull market, which would be favorable for Dow Theorists.
Wall Street analysts forecast ODFL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ODFL is 162.18 USD with a low forecast of 114.00 USD and a high forecast of 196.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ODFL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ODFL is 162.18 USD with a low forecast of 114.00 USD and a high forecast of 196.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
8 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 178.250
Low
114.00
Averages
162.18
High
196.00
Current: 178.250
Low
114.00
Averages
162.18
High
196.00
Stifel
Buy
maintain
$173 -> $188
2026-01-21
New
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$173 -> $188
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Old Dominion to $188 from $173 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's base case expectation is for mid-to-high single digit percentage organic and regulatory-driven attrition in long-haul over-the-road supply this year and while it expects significantly less supply impact for Less-than-Truckload than it does in its Truckload group coverage, the firm believes tightening in truckload creates marginal demand spillover, as well as pricing support, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 earnings preview for the group.
TD Cowen
Hold
maintain
$154 -> $167
2026-01-09
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$154 -> $167
2026-01-09
maintain
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Old Dominion to $167 from $154 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the trucking group as part of a Q4 preview. The quarter likely saw modest peak and limited project work, but a carrier survey corroborates regulation-driven capacity attrition, which bodes well for 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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BofA
Ken Hoexter
Neutral
maintain
$165 -> $180
2026-01-09
Reason
BofA
Ken Hoexter
Price Target
$165 -> $180
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Ken Hoexter raised the firm's price target on Old Dominion to $180 from $165 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm looks to expand its exposure to cyclical Transport stocks into 2026, with a focus on cost conscious AI-enabled share gainers, the analyst tells investors in a year-ahead note on the sector. Demand should be aided by the Big Beautiful Bill's benefits of bonus depreciation, leading to infrastructure investments, $1.4 trillion in expected expenditures over the next three years on data centers and power supply, lower interest rates and potential flow through to the housing and forest product segments, the analyst says.
Wolfe Research
Underperform
downgrade
$141 -> $138
2026-01-08
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
$141 -> $138
2026-01-08
downgrade
Underperform
Reason
Wolfe Research lowered the firm's price target on Old Dominion to $138 from $141 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm said that transport has been stuck in a prolonged and muted cycle with the ISM manufacturing index below 50 for 36 of the past 38 months, and LTL tonnage has been negative year-over-year for 22 of the past 23 months. That said, truckload spot rates have materially outperformed normal seasonality for the past six weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier. The Company provides regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Its service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. It offers a range of value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting. It operates approximately 261 service center locations, of which it owns 239 and leased 22. Its service centers are responsible for the pickup and delivery of freight within their local service area. Its systems allow it to offer its customers access to information, such as freight tracking, shipping documents, rate quotes, rate databases and account activity. Its integrated systems and customer service department provide its customers with a single point of contact to access information.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
