Top Stock Picks: BofA Securities analyst Rafe Jadrosich highlights his favorite homebuilders, including Toll Brothers, Lennar, NVR, PulteGroup, and D.R. Horton, focusing on their market positions and strategies.
Toll Brothers Recommendation: Jadrosich favors Toll Brothers due to its attractive valuation, strong return on equity, and focus on luxury homes, which are less sensitive to market fluctuations compared to other builders.
Pulte and NVR Outlook: Both PulteGroup and NVR are also recommended as buys, primarily because they operate as build-to-order builders, which are expected to be more resilient in the current market conditions.
Cautious Stance on Lennar and D.R. Horton: The analyst maintains a neutral outlook on Lennar and D.R. Horton, citing concerns over the speculative side of the market and elevated inventory levels, particularly in the Southeast.
Wall Street analysts forecast NVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVR is 8658 USD with a low forecast of 7910 USD and a high forecast of 9200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NVR is 8658 USD with a low forecast of 7910 USD and a high forecast of 9200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 7762.310
Low
7910
Averages
8658
High
9200
Current: 7762.310
Low
7910
Averages
8658
High
9200
BofA
Buy
downgrade
2026-01-16
Reason
BofA
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on NVR to $8,400 from $9,200 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After underperforming the market in 2025, homebuilder stocks have rallied sharply year-to-date, but the firm believes weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation and a more competitive selling environment driven by elevated new and resale inventory will pressure fundamentals through 2026 and make it a "reset year for homebuilders," the analyst tells investors in a year ahead note on the group.
UBS
John Lovallo
Neutral
downgrade
2026-01-06
Reason
UBS
John Lovallo
Price Target
2026-01-06
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst John Lovallo lowered the firm's price target on NVR to $8,150 from $8,500 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. UBS believes 2026 is poised to be a better year for homebuilding, as builders have moderated production, helping to stabilize/reduce inventory in certain key markets, while overall housing supply remains constrained relative to history, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm thinks incremental improvement in the macro could catalyze sentiment and the stocks.
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JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
2025-12-04
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-04
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on NVR to $7,910 from $7,900 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm maintains a cautious stance on the homebuilders sector for 2026. JPMorgan expects an unfavorable demand/supply backdrop to bring additional pressure and downside risk for builder fundamentals. Builder fundamentals are likely to remain "relatively weak" in 2026, with persisting downside risk to estimates due to a still challenged demand/supply industry backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
UBS
John Lovallo
Neutral
maintain
2025-10-23
Reason
UBS
John Lovallo
Price Target
2025-10-23
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst John Lovallo raised the firm's price target on NVR to $8,500 from $8,150 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the company's earnings report.
About NVR
NVR, Inc. is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings. The Company operates through two segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking. The homebuilding operations primarily construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland Homes, and operate in 36 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.). Its mortgage banking operations primarily operate in the homebuilding operations market. Its mortgage banking business consists of origination fees, gains on sales of loans, and title fees. The homebuilding segments are comprised of operating divisions, such as Mid Atlantic, North East, Mid East and South East. Its Mid Atlantic divisions operate in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware and Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.). Its North East division operates in New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
