NRG Energy Inc. shares fell by 5.01% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.
The decline follows PJM Interconnection's recent announcement of a downward revision in its summer 2027 peak demand forecast, which was adjusted from 164 GW to approximately 160 GW. This adjustment raises concerns about future electricity demand, particularly for power producers like NRG Energy, which may face revenue fluctuations due to the anticipated impact on capacity auctions. The market reacted negatively, with NRG Energy's stock dropping alongside other major independent power producers.
This situation highlights the challenges facing NRG Energy in a shifting market landscape, as the company navigates potential impacts on its revenue streams and stock performance amid evolving demand forecasts.
Wall Street analysts forecast NRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRG is 200.75 USD with a low forecast of 145.00 USD and a high forecast of 240.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRG is 200.75 USD with a low forecast of 145.00 USD and a high forecast of 240.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 153.720
Low
145.00
Averages
200.75
High
240.00
Current: 153.720
Low
145.00
Averages
200.75
High
240.00
Jefferies
Buy
downgrade
$198 -> $181
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$198 -> $181
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on NRG Energy to $181 from $198 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm continues to see NRG as "the best positioned IPP to benefit" from the PJM backstop procurement process with its new generation and additionality strategy, it moderates estimates for lower Texas power and PJM long-term capacity assumptions. With the LS Power deal close imminent, the firm expects a comprehensive long-term growth rate refresh by the late February earnings call, the analyst added.
Wells Fargo
Shahriar Pourreza
Overweight
maintain
$202 -> $206
2026-01-20
Reason
Wells Fargo
Shahriar Pourreza
Price Target
$202 -> $206
2026-01-20
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Shahriar Pourreza raised the firm's price target on NRG Energy to $206 from $202 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. There isn't a giga-deal on the board for NRG, and the team is not far behind the group despite investors being slow to catch up, the firm notes.
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UBS
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$211
2025-12-09
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$211
2025-12-09
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
UBS initiated coverage of NRG Energy with a Buy rating and $211 price target. The firm highlights NRG as a standout Independent Power Producer due to strong free cash flow, diverse growth drivers, and a balanced business model that isn't reliant solely on data-center demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Its scale, integrated retail presence, and multiple expansion avenues support an estimated 27% upside from current levels, the firm says.
BMO Capital
Market Perform
maintain
$185 -> $195
2025-11-07
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$185 -> $195
2025-11-07
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on NRG Energy to $195 from $185 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company delivered another solid quarter with Q3 EBITDA up 14% y/y, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About NRG
NRG Energy, Inc. is an energy and home services company. The Company’s businesses are the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial and wholesale customers, supported by its wholesale electric generation, as well as the sale of smart home products and services. Across the United States and Canada, the Company delivers sustainable solutions, predominately under brand names such as NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. Its segments include Texas, East, West/Services/Other, Vivint Smart Home and Corporate activities. It sells a variety of products to residential and small commercial customers, including retail electricity and energy management, natural gas, line and surge protection products and home protection products, repair and maintenance, and carbon offsets. It owns and leases a diversified wholesale generation portfolio with approximately 13 gigawatts of fossil fuel and renewable generation capacity at 18 plants.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
