MP Materials Faces Stock Decline Amid Competitive Pressures
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MP?
Source: Benzinga
MP Materials Corp's stock fell 5.83% during regular trading, crossing below its 20-day SMA, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The decline follows increased scrutiny of MP Materials' competitive position after USA Rare Earth secured a $1.6 billion funding agreement from the Commerce Department, which has raised concerns about MP's market share in the rare earth sector. Despite the upcoming earnings report expected to show significant improvement, the stock's performance indicates challenges in maintaining investor confidence amid strong competition.
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 56.550
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Importance of MP Materials: MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the U.S., valued at $11 billion with an 8.49% stock increase to $61.35; it secured a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense and a $500 million partnership with Apple, ensuring stability in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain.
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- Government Backing: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense acquired a 15% equity stake, becoming the largest shareholder, which underscores the government's commitment to securing rare earth supply chains and further solidifies the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: MP Materials entered a landmark $500 billion partnership with Apple to produce rare earth magnets from recycled materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities and market share while promoting sustainability.
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- Importance of MP Materials: MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the U.S., valued at $11 billion with an 8.49% stock increase to $61.35; it secured a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense and a $500 million partnership with Apple, ensuring stability in the U.S. rare-earth supply chain.
- USA Rare Earth Development: USA Rare Earth controls the Round Top deposit in Texas, valued at $3.2 billion with a 6.02% stock increase to $21.84; although still in the construction phase, it has raised $3.1 billion to support the establishment of a domestic rare-earth supply chain.
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See More
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- Scale of Government Investment: The Trump administration's equity stakes in at least 10 companies, including USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, represent an unprecedented scale aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths, potentially altering market competition dynamics.
- Legal Risk Concerns: The lack of a clear legal basis for these investments exposes the Trump administration to lawsuits from competitors and political scrutiny during potential regime changes, increasing operational uncertainties for the involved companies.
- Capital Allocation Risks: Government equity stakes raise concerns about capital misallocation, as funds may flow to less competitive companies, which could adversely affect the overall health of the market and investor confidence.
- Corporate Silence: Despite some executives expressing distaste for government intervention, most corporate leaders remain silent, fearing that public opposition could strain relations with the administration and negatively impact shareholder interests.
See More
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- Surge in Investments: The Trump administration has made unprecedented equity investments in at least 10 companies over the past year, including critical minerals and chipmakers, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China, indicating a proactive government role in economic strategy.
- U.S. Steel Golden Share: The administration secured a golden share in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving Nippon Steel's acquisition, granting the president veto power over key business decisions, which ensures stability and growth in the U.S. steel industry, reflecting direct government intervention in vital sectors.
- Strategic Deal with MP Materials: The Defense Department struck a landmark deal with MP Materials, investing $400 million in preferred stock with rights to purchase additional shares, positioning the Pentagon as the largest single shareholder and further solidifying U.S. dominance in the rare earth mining sector.
- L3Harris and Defense Partnership: L3Harris announced a proposed partnership with the U.S. government, where the Pentagon will invest $1 billion in its rocket motor business, with plans for an IPO in the second half of 2026, allowing the Pentagon's investment to convert into common equity, enhancing the capital base of the defense industry.
See More
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- Stock Surge: MP Materials experienced a staggering over 500% increase in stock price in 2025, ending the year with a remarkable 223.8% gain, reflecting strong market demand and investor confidence despite a slight pullback.
- Government Backing: In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense acquired a 15% equity stake, becoming the largest shareholder, which underscores the government's commitment to securing rare earth supply chains and further solidifies the company's market position.
- Strategic Partnership: MP Materials entered a landmark $500 billion partnership with Apple to produce rare earth magnets from recycled materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities and market share while promoting sustainability.
- Future Outlook: With the commissioning of its heavy rare earth separation facility, MP Materials anticipates achieving a production capacity of 10,000 metric tons of magnets in 2026, marking a successful transition from mining to manufacturing, and suggesting potential for continued stock price appreciation.
See More
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Technological Advancements: It highlights the rapid advancements in robotics technology that are bringing us closer to a future where robots could significantly impact daily life and work environments.
See More
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